Game 4 Predictions & Odds: Celtics vs. Heat

• September 23, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

After blowing 10-point leads in each of the first two Eastern Conference Final contests, the Boston Celtics finally secured their first victory of the series with a 117-106 win on Saturday night.

The hill to climb remains steep for Brad Steven’s squad though as they still trail the Heat 2-1 heading into Wednesday’s Game 4 tilt in the bubble.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 4
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Gordon Hayward returned for the Celtics in Game 3 and lifted Boston past Miami. (AP)

Betting Odds - Celtics vs. Heat

Line Movements

The Celtics finally rewarded ‘favorite bettors’ by winning and covering in Game 3 on Saturday night, and Vegas has decided to lean on them again for Game 4 – listing Boston as a two and a half-point favorite to even up this series with Miami.

The winning team in this series has eclipsed 115 points in two out of the three contests so far, easily sending the total ‘over’ in those two matchups, respectively.

The total for this game still sits at OU 210.5 though, as the oddsmakers refuse to give these tough defensive units any leeway on the ‘over-under.’

• Spread: Boston -3
• Money-Line: Boston -160, Miami +140
• Total: 210.5
• Updated Series Price: Miami -125, Boston +105

Game 3 Recap

Opportunity knocked for Jayson Tatum on Saturday night when the spotlight fell on him to lead his team to it first victory in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals, and he did not “disappoint´ – leading his team in shot attempts and contributing 25 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assists on 45% shooting to the Celtic victory.

What really got my attention though, was how the rest of the Boston starters answered the bell in this game, especially Jaylen Brown.

Believe it or not, Tatum was the only Celtic starter to record a field goal percentage under 50% in this contest – led by Brown who scored 26 points on 65% shooting.

The Heat may have failed to knock off the Celtics on Saturday night, but it was not because Bam Adebayo short-changed his team by any means.

Bam will look to continue his playoff tear against the Celtics on Wednesday night after going for 27 points on 71% shooting in the Heat’s Game 3 loss.

Game 3 Betting Results

The Boston offense finally put forth a consistent effort in Game 3 and bettors were able to cash the club in the first quarter, first-half, second-half and for the game.

The 'over' got off to a decent start and also remained steady in the final two quarters, which helped the high side connect across the board too.

Outcome: Celtics 117 Heat 106

• Game: Celtics Win, Celtics Cover (-3.5), Over 208.5
• First Quarter: Celtics Win (31-22), Celtics Cover (-2), Over 52.5
• First-Half: Celtics Win (63-50), Celtics Cover (-3), Over 104.5
• Second-Half: Heat Win (56-54), Celtics Cover (+3.5), Over 104

Celtics vs. Heat
How to Handicap Game 4

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 14-8 SU, 12-9-1 ATS, 7-13-1 O/U
• Playoffs: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 3-10 O/U

Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker really stepped up in a big way for the Celtics on Saturday night as the guard tandem combined for 41 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists to help guide their team to its first victory of this series.

The glorious part about this game for Boston is that Tatum has a relatively pedestrian outing during the Celtics’ must-win bout, but the Celtics still dominated for the entirety of the contest – never trailing Miami at the end of a single stanza in this one.

Tatum has the star-power to completely take over a game and win it for his team if he needs to, but it was good to see he does not necessarily need to do it in order to earn victories in this series.

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS, 9-10-1 O/U
• Playoffs: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS, 5-7 O/U

Miami is still in the driver’s seat in this series, but to say Vegas is not worried about Jimmy Butler and company might be a stretch, as the Heat have fallen to just a -135 favorite to represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals after earning a 2-0 lead on the third-seeded Celtics.

A team that had been winning games with soul-sucking defense and clutch shooting appeared to be totally unenthused about keeping up with the hot-shooting Boston lineup in Game 3.

Miami utilized a 2-3 zone for extended stretches during the first two games of this series – just begging Boston to beat them from deep. Eric Spoelstra may want to try going back to that more frequently on defense if his guys are going to continuously allow Boston to shoot at a 49% clip as a unit from 2-point territory.

Key Injuries

Boston

• SG Romeo Langford: Hip - Out

Miami

• PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

After exiting Boston’s very first playoff game in the bubble against Philadelphia with an ankle injury, Gordon Hayward returned to the court for Game 3 of this series and logged 30 minutes off the bench in his first contest back since August 17th.

The extra rest between games three and four should serve as crucial recovery time as he tries to return to full-strength for the tail-end of this series.

Game 4 Best Picks

Boston blew double-digit leads in its first two contests of this series, but the Brown-Tatum combo finally put together a full-four quarters of basketball on Saturday night with the duo combining for 51 of the Celtics’ 117 points.

Give me Boston -2.5 here, as I think the Celtics come out with an unmatched amount of energy coming off four days rest and even this series up with a phenomenal defensive display on Wednesday night.

Score Prediction: Celtics 107 Heat 101