NFL Odds Week 17: Patriots vs Bills Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Week 17 of the NFL season continues with an AFC East battle between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The betting odds see New England as a double-digit underdog despite posting wins in two of their last three games. Coverage begins from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Sunday, December 31 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Week 17: Patriots vs. Bills lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -13.5
• Opening moneyline: Bills -750/Patriots +500
• Opening total: Over/Under 40 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 12:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo is all the way out to -15 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bills opened -13 and initially slipped back to -11.5 last Sunday night. But the line has been steadily on the rise since then and today made the jump off -14 to -14.5/-15.

That said, spread play is not leaning toward Buffalo. Rather, underdog New England is seeing 60% of spread tickets/57% of spread money. But rest assured that the Bills are in countless teasers and are seen as a free space in moneyline parlays.

The total opened at 40.5 and peaked at 41 last Sunday. It's been at 40 since Thursday, with tickets 2/1 and money 2.5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Bills hit BetMGM's NFL odds Week 17 market as 12.5-point favorites. On Tuesday, the line dipped to Buffalo -12, but Wednesday rebounded to -12.5/-13. Early this afternoon, the Bills stretched to -13.5/-14.

Buffalo is getting 55% of spread tickets/66% of spread money. And although moneyline tickets are 2/1 Patriots, moneyline cash is 2/1 Bills.

The total moved from 41 to 40.5 Wednesday, then to 40 Thursday. The Over is seeing 61% of tickets/67% of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo (9-6 SU/6-8-1 ATS) is probably the team no one wants to face in the AFC playoffs. But the Bills didn't exactly play like that in Week 16. Buffalo closed as 12.5-point chalk at the L.A. Rams and needed a last-minute field goal to win 24-22.

The Bills have won three in a row as part of a 4-1 overall surge.

Meanwhile, New England (4-11 SU/4-10-1 ATS) pulled off a stunning upset at Denver on Sunday night. The Patriots were 7-point 'dogs and had a 23-7 lead entering the fourth quarter. Bill Belichick's squad gave it all back and was in a 23-23 tie late.

But New England got a field goal in the waning seconds to win 26-23.

The Patriots-Bills spread and total are stable tonight in The SuperBook's NFL odds Week 17 market.

"We will push this game as high as we can before the wiseguys buy back," Michaelson said. "Even with the stumble against L.A. on Saturday night, I can only imagine one-way public action on this game, as the Pats slowly play out the string and Buffalo charges toward the division showdown with Miami in two weeks."

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 17 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Patriots vs Bills Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

For better or worse, New England is still trying hard under Bill Belichick, and that means the defense should still show up. The Patriots' defense has been better on the road, 6th by DVOA versus 17th at home, and Buffalo's defense has been better at home. Even if this game isn't super competitive, it's probably not going to see a huge Bills score in December conditions with a huge game against the Dolphins waiting next week.

Buffalo's run defense has been inconsistent, and the Patriots run often so that sets up the usual Belichick underdog script. That should keep the clock moving and help the under.

Pick: Under 40.5

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Week 17: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Patriots vs Bills

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

The Patriots are 6-15 SU, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Week 17 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson