Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Atlanta Braves Tuesday for game one of the NLDS. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia and can be viewed on FOX.  

Updated on 04/26/2024

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PREDICTION

Philadelphia escaped the Wild Card round by upsetting the St. Louis Cardinals this past weekend. The Phillies looked solid on both sides of the ball, the offense scoring eight combined runs over the two games and the bullpen allowing the Cardinals to score just three runs. Although Philadelphia will be the underdog again in this series, this is not a team that should be taken lightly. With guys like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins this team is as powerful as any in the league. Their bullpen is solid as well with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola serving as a one two punch, but the relievers and closers have struggled at times. Southpaw pitcher Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday.  

The Braves will have a few days extra rest in this matchup after clinching their fifth National League East title. While most expected the Braves to be good this season, I’m not sure many thought they would be as good as they are after losing a few key players following their World Series win. However, the roster is still impressive as they managed to win 100 games and not have a losing month since May of this year. Their offense has been extremely productive this season and should be able to give the Phillies bullpen some problems as the game progresses. Their bullpen has been solid as well and the addition of closer Kenley Jensen from the Dodgers could turn out to be a game changer in the playoffs. Braves ace Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) is expected to start Tuesday.  

I like the Braves to take game-one of this series as the home favorites. Philadelphia has struggled on the road against Atlanta recently and the Braves have seen success against Suarez as well. I also like the total to go over in this one. I think the Phillies will score a couple of runs in the first few innings and the Braves will score the rest as the game continues. Backing the Braves moneyline and the over in this matchup.  

Score Prediction: Braves 4, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-110)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING ODDS

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Tuesday, October 11, 2022
• Matchup: NL East
• Venue: Truist Park
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• Time-TV: 1:07 p.m. ET – FOX
• Expert Picks

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Phillies enter this matchup 89-75 SU and 83-81 ATS. Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 5-1 SU in their last six games against an NL opponent. They are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against Atlanta and 1-4 SU in their last five games when playing on the road against Atlanta. The total has gone over in six of their last seven when playing an NL East opponent.  

Philadelphia’s offense did not hit the ball all that well in their series with the Cardinals but were able to capitalize when they needed to. The offense has been productive throughout the season with a batting average of .253 (8th), on base percentage of .317 (11th), slugging percentage of .422 (6th) and have scored 747 total runs (7th). Designated hitter Harper was a key part of the offense this season and went 2-7 with one home run and one RBI in the Wild Card round. 

The Phillies bullpen pitched very well against the Cardinals but will need to use a bit more caution against this tough Braves lineup. On the season Philadelphia allowed opponents a batting average of .245 (16th), have a WHIP of 1.26 (14th), and team ERA of 3.97 (18th). The left-hander Suarez is expected to take the mound in game-one. Suarez is 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA this season and has given up 149 hits, 63 earned runs, and struck out 129 batters in 155.1 innings of work. In his four outings against the Braves this season, Suarez gave up a combined 17 hits and five earned runs in 23.2 innings.  

ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING ANALYSIS

Atlanta is 101-61 SU and 83-79 ATS headed into game-one of the NLDS. The Braves are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games and 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games. They are also 4-1 SU in their last five games when playing at home against Philadelphia. The total has gone under in five of their last six when paying at home on a Tuesday.  

The Braves' offense has not missed a beat since letting go Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers. Freeman’s replacement, Matt Olson, has come up huge for the Braves with 30 home runs and 100+ RBIs. As a team the offense has a batting average of .253 (9th), on base percentage of .317 (9th), slugging percentage of .443 (1st) and have scored 789 total runs (3rd). The third baseman Austin Riley has been a crucial part of this offense with a batting average of .273 (168-615), 38 home runs, and 93 RBIs. 

Atlanta’s bullpen has been one of the best in the business throughout this season. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .226 (4th), have a WHIP of 1.19 (7th), and team ERA of 3.46 (5th). Left-handed pitcher Fried is scheduled to take the mound Tuesday. Fried is 14-7 with an ERA of 2.48 this season and has given up 156 hits, 51 earned runs, and struck out 170 batters in 185.1 innings. In his most recent outing against the Phillies, Fried went 5.0 innings while giving up five hits and one run.  

KEY PLAYERS

• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 2-4, HR, RBI, R)
• PHI: J.T. Realmuto - C (Last Game: 0-2, 2 BB)
• ATL: Austin Riley - 3B (-)
• ATL: Ronald Acuna, Jr. - OF (-)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• PHI: Ranger Suarez - LHP (-)
• ATL: Max Fried - LHP (-)