MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, June 6th
These are the four best home run props for today, June 6, 2025:
- Lawrence Butler
- Christian Yelich
- Pete Alonso
- Taylor Ward
Earlier this week, we unfortunately suffered a reverse sweep, but we were able to go two for four on our picks last week – let's see if we can replicate those results. Keep reading for more details about Friday's MLB home run prop bets.
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Home Runs Odds
Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+400 | BetMGM) vs. Baltimore Orioles (SP: Dean Kremer)
Updated on 6/18/25
Generally speaking, this is a great game to target for Friday night. Not only do the A's have arguably the best ballpark in terms of homer production, but the wind should be blowing out a bit to left field, so the conditions are optimal for some dingers.
For the matchup, Dean Kremer of Baltimore has been a solid target for home runs. Kremer has struggled in the long ball department, allowing 83 home runs in 106 career starts. In 2025, it has been more of the same, with 10 home runs given up in 12 starts.
On the other side, Lawrence Butler gets an advantageous split, facing a hittable righty. Butler has posted a .511 SLG with a 149 wRC+ with eight home runs (out of nine total) coming against right-handers.
Although Kremer has a propensity to give up the long ball, he's still a solid innings eater who has lasted at least 5 ⅓ in his last nine starts. From the leadoff spot, Butler should be able to draw this plus matchup at least three times.
Christian Yelich to Hit a Home Run (+475 | bet365) vs. San Diego Padres (SP: Randy Vasquez)
Updated on 6/18/25
In terms of matchups, Randy Vasquez is another great target for this Friday's slate. Vasquez has allowed seven home runs in his last five starts, five of which came against the lowly Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies hitters.
Although Christian Yelich hasn't been as solid a hitter as he usually is from a contact perspective (batting .237), he's been much more effective as a power hitter, already posting 13 home runs -- 12 of which have come against righties.
As he ages, Yelich has clearly made a point to get more lift on the baseball, and it's paying off.
It also doesn't hurt that Yelich is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Dating back to June 5 (one month ago), Yelich has hit eight home runs.
Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+310 | FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies (SP: Antonio Senzatela)
It's always fun to target home runs at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
On the surface, Pete Alonso has had a strong start to the 2025 season, but underneath that surface, Alonso could regress towards even more production:
Alonso has actually been more productive against righties, posting a .307 AVG with 12 home runs and a ridiculous 177 wRC+ in 2025.
Anybody who follows baseball knows this Rockies' team is on pace to be one of the worst (if not the worst) teams in all of baseball history. They're coming off their first series win of the year, sweeping the Marlins. However, this is still the worst staff in baseball, and tonight, they'll be trotting out arguably their worst pitcher, Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela has a diverse pitch mix, but everything starts with his fastball, which he throws over 50% of the time. Alonso has crushed fastballs this season with an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph.
Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+350 | bet365) vs. Seattle Mariners (SP: Bryce Miller)
For our final pick, we'll target Taylor Ward against the Seattle Mariners.
Ward has been a revelation of sorts in 2025, as he's one of baseball's breakouts. Ward tallied a career-high 25 home runs in 2024 and already has 17 in 2025, good for 6th in all of baseball.
And now, the Angels lineup gets a massive boost with superstar Mike Trout back in the lineup after a long hiatus. Similar to Alonso, despite being a righty, Ward has seen better results against same-side pitchers, posting 15 of his 17 home runs against that split.
As Ward has been one of baseball's biggest surprises, Mariners starter Bryce Miller has been one of baseball's biggest disappointments. After breaking out in 2024 with a 2.94 ERA, Miller has regressed in a big way. Miller has posted a 5.36 ERA, and it doesn't look like things are getting any better; Miller has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Miller is in the 22nd percentile or worse in xERA, average exit velocity, and expected batting average.
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