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Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

Monday’s slate of First Round NBA Playoff action will conclude with a pivotal Game 5 between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins from American Airlines Center in Dallas at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Mavericks 112, Jazz 104

Best Bets

Mavericks -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After earning the top spot in the West with a record of 52-20 last year, Utah briefly sustained that same level of excellence with another dominant start to this season, as the Jazz opened with a triumphant 26-9 SU and 17-17-2 ATS run – with 20 of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Utah has been on quite the injury rollercoaster since mid-January, considering the Jazz closed the regular season with a bumpy 23-24 SU and 17-28-2 ATS stretch, with a huge chunk of those SU losses coming in the absence of Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert (10).

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid though, considering the Mavericks enter Monday’s Game 5 riding an impressive 38-14 SU and 34-18 ATS run, while surrendering just 104.8 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

I’ll back Dallas here, as Luka Doncic returned from his calf injury in Game 4 and tallied 30 PTS on 52.4% across 34 minutes of action, and while Luka’s effort wasn’t quite enough to topple Utah on the road in Game 4, I expect the Mavs’ supporting cast to play much better at home in Game 5 and take a 3-2 lead in this series.

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

  • SU: 51-35
  • ATS: 34-48-4
  • O/U: 39-45-2

Utah has easily been one of the league’s most consistent squads across the last few regular seasons, which is no fluke, considering the Jazz boast a very well-balanced attack, highlighted by Utah ranking first in the league in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency on the year (1.130 OE, 1.073 DE).

However, Utah’s consistency quickly fades without the combined presence of MitchellandGobert, considering the Jazz’ top-ranked offensive attack is just 25-26 SU skid across their last 51 games, while averaging just 111 OPPG during that span.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 54-32
  • ATS: 49-36-1
  • O/U: 33-52-1

After another disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas initially kept the disappointment train rolling with a mediocre start to this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas turned things around through excellent defense during the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Monday’s Game 5 riding an impressive 38-14 SU run, despite averaging just 109.8 OPPG across that stretch.

The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine matchups against Utah. (Getty Images)

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

Utah won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.3 PPG. However, Utah and Dallas split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with both Jazz’ victories going over the total at an average of 229.5 PPG, while both Mavericks’ wins stayed under with an average of 214 PPG.

The Jazz and Mavs’ also split their first four matchups of this series 2-2 SU, with Games 1 and 4 resulting in victories Utah, and staying under the total at an average of 195.5 PPG – while Games 2 and 3 cruised over at 229 PPG, which resulted in a pair of wins for Dallas.

Key Players to Watch

  • UTA: Donovan Mitchell - SG (25.9 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.3 AST)
  • UTA: Rudy Gobert - C (15.6 PPG, 14.7 REB, 2.1 BLK)
  • DAL: Spener Dinwiddie - PG (13.7 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.2 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - SG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After evening the series at 2-2 with a thrilling home win in Game 4 this past Saturday (W, 100-99), the Jazz hit the road for Monday’s fifth matchup as three-point underdogs against the Mavs’ at American Airlines Center – marking the first time Dallas has been favored in this series.

I’ll back Dallas here, as the Mavericks jumped out to a 2-1 lead over Utah despite the absence of Doncic, and while the Jazz escaped Salt Lake City with a narrow 100-99 victory in Game 4, I expect this series to lean towards Dallas the rest of the way, especially at home.

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • The Jazz are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Mavericks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Jazz' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 Mavs' games.
  • The Jazz are 1-8 ATS in their last nine matchups against Dallas.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the six matchups between Utah and Dallas.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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