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NBA

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

The Eastern Conference Finals will conclude on Sunday night with a blockbuster Game 7 showdown between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Celtics 98, Heat 94

Best Bets

Under 195.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since mid-January, considering the Celtics have allowed just 103 DPPG across their latest 47-17 SU run, which includes an average of 101.8 DPPG in the first two postseason rounds against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and 100.3 DPPG through the first six matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way through the Conference Finals Round, considering the Heat enter Game 7 riding an impressive 49-24 SU and 41-31-1 ATS stretch, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.099 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as four of six matchups in this series have gone over the total, which includes Game 6 this past Friday (111-103, O 202); however, Games 4 and 5 stayed well under at an average of 178.5 PPG, which is much closer to the expected scoring output between a pair of squads allowing less than 102 DPPG this postseason (MIA – 100.4 DPPG, BOS – 101.3 DPPG).

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 62-37
  • ATS: 55-42-2
  • O/U: 48-49-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Sunday’s contest riding an impressive 47-17 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 30 of those contests (112 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 26 of them (103 DPPG).

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 64-35
  • ATS: 56-42-1
  • O/U: 55-44

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry; and at first, everything worked perfectly, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid in December.

Depth hasn’t been much of an issue as of late though, considering the Heat boast SU victories in 49 of their last 73 contests, which includes sturdy postseason records of 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS, despite Lowry missing nearly half of those contests (8).

The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Miami. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Miami won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Boston last year, with both Heat’ victories soaring over the total at an average of 252 OPPG, while the Celtics’ lone win stayed under with a score of 107-105 (U 217).

However, the Celtics went 3-0 SU against Miami this season, with their first and third matchups staying well under the total at an average of 188.5 PPG, while the second went over with a score of 122-92 (O 210).

The first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster though, as the Heat ran away with a double-digit home win in Game 1 after outscoring Boston 39-14 in the third quarter (118-107, O 204); which Boston countered with a dominant victory of its own, as the Celtics erupted for 127 PTS behind a magnificent 20-of-40 three-point performance in Game 2 (127-102, O 206).

In Game 3, however, the visiting team prospered again, as Miami jumped out to a massive 21-point lead in the first quarter (39-18) and barely held on for the win thanks to Boston’s 23 turnovers throughout the contest (109-103, O 208).

The Celtics flipped the script in the ensuing two affairs though, considering Boston posted back-to-back double-digit victories in Games 4 and 5 to take a 3-2 series lead; only to have that lead immediately squandered by Miami’s gutsy road win on the heels of Jimmy Butler’s 47-point performance in Game 6 (111-103, O 202).

Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After posting an impressive road victory in Game 6 to force Sunday’s winner-take-all seventh matchup (W, 111-103), the Heat return home for Game 7 as three-point underdogs against the Celtics at FTX Arena, which is slightly shorter than the number Boston was favored by on the road in Game 5 (BOS -3.5).

I’ll take the under here, as the total has gone under in six of Miami’s nine home matchups this postseason, while holding their opponents to 99.7 DPPG across those nine contests, setting the stage for a particularly low-scoring series finale against a Celtics squad that’s allowed just 98.9 DPPG since the start of their second-round playoff matchup against Milwaukee.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The Heat are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last six Heat' games.
  • The Celtics are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
  • The Heat are 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games.
  • The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 16 matchups between Boston and Miami.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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