2021 Louisiana Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds
Betting Resources and Picks
- Date: Saturday, Mar. 20, 2021
- Post-Time: 6:44 p.m. ET
- TV Coverage: FS1, NBC, NBCSN, TVG
- Race: 14
- Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 3/16 Miles
- Qualification: Three-year-olds
- Track: Fair Grounds
- Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Picks, Analysis and Odds
1 – Starrininmydreams (20/1)
One of six in here who tried the Risen Star last out. He won his two starts prior but threw in a real clunker from his rail draw that day at 10-1. Gets one of the leading riders in the game in Luis Saez and trainer Dallas Stewart can pop at a price on the big stage. With that said, I’m not a fan of his.
2 – Rightandjust (20/1)
This former claimer set the pace before tiring in the Risen Star and his better races have come against easier competition. He also figures to face some pace pressure in here.
3 – Run Classic (12/1)
This horse is getting some buzz as he ran well to break his maiden on the Risen Star undercard in a time fairly comparable to the stakes and faster than some others on the card. Son of Runhappy is going to have to get a distance many feel is out of his scope but if you’re looking for a price alternative he’s the only one I would recommend.
4 – Proxy (7/2)
Gets a pair of blinkers off a pair of second place finishes in the Lecomte to Midnight Bourbon and Risen Star to Mandaloun. He’s a model of consistency, with two wins and three seconds from five starts. My big issue with him is his wins came with Lasix and when he was able to control pedestrian paces. He gets neither in here.
5 – Hot Rod Charlie (3/1)
He ran HUGE in the B.C. Juvenile, missing to Essential Quality by less than a length at 94-1. He returned in last January in the Sham and finished a respectable third in a three-horse photo after an awful start. He’s now had issues at the start in three of his six starts. It likely cost him the win last out. I’m not a fab of what he faced in California but Rosario travels with him and maybe a fresh face is just what the trail through the bayou needs.
6 – Mandaloun (8/5)
You can like who you want in here but I would proverbially die on the hill that he’s the horse to beat. He looked like a horse who needed blinkers to tie it all together two back, got them last out, and finished his rivals off. He’s the one who runs like and has the breeding to appreciate the added distance. I think he’s going to be too tough to beat.
7 – Midnight Bourbon (5/1)
He parlayed a perfect trip and ride to walk the dog on the front end of the Lecomte before tiring to third in the Risen Star when he didn’t get to the top. Of the three who’ve traded blows down there this winter I think he’s the one most up against it.
8 – O Besos (15/1)
Another who has won both starts with Lasix and lost both without it. Was wide last out when fourth in Risen Star but I think he’ll be better suited going shorter.
Predictions - If I had $100
$70 win 6
$5 Trifecta Key 6 over 3,4,5
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