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Last Updated Oct 29, 2021, 06:00 AM

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 29, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Regular-season NBA action will conclude on Friday night with a heavyweight Western Conference bout between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Mavericks 113, Nuggets 109

Best Bets

Dallas +1.5

Luka Doncic (DAL/G) Over 29.5 Points

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions

After finishing fifth in the West with a record of 42-30 last year, Dallas kicked off the new season in incredibly frustrating fashion, as the Mavericks scored just 87 points on 33% FG and 30% 3FG during Luka Doncic and company’s somewhat stunning blowout loss to Atlanta on opening night (L, 113-87).

Since opening night though, Dallas has significantly ramped things up at the offensive end – highlighted by the Mavericks averaging 109.5 PPG on roughly 42% FG and 37% 3FG across their pair of commanding victories over the Raptors and Rockets (+16).

On the other hand, the Nuggets barreled out to a surprisingly excellent start, as Denver posted a pair of commanding victories over the Suns and Spurs in their first two matchups of the new season (+18). The Nuggets haven’t looked good since their opening pair of victories though, considering Denver heads into Friday’s contest following back-to-back double-digit losses against the Cavaliers and Jazz (-24).

I’ll take the points with the Mavericks here, as despite Denver’s impressive pair of victories over San Antonio and Phoenix to kick off the season – the Nuggets are still far too difficult to trust in matchups against playoff teams without Jamal Murray on the floor.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Odds Provided by FanDuel - Subject to Change

  • Mavericks +102
  • Nuggets -120
  • Mavericks +1.5 (-110)
  • Nuggets -1.5 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Southwest vs. Northwest
  • Date: Friday, October 29, 2021
  • Venue: Ball Arena
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 10:00 p.m. ET



Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-1
  • ATS: 1-3
  • O/U: 0-4

After a heartbreaking conclusion to a thrilling seven-game playoff bout with the Clippers, the Mavericks were gifted with an immediate opportunity to remind the basketball world of the leaps and bounds they made throughout last year – as Luka Doncic and company ventured to Atlanta to face the Hawks in primetime for their season-opener.

Dallas completely missed the boat on that opportunity though, considering the Mavericks scored just 87 points on 33% FG during their blowout loss to Atlanta last Thursday – highlighted by Luka scoring just 18 PTS on 6-of-17 shooting throughout the contest.

Doncic immediately bounced back in his team’s following events though, considering the two-time All- Pro is averaging 26.5 PPG on 43% FG across the Mavericks’ next two affairs.

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-2
  • ATS: 1-3
  • O/U: 1-3

After losing Murray to a knee injury last year, expectations regarding Denver quickly plummeted, as the Nuggets (-120) ventured into their first-round playoff series as narrow favorites over the lower-seeded Blazers (+100).

Once Murray returns, the Nuggets appear fully capable of ranking alongside the top contenders in the West, and they’ll eventually receive that level of respect from the oddsmakers once they reach full strength.

Until they get healthy though, try to avoid Denver in short favorite spots, considering the only reliable component to the Nuggets’ offense is the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic – and when squaring off against upper-tier opponents like Dallas, Denver needs heightened production from everybody.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head

Dallas won two-of-three regular-season matchups against the Nuggets last year, with both the Mavericks’ victories during that timeframe surprisingly coming on the road in Denver.

The Nuggets’ lone victory over Dallas last season also came on the road – but Denver played that matchup with Murray in the lineup, who is still recovering from a knee injury he suffered last April.

Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (23.7 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 8.7 apg)
  • DAL: Tim Hardaway, Jr. - SF (18.3 ppg)
  • DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (26.8 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 4.5 apg)
  • DEN: Aaron Gordon - PF (13 ppg, 7.3 rpg)

Injuries

  • DAL: Trey Burke - PG (Out)
  • DAL: Sterling Brown - SF (DTD)
  • DAL: Boban Marjanovic - C (DTD)
  • DAL: Kristaps Porzingis - C (DTD)
  • DEN: Nikola Jokica - C (DTD)
  • DEN: Vlatko Cancar - SF (Out)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Conclusion

After posting back-to-back double-digit losses against the Cavaliers and Jazz, the Nuggets will head into their fifth matchup of the new season as narrow-favorites over the visiting Mavericks – marking just the second time Dallas has been an underdog this year.

I’ll take the points with the Mavericks here, as Denver typically struggles to lockdown elite perimeter threats, like Doncic, when Murray is absent from the lineup – which is why I’m also backing Luka to post his first 30-point performance of the year in Friday night’s affair.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Trends

  • Denver has gone UNDER the point total in three of its last four games.
  • Denver has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.
  • Dallas has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Denver.
  • The road team has won four of the last five meetings.


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