Game 3 Predictions & Odds: Lakers vs. Heat

• October 3, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

Following an impressive 124-114 victory in Game 2 on Friday evening to earn his first 2-0 lead in 10 NBA Finals appearances, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will look to gain a three-game advantage against the Miami Heat in the bubble on Sunday night.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: NBA Finals Game 3
• Series: Lakers lead 2-0
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)

Game 3 Betting Odds - Lakers vs. Heat

Line Movements

The Lakers have now won the first two games of this series by double digits, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are projecting Frank Vogel’s team to come up just short of that mark on Sunday evening – setting the spread for Game 3 at Los Angeles -8.5.

‘Over’ tickets cashed in a big way in Game 2, as Los Angeles and Miami combined for 238 points on Sunday night. The oddsmakers have elected to stick to their guns with the ‘over-under’ though – leaving the line at OU 218.5.

• Spread: Los Angeles -8.5
• Money-Line: Los Angeles -380 Miami +320
• Total: 218.5
• Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -6000, Miami +1600

Odds Subject to Change

Game 2 Recap

The odds were stacked against Erik Spoelstra’s team from the jump on Sunday night, as Miami’s Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo were both sidelined due to injuries suffered during Game 1.

Even with Bam out of the lineup, the Heat appeared content sitting back in a 2-3 zone and allowing Los Angeles to fire as many longballs off as they pleased in this contest, and the Lakers took what they were given – LAL putting up 47 3-point attempts, compared to Miami’s 27.

Adebayo was also clearly missed in the rebounding department in Miami’s last contest, as the Lakers finished +10 on the offensive boards.

King James and Anthony Davis were both spectacular for a second straight NBA Finals victory for Los Angeles, combining for 65 of their team’s 124 points.

The Lakers appear to be firing on all cylinders right now after winning and covering in back-to-back Finals matchups. They will look to keep it going on Sunday night.

Game 2 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 124 Heat 114

The Lakers jumped out to a big lead at halftime but the Heat hung around with a big third quarter and managed to cover as double-digit underdogs.

The offensive units only combined for 52 points in the first quarter but the pair got the 'over' on track for an easy win with 70 and 74 points in the second and third quarter respectively.

• Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (-10.5), Over 216.5
• First Quarter: Lakers Win (29-23), Lakers Cover (-2), Under 54.5
• First-Half: Lakers Win (68-54), Lakers Cover (-6), Over 112
• Second-Half: Heat Win (60-56), Heat Cover (+1.5), Over 109

Lakers vs. Heat
How to Handicap Game 3

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 17-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS, 12-13 O/U
• Playoffs: 14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 8-9 O/U

Los Angeles’ willingness to shoot the longball against Miami’s zone defense has been incredible as they continue to shatter Lakers post-season franchise records for 3-point shot attempts by jacking up 38 more shots from long-range on Friday night.

King James was just short of a triple-double yet again in Game 2, tallying 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in the Laker victory – landing himself as the current Finals MVP favorite at -200 odds. AD is right there behind him though (+140), after sporting his second straight 30-point outing on Friday to begin his NBA Finals career.

Los Angeles will look to make it a perfect 3-0 in these NBA Finals on Sunday evening.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 15-10 SU, 16-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
• Playoffs: 12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS, 9-8 O/U

The Heat entered this series as hefty underdogs (+300), and things are only getting worse for them as they continue to lose games while nursing their injury woes – currently sitting at +1600 to rally back from a two-game deficit.

The biggest thing for Miami right now is health if they want to compete in this series. Even with Dragic and Adebayo in the lineup, the odds of the Heat knocking off LeBron and company in these finals were slim to none.

Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro also need to get it going from downtown in this series if the Heat want to swing the momentum back in their direction in Game 3 – the duo is shooting a combined 5 for 21 from three-point land in the series.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

• None

Miami

• PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
• PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic’s status for Game 3 remains foggy, but Adebayo says that he feels good and expects to be in the lineup for the Heat on Sunday night. If Miami wants to make these NBA Finals look like a closely contested series in the slightest, it is critical that Bam is healthy and in the lineup for the Heat. Keep an eye on his status as tipoff approaches.

Game 3 Player Prop Picks

• Over Anthony Davis Total Points 30.5
• Under Anthony Davis Total Rebounds 9.5

Davis has averaged 33 points so far in these finals and has scored 30+ in five of his last seven post-season contests. That is why I am backing him to score ‘over’ 30.5 points again at -116 odds on Sunday night.

AD also had a big day on the boards in Game 2, corralling 14 rebounds (8 offensive) during Adebayo’s absence. If Bam returns on Sunday night, I think he helps keep AD ‘under’ 9.5 rebounds like he did during Game 1 at an enticing line of +116.

Game 3 Best Bet Picks

Adebayo’s status undoubtedly throws a wrench into the ‘over-under’ as the Miami big man greatly influences the Heat’s pace of play and offensive strategy.

The Lakers have covered in the first two contests if this series, and regardless of what NBA Finals trends say, I am having a real tough time finding a justifiable reason to not side with LeBron’s crew in Game 3. I don’t think I am going to find one.

Give me Los Angeles -8.5 on Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Lakers 113, Heat 101