Last Updated Nov 02, 2021, 8:00 AM

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 2, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Regular season NBA action will resume on Tuesday night with a heavyweight non-conference showdown between the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Heat 117, Mavericks 106

Best Bets

Heat -1.5

Kyle Lowry (TOR) Over Points

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After losing a heartbreaking seven-game playoff series to the Clippers, the Mavericks quickly jumped out to an impressive 4-2 start to the new season – with Dallas boasting somewhat narrow victories over the Raptors, Rockets, Spurs, and Kings to kick off the year (+29).

In contests against relatively high-quality opponents though, Dallas has struggled miserably – highlighted by the Mavericks posting blowout losses by an average margin of 28.5 PPG across matchups against the Hawks and Nuggets, which are the only two playoff-caliber teams Dallas has squared off against.

On the other hand, the Heat made a blockbuster move to acquire six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry from Toronto during the offseason – and while Lowry is still yet to fully settle in with his new team (8.4 PPG, 7.2 AST), Miami has played some excellent basketball to open the year (5-1).

What’s even more impressive about Miami’s hot start, is the heightened difficulty of their schedule so far, considering the Heat have already earned wins over the Bucks, Nets, Magic, Hornets, and Grizzlies – with three of those victories coming in matchups Jimmy Butler and company were underdogs in.

I’ll take the points with Miami here, as Dallas is 0-2 with a pair of ugly blowout losses against teams that reached last year’s playoffs – and they’ll likely struggle against another upper-tier playoff squad in the Heat on Tuesday night.

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change

  • Heat -130
  • Mavericks +110
  • Heat -1.5 (-115)
  • Mavericks +1.5 (-105)
  • Over 214.5 (-110)
  • Under 214.5 (-110)

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Southeast vs. Southwest
  • Date: Tuesday, November 2, 2021
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • TV-Time: TNT - 7:30 p.m. ET



Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-1
  • ATS: 5-1
  • O/U: 2-4

After getting swept out of last year’s playoffs in the first round by Milwaukee, the Heat made some dramatic offseason changes in order to help better suit their needs for the immediate future, as Miami shipped Goran Dragic Precious Achiuwa to Toronto in exchange for Lowry in a blockbuster deal.

Miami already stood as an incredibly solid squad prior to the trade, considering the Heat valiantly paved their way to the NBA Finals through the Orlando bubble a few years back – and got eliminated by the defending champs in the first round of last year’s playoffs, which doesn’t look all that bad in hindsight.

Once Lowry settles into a rhythm with his new team, the Heat should comfortably rank alongside all the top contenders in the East – and it’s only a matter of time before the majority comes to terms with that notion.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-2
  • ATS: 2-4
  • O/U: 0-6

After getting eliminated in the first round of last year’s playoffs, Dallas was gifted with an immediate opportunity to remind the basketball world of the drastic improvement they made throughout last season – as the Mavericks ventured to Atlanta to face Trae Young and the Hawks in their opening matchup.

Dallas completely missed the boat on that opportunity though, considering the Mavericks scored just 87 points on 33% FG during their blowout loss to Atlanta on opening night (L, 113-87) – highlighted by Luka Doncic scoring just 18 PTS on 6-of-17 shooting throughout the event.

Dallas skated by with somewhat narrow victories over the Raptors, Rockets, and Spurs in the following three matchups, which quieted most immediate criticism – but the Mavs’ finally drew their second playoff-caliber opponent in Denver this past Friday, and suffered another ugly blowout loss (L, 106-75).

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

The Mavericks won both meetings between Dallas and Miami last season, with the first of those matchups staying well below the total set for Tuesday’s affair (93-83) – and the second soaring way over that mark (127-113).

Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (25.3 ppg, 7 rpg, 5.5 apg)
  • MIA: Kyle Lowry - PG (8.4 ppg, 4 rpg, 7.2 apg)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (22.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 7.5 apg)
  • DAL: Tim Hardaway, Jr. - SF (13.3 ppg)

Injuries

  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (DTD)
  • MIA: Max Strus - SG (Out)
  • DAL: Maxi Kelber - PF (Out)
  • DAL: Kristaps Porzingis - C (Out)

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After extending their winning streak to four games this past Saturday, the Heat will head into Tuesday night’s contest as narrow underdogs against the home standing Mavericks.

I’ll take the points with Miami here, as Dallas has struggled against playoff-caliber teams early on this season – and the new-look Heat are much better than most give them credit for, which is why I’m also taking Lowry to bounce back on the scoreboard in Tuesday’s affair.

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in six straight games.
  • Miami has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
  • Miami has won 16 of its last 20 games when facing Dallas.
  • The point total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.


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