Apr 06, 2022
The Masters Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds
Our VI PGA handicapping experts have compiled their best props bets for The Masters, which is set to take place on Thursday, April 7 and ends on Sunday, April 10 at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Ga.
The first major of the 2022 PGA Tour season is here, and we'll not only focus on Masters winners and matchup picks, but also prop picks, too.
In the winners and matchup picks, we focus on Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, SG: Putting and Driving Distance as key areas of focus to start. Of course, there is a lot more to things, including past history and other factors. Sometimes it's just a gut play, too. Picking winners outright for golf tournaments is like picking a needle out of a haystack. However, there are plenty of prop bets which can make you much more money on an easier basis.
- Sam Burns - Top Debutant (+350)
- Bubba Watson - Top Lefty (+175)
- Mackenzie Hughes - Top Canadian (+200)
- Guido Migliozzi - Top Italian (+160)
- Justin Thomas - Bogey-Free Round (+300)
- Bernhard Langer - Missed Cut (-190)
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SAM BURNS - TOP DEBUTANT (+350)
Burns will make his first appearance at Augusta National, and we haven't had a guy win The Masters in his first-ever appearance at the event since Fuzzy Zoeller won back in 1979. However, don't avoid first-timers completely. Looking to the Top Debutant category on BetMGM, Burns is the chalk at +350. This is still not a slam-dunk play, as there is a 1-in-20 chance of picking the correct golfer here.
Burns is a banger off the tee, averaging 308.1 yards in Driving Distance, while ranking 14th in Greens In Regulation (GIR) percentage at 71.64%, hitting 490 greens in 684 holes. In addition, he is seventh in Birdie Average (4.68), while ranking 13th in Scoring Average (70.079), while also checking in a solid 52nd in SG: Around-the-Green, and 36th in SG: Putting.
There really aren't a lot of holes in Burns' game, and the only thing he has working against him is inexperience, and perhaps being in a bit of awe, at Augusta National in his first time around.
BUBBA WATSON - TOP LEFTY (+175)
Watson, a two-time former winner, is a bargain at this price. First off, there are just four other left-handed golfers he has to finish ahead of: Brian Harman (+240), Robert Macintyre (+250), Garrick Higgo (+500) and Mike Weir (+2500).
Diving deeper into the stats, Watson alone is the slam-dunk play based on his status as two-time champion. But Harman, the supposed closed competitor to Watson from the left side, is a dismal 130th in SG: Approach the Green, 106th in SG: Around-the-Green and 53rd in Scoring Average (70.708).
It's just eight measured rounds, but Macintyre has hit just 57 of 112 possible fairways, or 50.89%, while posting a Scoring Average of 70.337. The sample size isn't great, but that's not a lot of information to make your toes tingle and want to slap down money on him, either.
For the South African Higgo, he ranks 131st in SG: Approach the Green, 146th in SG: Around-the-Green and 173rd in SG: Putting in 20 measured rounds. And the 51-year-old Weir is just not a serious contender.
MACKENZIE HUGHES - TOP CANADIAN (+200)
Corey Conners (-190) is the chalk, and he'll cost you nearly two times your potential return. While he ranks 3rd in GIR at 73.36%, he isn't great in the short game, ranking 105th in SG: Around-the-Green and 104th in SG: Putting. While Conners' numbers sound like he is destined for a short weekend or poor showing, he was 10th in the 2020 Masters, and eighth in the 2021 Masters. He has also made the cut in each of his three all-time appearances at Augusta National.
However, Hughes is a much better value. He has been tearing it up in the short game, ranking 41st in SG: Around-the-Green, and 9th in SG: Putting, while checking in 12th in Scoring Average (70.050). Hughes made the cut last April at The Masters, finishing 40th, and he would have been much better if he didn't have a final-round 76. Look for Hughes to improve upon his 2021 numbers. He is a much better value than Conners, who will cost you two times your initial wager, rather than a chance to double up.
GUIDO MIGLIOZZI - TOP ITALIAN (+160)
This is essentially a matchup play, as Migliozzi simply needs to leapfrog veteran Francesco Molinari (-200). Like Hughes above, Migliozzi is a better value.
Molinari has been struggling across the board, ranking 142nd in Driving Distance (293.6), 194th in GIR (62.84%) and 155th in Scoring Average (71.624), while checking in 171st in SG: Approach the Green, 63rd in SG: Around-the-Green and 101st in SG: Putting. There's no reason to put up two times your potential return, when Migliozzi gives your a chance at plus-money.
Yes, Migliozzi has missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open, his only event in North America since November, and he has missed the cut in four of his five events on the EURO Tour. Don't go crazy on this one, but Molinari has finished 42nd or lower in each of his past five events, including a missed cut last time out in the Valspar Championship.
JUSTIN THOMAS - BOGEY-FREE ROUND (+300)
Thomas is worth a roll of the dice on this prop with a chance to multiply up by three. Thomas ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance, posting 57 Bogeys in 576 Holes Players, just a 9.90% mark in 35 measured rounds through last week's Valero Texas Open.
Daniel Berger (+400) ranks second in the Bogey Avoidance category, and is also worth a small-unit bet based on his numbers. In 21 measured rounds, he has just 33 Bogeys in 324 holes across 21 measured rounds.
BERNHARD LANGER - MISSED CUT (-190)
Langer, the 1993 Masters champion, will cost you nearly two times your potential return. However, he is a great play to miss the cut. The 64-year-old German was 39th in the Rapiscan Systems Classic at Grand Bear Golf Club on the 2022 Champions Tour, and he had a runner-up finish at the Cologuard Classic in Tucson back in late February. But facing same-age players on the Champions Tour, or players 30-40 years younger on the PGA Tour is a totally different animal.
It's a great chance to see Langer and other former champs playing at Augusta National. It would be amazing to see him make the cut. But I just don't see it happening. He doesn't have anywhere near the Driving Distance, and his short game and putting won't compete against the studs of the day in this 50th year since turning pro back in 1972.