NFL Odds Week 15: Jets vs Dolphins Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends
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Week 15 of the NFL season continues with what's expected to be a lopsided AFC East tilt between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. The betting odds see New York as a heavy road underdog coming off a blowout win over Houston last week. Coverage begins from Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida on Sunday, December 17 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 15: Jets vs. Dolphins lines, spreads, betting trends and more.
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New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Odds
- Opening point spread: Dolphins -10.5
- Opening moneyline: Dolphins -700/Jets +475
- Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami hit DraftKings' NFL odds Week 15 market at -10.5 last Sunday night and quickly advanced to -12. But Monday brought a dip to -10, and Tuesday – in the wake of a loss to the Titans – saw Miami plunge to -7.5.
The line rebounded to -9.5 a couple times Thursday/Friday, but it's now back down to -8. Miami is drawing 56% of spread tickets and dollars.
Weather (rain/gusty wind) could be a factor today. The total is at 37, down from a 40 opener but up from a 36.5 low point hit multiple times Saturday/this morning. Ticket count is 4/1 and money just shy of 2/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The line took a sizable tumble over the course of this week, in part due to Miami's stunning Monday night loss to Tennessee. BetMGM opened Jets-Dolphins at Miami -12.5 and was down to -10.5 even before the Monday night setback.
The Dolphins dipped to -9.5/-9/-8.5 Wednesday, then Thursday evening rebounded to -9.5. New York is getting 57% of spread bets, while Miami is drawing 57% of spread money.
BetMGM's total opened at 40.5 and plunged to 37 by Wednesday. It's at 37 this afternoon, with 72% of bets/82% of money on the Under. By ticket count, Jets-Dolphins is the second-most-bet Under of the week at BetMGM.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Miami (9-4 SU/8-5 ATS) suffered a stunning collapse on Monday Night Football, blowing a 27-13 lead in the final 4.5 minutes. The Dolphins, 13.5-point home faves, allowed two late Tennessee touchdowns and lost 28-27.
Prior to the Titans-Dolphins game, The SuperBook had Jets-Dolphins at Miami -10.5. This morning, the line reopened at Dolphins -9, and it literally just now moved to -8.5. The total reopened at 40 and moved to 39.5/39 within 90 minutes.
Star Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter of Monday's loss. Hill returned in the second half, but his status for this week isn't certain yet.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New York scored 13 points or less in six straight games heading into Week 14. So it was certainly a surprise to see the Jets (5-8 SU/5-7-1 ATS) shellack Houston 30-6 as 3-point home 'dogs.
That ended a five-game SU and ATS purge for the Jets.
Meanwhile, Miami (9-3 SU/8-4 ATS) isn't yet out of Week 14. The Dolphins host Tennessee on Monday night.
The Jets-Dolphins line opened Miami -10.5 at The Superbook and nudged to -11 tonight. There's no change in the total.
Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 15 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.
Jets vs Dolphins Pick, Prediction
Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:
We already know the Jets won't score much — see above, or just any Jets game this season — but New York's defense is the best, healthiest unit on the field and should hold its own. Miami's offense has struggled against top competition, and it has particularly struggled when the offensive line has had issues. When all the pieces of the Dolphins' offense are out there in sync, it's a beautiful whirring Mike McDaniel machine. But when the timing is thrown off and the machine is off-kilter, it can go very sideways.
We saw that Monday night, when the Dolphins' offense had only three points at home going into the fourth quarter against Tennessee. We also saw a deceivingly high total between these teams on Black Friday. The game finished at 47, but featured two pick-6s and two garbage-time TDs in the past five minutes, leaving just 20 points otherwise.
The gusty wind should make scoring difficult. Over the past three years, games with at least a 10 mph wind have gone under 64% of the time. Jets games average 35.3 PPG this season, with nine of the 13 at 38 points or below, and Zach Wilson games with a total 41 or lower are 9-2 to the under (82%).
Pick: Under 37.5
For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 15: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.
The One Stat to Know About Jets vs Dolphins
Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:
The Jets are double-digit dog vs. Dolphins in division. In November or earlier, double-digit division dogs are 85-56-6 ATS (60.3%) last 20 years. In December and January, they are 65-68-3 ATS (48.9%).
For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 15 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.
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