BC – Turf SprintWelcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1 and Saturday November 2 at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY at VegasInsider.com. To purchase Anthony Stabile Pick Packs, Click to win!
Distance: 5 furlongs on turf
Purse: $1 million
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 3:33 pm EDT
The HistoryRun down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.
Favorites: 4 for 11 (36%)
Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
U.S based: 11/Foreign based: 0
The champ is here? Yes. Two-time defending champ Stormy Liberal is looking to join Goldikova as the only horses to win three consecutive runnings of an event
A yearly ritual…I never use my traditional format for this race. Too much going on in these turf sprints.
Also, you may want to keep in mind that, depending on which past performances you use, they’ll group five furlong and five and a half furlong races together in the DISTANCE column of the PPs. I’ve included their lifetime record at THIS distance next to each name.
Here is the field, in alphabetical order.
Belvoir Bay (5-3-2-0) makes her first start since finishing fourth against the boys in the G1 Jaipur at Belmont back on Belmont Stakes day. She’s a big fan of the distance as well as the local course having won six of her nine tries locally.
Eddie Haskell (14-9-3-2) capped of a three-race win streak when he walked the dog on the front end at Del Mar this summer before a couple of less than stellar trips, including get shuffled out in the G2 Eddie D, the local prep for this, last out resulted in a couple of runner-up finishes.
Final Frontier (No starts) has turned into a top turf sprinter on the East Coast and won his first stakes in the Belmont Turf Sprint Championship going six furlongs when he sat off the pace to wear down the leader in the final strides.
Imprimis (7-5-0-0) is winless in three starts since a senseless trip to Royal Ascot in June. In his two starts prior to the ship across the pond, he romped in a minor stakes at Gulfstream then fell to his face at the start of the G2 Shakertown at Keeneland but still managed to get up by a neck in the last jumps.
Legends of War (4-1-1-1) took down an entry level allowance/optional claimer at Del Mar two back, his first stateside victory in five tries, from off the pace at this trip then wired the G3 Franklin Simpson at Kentucky Downs going an extra furlong and a half.
Leinster (No starts) capped off a three-wine streak with a score in the G3 Troy at Saratoga over now-retired, world record-holder Disco Partner at Saratoga then finished third in the G3 Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs and second in the G2 Woodford after making the lead in the stretch.
Om (No starts) missed by a nose in this event when it was run down the hill over the course back in 2016 but has won just two of his 15 starts since, including his most recent, some four months ago in a money allowance contest at Churchill.
Pure Sensation (14-9-1-3) won the G3 Turf Monster at Parx for a record fourth time last out. Third in this back in 106 then fifth after setting the pace in 2017, he comes into this the most accomplished and experienced runner at the trip.
Shekky Shebaz (No starts) made the first 13 starts of his career on the all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs for wiring a field of $25K claimers at Saratoga in his turf debut. After being privately purchased out of that event, he wired a restricted stakes at the Spa over Final Frontier before tiring late in the Belmont Turf Sprint Championship to finish second.
Two-time defending champ Stormy Liberal (6-3-1-2) is looking to snap a six-race losing streak as he hasn’t won since his title defense last season. He’s finished third in three starts this year, including the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on the Dubai World Cup undercard and most recently in the Eddie D where he failed to take advantage of a perfect trip.
Stubbins (1-0-0-1) has won half of his eight starts this year, including the Woodford from a long way back most recently. He’s perfect in two starts over the course in the downhill races and will need plenty of help on the front end.
Totally Boss (1-1-0-0) has won four of his five starts this year, including the Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs last out and is Om’s nose shy of being undefeated this season.
The filly Girls Know Best (5-3-1-0) has plenty of speed and beat the boys in an allowance/optional claimer two back at Churchill while Double Touch (1-0-0-0) was fourth in his first start off the claim in the Eddie D last out. Both are on the AE list.
If I’m Right…At this distance, this becomes one of the more unpredictable races of the weekend. I have trouble with turf sprints in general but these five-furlong races are even tougher. I feel like I want to lean on the horses that have early speed.
Live LongshotI’m really curious to see how the public bets Shekky Shebaz. I think he’s as likely a winner as any in here and would love to get 10-1 on him though I’m not sure we will.
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ETon Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile
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