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Nov 02, 2021

2021 BC Dirt Mile Predictions, Odds, Preview

2021 Breeders' Cup Betting Central

Welcome to Stabile’s 2021 Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 5 and Saturday November 5 at Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.

Dirt Mile
Post Position & Morning Line Odds

  1. Silver State 7-2
  2. Pingxiang 12-1
  3. Ginobili 4-1
  4. Jasper Prince 30-1
  5. Life Is Good 4-5
  6. Restrainedvengence 20-1
  7. Snapper Sinclair 12-1
  8. Eight Rings 10-1

Field Subject to Change

Dirt Mile Betting Resources

  • Race: 6
  • Distance: 1 mile
  • Purse: $1 million
  • Age: 3up
  • Date: Saturday, November 6
  • Time: 4:19 p.m. ET

The History

Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at intended distance on dirt for first time in 2010. Goldencents became the first back-to-back winner of the event with a pair of gate-to-wire scorchers in 2013 & 2014 while Liam’s Map powered away to win after a tough trip in 2015.

Fast Facts

  • Favorites: 3 for 14 (21%)
  • Shortest: $3.00 (Liam’s Map, 2015)
  • Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)
  • The champ is here? No. Knicks Go is running in the Classic.

How to Handicap the Dirt Mile

Best

5-Life Is Good figures to be one of the shortest prices of Breeders’ Cup weekend and looks to close out a crazy 2021 in the right way with a victory here.

Life Is Good was all the rage coming into this year on the Kentucky Derby Trail and opened eyes with his eight-length romp in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. As awe-inspiring a performance as it was, he drifted through the lane, leading many to question his antics. It was eventually announced by his former trainer Bob Baffert that he’d be forced to the sidelines with an injury and would miss the Triple Crown races.

Life Is Good was transferred to fellow Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher after the Kentucky Derby scandal and began preparing for a late summer campaign an Keeneland. He met up with top sprinting sophomore Jackie’s Warrior in his first objective, the G1 Allen Jerkens at Saratoga.

The match-up lived up to the hype and Life Is Good and Jackie’s Warrior battled through wicked early fractions before Life Is Good managed some separation on the turn. But Jackie’s Warrior rallied along the inside while Life Is Good stayed in the middle of the course to get up to win by a neck.

In his final prep for this is the G2 Kelso at Belmont Park going a mile, Life Is Good went straight to the front and galloped around Big Sandy to win by over five lengths.

Rest

G1 Met Mile winner 1-Silver State has been a model of consistency this season but comes into this having lost back-to-back starts for the first time in well over a year. He was no match for Knicks Go in the G1 Whitney two back then appeared to idle a bit after making the lead in the Parx Dirt Mile most recently. His Met Mile score at Belmont culminated a six-race winning streak that dated back to October 2020.

The versatile, seemingly ageless 7-Snapper Sinclair will be making start 35 in this, a race he finished fourth in two years ago. He has won on fast dirt, an off track, firm turf and off turf. This year he took a money allowance/optional claimer going a two-turn mile at Oaklawn before a fourth-place finish in the G2 Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Night. More recently he won a minor stakes at Kentucky Downs and was second in the G2 Eddie D at Santa Anita, both on the lawn.

3-Ginobili is perfect in two starts since the addition of blinkers. A front running tally going this trip followed by a victory from just off the pace in the G2 Pat O’Brien going seven furlongs, both over this course.

8-Eight Rings returned to the winners’ circle for the first time in just over two years when he went gate-to-wire in a second level allowance/optional claimer at Santa Anita most recently. He was the second choice in the 2019 B.C. Juvenile when sixth, the first of six consecutive losses.

6-Restrainedvengence won a head bob to take a minor stakes at Albuquerque Downs in his most recent effort.

2-Pingxiang and 4-Jasper Prince ship over from Japan for this. The former comes in off a pair of victories going seven panels while the latter set the pace in last year’s B.C. Sprint before tiring to last at 72-1. Neither have raced beyond never raced beyond seven furlongs on dirt and Jasper Prince’s races at this distance on turf left lots to be desired.

Dirt Mile Predictions

If I’m Right…

The chalk parade on dirt will continue. I’m as a big a Silver Sate fan as there is but Life Is Good is simply too fast for these.

Live Longshot

Snapper Sinclair has won three of his dirt starts and they all came at this distance. He should be in the 15-1 range coming into this off of his turf form.

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Anthony “the Big A” Stabile's expert horse racing content is featured in many different mediums nationally and you can check out all of his appearances by following him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile.

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