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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
12 minute read

The Eastern Conference Finals will resume on Friday night with a blockbuster Game 6 showdown between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Updated on 05/10/2024
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Score Prediction

Celtics 98, Heat 94

Best Bets

Under 201 (-110) at Caesars

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics have allowed just 102.9 DPPG across their latest 47-16 SU run, which includes an average of 101.8 DPPG in the first two postseason rounds against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and an average of 98.2 DPPG through the first five matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way through the Conference Finals Round, considering the Heat enter Game 6 riding an impressive 48-24 SU and 40-31-1 ATS stretch, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.099 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as the first three matchups of this series went over the total at an average of 222 PPG, however, Games 4 and 5 both stayed under thanks to a pair of dismal offensive performances by Miami (81 OPPG, 39% FG); and while the Heat should ultimately play much better on the brink of elimination in Game 6, I still expect to see a relatively low-scoring battle against a Celtics squad that averaged 102.5 OPPG across Games 3 and 4 in Boston (44% FG, 30% 3FG).

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Resources

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 63-35
  • ATS: 55-42-1
  • O/U: 54-44

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry; and at first, everything worked perfectly, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in December.

Depth hasn’t been much of an issue as of late though, considering the Heat boast SU victories in 48 of their last 72 contests, which includes sturdy postseason records of 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS, despite Lowry missing half of those contests (8).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 62-36
  • ATS: 55-41-2
  • O/U: 47-49-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Game 6 riding an impressive 47-16 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 30 of those contests (112.2 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 26 of them (102.9 DPPG).

The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home matchups against Boston. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

The first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster though, as the Heat ran away with a double-digit home victory in Game 1 after outscoring Boston 39-14 in the third quarter (118-107, O 204); which Boston countered with a dominant win of its own in Game 2, as the Celtics erupted for 127 PTS behind a magnificent 20-of-40 three-point performance last Thursday (127-102, O 206).

In Game 3, however, the visiting team prospered again, as Miami jumped out to a massive 21-point lead in the first quarter of Saturday’s affair (39-18), and barely held on for the win thanks to Boston turning the ball over 23 times throughout the contest (109-103, O 208).

Boston flipped the script in Games 4 and 5 though, considering the Celtics enter Friday following back-to-back double-digit victories in their previous two affairs, while smothering Miami to 81 OPPG on 39% FG and 26% 3FG across those contests.

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 series lead with a commanding road victory in Game 5 (W, 93-80), the Celtics return home for Friday’s sixth matchup as nine-point favorites over the Heat at TD Garden, which is considerably heavier than the number Boston was favored by in its first two home matchups of this series (BOS -6).

I’ll take the under here, as the total has gone over in ten of the last 15 matchups between Miami and Boston, which includes a trio of relatively high-scoring battles to open this series (222 PPG); however, Games 4 and 5 stayed well under at an average of 178.5 PPG, which is much closer to the pace expected down the stretch of this series.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The Heat are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's last seven road games.
  • The Celtics are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against Miami.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 15 matchups between Boston and Miami.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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