It's on to California for the PGA Tour, as we get a tournament that's seen all kinds of winners.
Andrew Landry (+20000) and Adam Long (+60000) cashed some huge paydays the past two years for anyone who was willing to get behind them.
Jon Rahm beat Landry in a playoff back in 2018 with Rahm as one of the favorites at +1000, with a few other recent winners being in that +4000 to +8000 range that can connect a lot on Tour in a given season.
It's a course/event where guys have got to go low and take advantage of the shorter yardage, as bombers are always going to benefit there if they are hitting short irons into the Par 5's.
It hasn't always translated into wins for the big names in this event though, so where you want to weigh your statistical approach can vary.
Par 5 scoring should be near the top regardless, but birdies have got to come from anywhere and everywhere if guys ultimately want to keep pace – every winner here has finished -20 or better since shifting to a 72 hole event.
Andrew Landry will be looking to defend his title this weekend as the Tour returns to PGA West TPC Stadium Course. (AP)
Golf Betting Resources
Any tournament that can turn into a putting contest will put Burns among the favorites on the greens, as he's done nothing but gain strokes on the field with the putter since he started playing mostly on the PGA Tour.
In 34 rounds in 2018, Burns' SG: Putting number was .730 (not ranked), but 2019 saw him finish 29th with a .369 over 68 rounds. Last year's .409 was good for 30th on Tour, and in this field it's closer to being in the Top 20 in that regard.
If Burns avoids the big number and avoids chipping it too often, his putter will keep him lurking around if that really low round hasn't already happened.
If Greens in Regulation numbers are going to help here too, Burns being ranked 5th on Tour (3rd in this field) in GIR % (75.93) doesn't hurt the cause either.
Tringale has been someone who's made sure this event is on his schedule each and every year, with two missed cuts, and five Top 40 finishes at this event in the past 10 years.
Knowledge of the course after all those rounds can only help, and getting these longer shot guys at places you know they like to be at (come every year they can), other numbers can warrant a flyer from time to time.
2020 GIR % numbers are still taking shape this early in the season, but Tringale's not far behind Burns at 73.06%, ranking T24th overall.
A guy that's sticking greens at the moment and playing a course he likes to be at is always a combination I can get behind, especially when he's someone who's had a positive SG: Putting number in every season but one since 2011 (2018 he ws -.104).
Maybe he gets hot enough with the putter to get to that next level of low score here that has kept him out of a Top 10 finish the past 10 seasons, and maybe he doesn't. Worth the addition to the card regardless.
Only makes sense to back Burns as an underdog in his 72 hole matchup with Griffin if he's on the outright card, even if some skepticism remains about his GIR % holding true the rest of this season.
But all the arguments I made for Burns earlier regarding his improved game and him already being a good putter on Tour who's only seen Top 20 success here remain just as valid.
Even if a benchmark of Top 20 is rather high for Burns, still don't agree that he should be a dog to someone who's only missed the cut here in one start over the past 10 years. Simply too hard for me to get off that perspective here.
Going all in with Burns across the board this week as giving him and Cameron Tringale that extra placement cushion here at a solid return has to be done behind those outright and/or Top 5 bets.
This is a tournament where guys can just get too hot for even someone's best golf to overcome, so that cushion isn't bad to have. Tringale and Burns both have had a Top 20 here before in the past, and as long as one of them makes a run at it and lands here, between the two of them we are ahead.
The selection of Patton Kizzire came after Kokrak's success last week, (1st round leader, won his matchup) had me going the route of putting the last guy on the outright chopping block into a prop play.
Kizzire is the guy that's more likely to be the one that goes the scorching hot putter route (25th in SG: Putting) to be among the leaders, with putting as one of his strengths again, but thanks to hitting a few more greens (70.74%) in 30 rounds this season, better results have followed.
Back-to-back missed cuts here the past two years is what put him on the chopping block late, but recent form of three Top 11 finishes in his last four starts with only four of those 16 rounds in the 70's, a 3/1 price tag on him finding the first two pages of the leaderboard is something I can get behind.
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.
If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.