Wednesday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

We kick off the fifth week of the Saratoga meeting with a couple of stakes races as well as a Pick 6 carryover of $187,640 to shoot at. Not a bad way to spend Hump Day.

Don’t forget the Saratoga Pick 6 is not a jackpot bet and there is a $1 increment, generally making it a good play when there is a carryover.

The stakes action kicks off in the third race with the $100,000 Evan Shipman for state breds that drew a compact field of five. Mr. Buff is the 7-5 morning line favorite and looking to bounce back off a subpar effort last out in the state bred Commentator where he faded to finish a well beaten fifth.

Three Jokers (7-2) appears to be the best option. The colt has some early speed and looks capable of stretching his speed out as he tries 1 1/8 miles for the first time in his career.

The ninth race is the $120,000 Mohony which is one of the tougher races in the Pick 6 sequence. It is an evenly matched group of three-year-olds that will go 5 ½ furlongs on the turf.

The Steve Asmussen trained Jaxon Traveler is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The colt was third in the Quik Call (G3) in his last start.

Two foes that have a shot are Momos (7-2), who was beaten just a neck in the My Frenchman and Arrest Me Red (9-2) who is coming off the bench but won the Atlantic Beach last November at Aqueduct and makes his first start since landing in the Wesley Ward barn.

“Saratoga Live” is on FS2 (and streaming on YouTube) from 1:00 to 6:30 ET. Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Wednesday click here .

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 1 ANALYSIS (1:05 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #7 Admiral Halsey 5-2
• #6 Munny Bolt 7-2
• #5 Caste Leoch 3-1
• #3 Red Danger 8-1

Analysis: Admiral Halsey is a $230,000 Keeneland purchase by War Front out of the stakes winner Aloof who has dropped three foals to race, all winners including a pair of turf winners. The Ward barn has hit at a 39% clip with debut juveniles this year. This his first juvie firster at this meet. He was 3 for 6 here last summer. A solid string of works on the morning tab including plenty of turf works. He should be ready to go at first asking.

Munny Bolt debuts for the Asmussen barn that is winning at a 21% clip this year with two-year-old first timers. Here at this meeting the trainer is 4 for 8 (with a +ROI). Quick works including a pair of solid gate drills should have this guy ready to give a good account of himself in his debut here.

SARATOGA 7 ANALYSIS (4:29 P.M. ET)

Race 7 OClm $80,000N1X

• #9 Community Adjusted 10-1
• #11 Town Avenger 7-2
• #8 Island Treasure 15-1
• #2 Magisterium 6-1

Analysis: Community Adjusted stalked the early pace, came with a wide run and made a mild late rally to finish fourth last out over good ground going 1 1/4 miles in her first start against winners. The runner up High Opinion came back to beat Alw-1 foes here in her next outing on July 31. Our top pick graduated two back at Belmont Park going 1 1/4 miles in her fourth career start. The $100,000 Keeneland purchase is out of a Dynaformer mare that has dropped four other turf winners. She has shown improvement in each of her last three starts and another move forward puts her in the mix here at a decent enough price.

Town Avenger broke her maiden in her debut going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf at Churchill Downs. She came back in the Tepin at a mile last out where she was off near the back of the pack behind a slow pace and made up some ground late to finish fourth. The third-place finisher New Boss came back to win the Pea Patch at Ellis Park in her next outing on July 18. This $380,000 Keeneland purchase has been working sharply in the mornings and looks as if she still has some upside making just her third career start and dropping in to face Alw-1 company here.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

• R1: #3 Red Danger 8-1
• R4: #3 Strong Odor 10-1
• R5: #2 Anejo 12-1
• R7: #9 Community Adjusted 10-1
• R7: #8 Island Treasure 15-1
• R10: #3 Straight Skinny 15-1
• R10: #8 Ghostman 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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