Game 5 Predictions & Odds: Heat vs. Lakers

• October 8, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

The Los Angeles Lakers reigned victorious in a closely contested Game 4 NBA Finals bout in the Orlando bubble on Tuesday night, and now LeBron James finds himself just one victory over the Miami Heat away from becoming just the third player in NBA history to secure a championship ring with three different teams.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: NBA Finals Game 5
• Series: Lakers lead 3-1
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Date: Friday, Oct. 9, 2020
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers will look to eliminate the Miami Heat when the pair meet in Game 5 on Friday. (AP)

Game 5 Betting Odds - Lakers vs. Heat

Line Movements

Tyler Herro broke the heart and bank of every Laker bettor with his last-second, garbage-time, 3-point bomb to secure a Miami +7.5 cover at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday night. Understandably, the oddsmakers have elected to leave the line for Friday night’s game at the same number – Los Angeles -7.

The ‘over-under’ in this series has split now 2-2 in the first four games of these NBA Finals, after combining for just 198 points in their most recent matchup. The total for Friday night’s game still sits in the same ballpark of their recent matchups – OU 216.

• Spread: Los Angeles -7
• Money-Line: Los Angeles -310 Miami +260
• Total: 216
• Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Miami +2000

Odds Subject to Change

Game 4 Recap

The Heat got back a key player from injury in Bam Adebayo (15 points, 7 rebounds) for Game 4, and despite losing the game, Miami finally looked like the team that locked down the Eastern Conference defensively by holding the Lakers to their lowest point total in this series so far (102).

Tuesday night was all about LeBron James yet again though, as the King led Los Angeles in scoring with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists on 50% shooting in the victory.

The Lakers got virtually no help from the bench in Game 4, as guys not in the starting lineup for Frank Vogel’s team shot a combined 5 for 15 in the contest. But it did not make a difference as Anthony Davis went for 22 points on 50% shooting, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green combined for another 25 points.

Los Angeles tried to keep Miami in the game by turning the ball over 15 times and letting the Heat outshoot them 18-21 at the foul line. But Erik Spoelstra’s team just did not bring the firepower to knock off the Lakers in this one like they did in Game 3.

Lakers bettors felt confident down the stretch of Tuesday night’s contest, as LeBron and company boasted a nine-point lead with the clock winding down in Game 4. But of course, the 20-year old rookie from the University of Kentucky had to be the hero for Miami bettors, securing the backdoor cover on the final shot of the contest.

Covering the spread will not be enough for the Heat on Sunday night though, as one more Lakers victory will give them their first title since 2010.

Game 4 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 106 Heat 96

While Herro gave Heat backers a nice win on side wagers, the 'under' was never in doubt and it cashed across the board. The 'under' is now 3-1 in the first four games of the finals

• Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 218.5
• First Quarter: Lakers Win (27-22), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 56.5
• First-Half: Lakers Win (49-47), Heat Cover (+5), Under 112.5
• Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-49), Heat Cover (+4), Under 107

Lakers vs. Heat
How to Handicap Game 5

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 16-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
• Playoffs: 13-6 SU, 15-4 ATS, 9-10 O/U

Even though they lost the game, Tuesday night’s contest should have been the most encouraging contest of this series so far for Heat fans, as the Miami defense really seemed to gel with Bam back in the lineup.

The results were not necessarily encouraging for the immediate future, as Miami is currently staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. But Tuesday night showed that this young, Heat core has the foundation to defend and compete with dynamic, star-filled rosters like the Lakers, when healthy.

The Heat have had their greatest success against Los Angeles when they play through Butler and let him take 20+ shots per game, which is a tough strategy against a team wielding defensive firepower like the Lakers. Miami is clearly still one piece away. But it has still been one heck of a ride in the bubble for this dark-horse Miami squad.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 18-9 SU, 11-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U
• Playoffs: 15-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 8-11 O/U

It feels obnoxious saying that AD has been a letdown in his last two NBA Finals contests for Los Angeles, averaging over 18 points per game, but that really is an underwhelming feat for the Lakers’ superstar big man.

Davis is shooting the ball fine over this stretch (50%+ in last 2 games), it just seems like the Lakers are strategizing away from the big man in this series, as AD draws Adebayo on a large percentage of his square-up opportunities.

King James currently sits as a -450 favorite to win Finals MVP after back-to-back slow performances from Davis. Looking forward to another emotional MVP speech from ‘the chosen one’ following the conclusion of this series.

Fun Fact

The last time the Lakers won a title, they knocked off Rajon Rondo and the “Big 3” Boston Celtics in 7 games back in the 2010 NBA Finals.

Ten years later, the four-time All-Star still comes off the bench for the Lakers, searching for his second title and contributing quality minutes at the guard position for a team that desperately needs it. If Los Angeles is able beat Miami one more time in this series, his second championship ring is undoubtedly well earned.)

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

• None

Miami

• PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic suffered a fascia tear in his foot during Game 1 of these NBA Finals, and has not been able to get back on the floor since. Prior to Game 4, Dragic tried to warm-up with his team and go through a pre-game routine, but it was evident he was still dealing with some serious discomfort in his left foot.

The veteran point-guard is listed as 'doubtful' for Friday night’s tilt. I do not expect him to suit up for the remainder of this series – but you never know. Goran is a tough guy.

Kendrick Nunn is slated to fill Miami’s gap in the rotation for Game 5. Surprisingly, this move did not leave too big of a scar on the Heat’s offensive production during the first few meetings of Dragic’s absence, but they are now beginning to feel the loss of their point-guard as 2020 Rookie of the Year Runner-up scored just six points on 2 of 11 field goal attempts on Tuesday night.

Game 5 Player Prop Picks

• Bam Adebayo Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds
• Highest Scorer - LeBron James

Unless Butler goes for 40 again, the highest scorer on the court will likely be AD or LeBron in Game 5. Adebayo is back and should be getting healthier by the day, who will spend most of his night guarding Davis. Which is why I like King James to be the highest scorer on the floor Friday night at +125 odds.

When AD is in the paint blocking almost three shots per game against your team and wrestling for rebounds, it is natural to desire the utilization of perimeter offense against much weaker defenders such as KCP, Caruso, Kuzma etc., which is why I like Bam’s ‘under’ tonight.

Adebayo undeniably has a bright future ahead of him in this league. He just happens to have one of the NBA’s All-Time great two-way players shadowing him in this series, and it takes a ton of energy to keep him from having an offensive explosion. I think Bam stays under his total again on Friday. Give me Adebayo – ‘under’ 24.5 points + rebounds at -122 odds.

Game 5 Best Bet Picks

The ‘under’ has cashed in two of these NBA Finals contests so far, and that just so happened to take place in both matchups Adebayo was able to participate in. When Bam is in the lineup for Miami, the Heat tend to play at a naturally slower pace, while also being a much better defensive unit down low.

I think we see another closely contested, defensive ballgame on Friday night. Give me ‘under 216’ in what could potentially be the final game of the 2019-2020 NBA season.

Score Prediction: Lakers 109, Heat 102