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Jan 14, 2018

At the Gate - Sunday

I don’t think we saw the future Kentucky Derby (G1) winner in action on Saturday, but we saw a couple of solid performances in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points races.

At Aqueduct in the $150,000 Jerome the heavy favorite Firenze Fire got the job done, returning $2.90 for the win. The colt wore down second choice (and my top pick) Seven Trumpets in deep stretch to win by a half-length. The $2 exacta returned a puny $5.80.

The Jason Servis trainee earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 for his victory.

At Fair Grounds my second choice Instilled Regard won by 3 ¾ lengths and returned $6.60 as the second choice in the field of 13. The favorite was Principe Guilherme, who was sent off at 6-5 but had to settle for the runner up spot, the $2 exacta paying $16.00.

The favorite was making his stakes debut after winning his first two starts by a combined 18 lengths.

Instilled Regard is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and earned a 92 Beyer along with the valuable 10 Derby points.

Do not forget we have racing on Monday and I will take a look at the $150,000 Smarty Jones, which is the first of three Derby points races at Oaklawn Park.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $35,000N3L (12:20 ET)
#6 Andesine 5-2
#1 Loose 7-5
#3 Expressly 4-1
#2 Road to Perfection 9-2

Analysis: Andesine stalked the early pace and made a mild late bid to finish in the runner up spot last out. The mare was claimed out of the race by the Schosberg barn that is showing a 0 for 5 mark first off the claim. Dating back five years the barn is 0 for 32. That is not a pretty stat but this mare earned numbers two and three back that fit here and she has landed in the exacta in 6 of her 12 career starts. Looks as if she should get an honest pace to track.

Loose was a game winner versus $25,000 non-winners of two last out in her first start against winners. She returns off a two month break here stepping up a notch. It took her seven tries to break her maiden and she catches a weak group, but her price is going to be very much on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The East View (3:50 ET)
#9 Cause We Are Loyal 10-1
#1 English Soul 3-1
#8 Midnight Disguise 5-2
#2 Cryinthemoonlight 5-1

Analysis: Cause We Are Loyal made a mild late run to finish fourth last out in the state bred Key Cents and stretches back out to a mile. She won the state bred Seeking the Ante back in August at the Spa going 6 1/2, then not a threat when fifth in the state bred Maid of the Mist at a mile. No real excuse for that effort but willing to give her another look here on the stretch out for the Hennig barn.

English Soul loves the slop, breaking her maiden by 14 1/4 lengths and beating state bred Alw-1 optional claimers by seven lengths in a race washed off the turf at a mile. She was sixth in the Chelsey Flower against open foes. She owns the top last out speed fig and has a good string of works since her last outing.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,2,8,9
TRI: 1,9 / 1,2,8,9 / 1,2,6,8,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 8 Md Sp Wt (3:35 ET)
#10 Cypriana 7-2
#7 Paulita 9-2
#8 Cilantro 4-1
#9 Hot Hippie 8-1

Analysis: Cypriana debuts for the Hennig barn and with Brown and Pletcher having firsters in here I am hoping this gal gets overlooked although the ML odds maker did not. She was a $300,000 Keeneland purchase by Bodemeister out of an Indian Charlie mare that has dropped three foals to race, one winner, stakes winner Goin to the Window ($128,993). This filly has worked quickly in the mornings for the Hennig barn that has really improved his numbers with firsters in the past year or so, hitting at a 19% clip (with a +ROI).

Paulita debuts for Brown who is 19% winners with firsters. She is by Scat Daddy out of the stakes winner Blind Date ($370,760) who has dropped two foals to race, both winners. A solid looking string of works at Palm Meadows for her debut.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 7,10 / 7,8,9,10
TRI: 7,10 / 7,8,9,10 / 4,7,8,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #1 Eighth Commandment 12-1
R5: #9 Desert Jazz 12-1
R7: #9 Dublinthepleasure 8-1
R8: #9 Cause We Are Loyal 10-1
R9: #4 Broadway Girl 15-1

Good luck today!

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