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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Thursday’s slate of First Round NBA action will conclude with a blockbuster Western Conference Game 6 between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz. Coverage begins from Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Jazz 103, Mavericks 101

Best Bets

Under 209.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions

After earning the top spot in the West with a record of 52-20 last year, Utah briefly sustained that same level of excellence with another dominant start to this season, as the Jazz opened with a triumphant 26-9 SU and 17-17-2 ATS run, with 20 of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Utah has been on quite the injury rollercoaster since mid-January, considering the Jazz closed the regular season with a bumpy 23-24 SU and 17-28-2 ATS stretch, with a huge chunk of those SU losses coming in the absence of Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert (10).

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid though, considering the Mavericks enter Thursday’s Game 6 riding an impressive 39-14 SU and 35-18 ATS run, while surrendering just 104.3 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

I’ll take the under here, as the pace of this series has slowed down dramatically since the return of Luka Doncic, considering two of the first three postseason matchups between these teams cruised over the total at an average of 216.7 PPG, while Games 4 and 5 both stayed under with an average of 189 PPG, ultimately steering me towards the lower side of the equation for the rest of this series.

Updated on 05/07/2024
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Resources

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 55-32
  • ATS: 50-36-1
  • O/U: 33-53-1

After another disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas initially kept the disappointment train rolling with a mediocre start to this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas turned things around with excellent defense during the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Thursday’s Game 6 riding an impressive 39-14 SU run, despite averaging just 109.7 OPPG across that stretch.

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

  • SU: 51-36
  • ATS: 34-49-4
  • O/U: 39-46-2

Utah has easily been one of the league’s most consistent squads across the last few regular seasons, which is no fluke, considering the Jazz boast a very well-balanced attack, highlighted by Utah ranking first in the league in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency on the year (1.126 OE, 1.073 DE).

Utah’s consistency quickly fades without the combined presence of Mitchell and Gobert though, considering the Jazz’ top-ranked offensive attack is averaging just 110.3 OPPG across their latest 25-27 skid.

The Jazz are 12-2 SU in their last 14 home games against Dallas. (Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Head-to-Head

Utah won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.3 PPG. However, Utah and Dallas split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with both Jazz’ victories going over the total at an average of 229.5 PPG, while both Mavericks’ wins stayed under with an average of 214 PPG.

The Jazz and Mavs’ also split their first four matchups of this series 2-2 SU, with Games 1 and 4 resulting in victories for Utah and staying under the total at an average of 195.5 PPG, while Games 2 and 3 cruised over at 229 PPG, which resulted in a pair of wins for Dallas.

However, Dallas finally broke that trend in Game 5, as the Mavericks’ 102-77 victory this past Monday stayed well under the total of OU 212.

Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • UTA: Donovan Mitchell - SG (25.9 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.3 AST)
  • UTA: Rudy Gobert - C (15.6 PPG, 14.7 REB, 2.1 BLK)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 lead with a blowout victory at home in Game 5 (W, 102-77), the Mavericks hit the road for Thursday’s sixth matchup as two-point favorites over the Jazz at Vivint Arena, marking the first time Dallas has been favored on the road this series.

I’ll take the under here, as the Mavs’ and Jazz have combined for 189 OPPG across their two matchups since Luka’s return to action, with both contests falling comfortably under its respective total; and while it may seem unwise to expect such dominant defensive efforts as this series unwinds, taking the under is probably your best bet for Thursday’s elimination game in Salt Lake City.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 12 Mavs' games.
  • The Jazz are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games.
  • The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last ten matchups against Utah.
  • The Jazz are 12-2 SU in their last 14 home games against Dallas.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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