Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Nationally televised NBA action will resume on Sunday evening with a primetime Western Conference showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Mavericks 112, Warriors 110

Best Bets

Mavericks +4 at BetMGM

Mavericks vs. Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run – with 14 of those victories coming by double-digits.

The last few months have been relatively shaky for Golden State though, considering the Warriors enter Sunday riding a bumpy 25-14 SU and 15-21-3 ATS stretch – despite getting tagged as favorites in 31 of those contests.

On the other hand, the Mavericks stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as Dallas kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid – with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

Dallas has found success through defense recently though, considering the Mavericks enter Sunday riding a sturdy 19-7 SU and 17-9 ATS run – while surrendering just 101.3 DPPG to their opponents across that span.

I’ll back Dallas here, as the Warriors enter Sunday riding a bumpy 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS skid, while scoring 111.3 OPPG and allowing 112.2 DPPG during that timeframe – setting the stage for a tough home matchup against a Mavericks squad that’s allowing just 101.6 DPPG across their latest 7-1 ATS run.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Mavericks vs. Warriors Betting Resources

• Matchup: Southwest vs. Pacific
• Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
• Venue: Chase Center
• Location: San Francisco, CA
• TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET
• Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

• SU: 35-25
• ATS: 33-27
• O/U: 21-38-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas kept that same ball rolling with another lackluster start to this season, as the Mavericks opened with a frustrating 16-18 and 13-21 ATS skid – with five of those SU losses coming matchups they were underdogs in.

Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense through the winter months though, considering the Mavericks enter Sunday riding an impressive 19-7 SU run – while surrendering 100 PTS or less in 14 of those contests (101.3 DPPG).

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

• SU: 43-17
• ATS: 30-26-4
• O/U: 25-33-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU regular-season showing, Golden State returned seeking immediate vengeance to kick off the new season, as the Warriors opened with wins in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that span coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has surprisingly leaned on defense since December, as the Warriors enter Sunday riding a relatively pedestrian 25-14 SU stretch, while scoring just 109.2 OPPG and allowing 105.4 DPPG across that span. Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, considering the Warriors are averaging 112.9 OPPG across their latest 11-4 SU run.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Head-to-Head

The Mavericks won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at a lofty average of 255 PPG. The Mavericks and Warriors similarly split their first two matchups of this season, with the first meeting staying under the number and resulting in a win for Golden State (99-82) – while the second resulted in another high-scoring victory for Dallas (130-92).

Key Players to Watch

• DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (27.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 9 AST)
• DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.1 PPG, 3.8 REB, 5.4 AST)
• GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.7 PPG, 5.3 REB, 6.5 AST)
• GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (17.1 PPG, 3.8 REB, 3 AST)

Mavericks vs. Warriors Betting Conclusion

After stomping Portland in their first matchup following the All-Star Break (W, 132-95), the Warriors enter Sunday’s contest as five-point home favorites over the Mavericks at Chase Center – marking the sixth straight game Golden State has been favored in. 

I’ll take the points with Dallas here, as the Mavericks are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, while scoring 113.5 OPPG and allowing just 105 DPPG across that span – likely presenting a difficult task for a Warriors squad that’s allowing an average of 112.2 DPPG across their latest 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS skid. 

Mavericks vs. Warriors Betting Trends

• The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
• The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 matchups against Golden State.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the last five matchups between Dallas and Golden State.
• The total has gone OVER in five straight Warriors' games.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson