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SB Props – Defense/ST Best Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources

Undecided on the Chiefs or 49ers in Super Bowl 54? Can’t figure out to play the ‘over’ or the ‘Under’ next Sunday?

Fortunately for bettors on the fence, sportsbooks have increased their proposition wagers market for Super Bowl 54. Similar to past finales, a group of our top NFL experts are offering up their predictions on the most popular “props” for the finale between Kansas City and San Francisco.

This season, we’ve broken the props wagers into specific categories.

Defensive Props - Best Bets

Matt Blunt - Total Turnovers - Over 2.5

Two relatively young quarterbacks will face off as Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo meet this Sunday. I believe the two kids are going to feel the nerves on the Super Bowl 54 stage, and with the respective pass rushes forcing them into making throws earlier then they want to, I expect both QB's throw at least 1 INT in this game.

Joe Williams - First Turnover - Interception (-155)

For this prop wager, I believe Jimmy Garoppolo will help cash this ticket. I understand he's only attempted 27 passes in the playoffs but that will change Sunday. He's got 13 interceptions in 16 games and he does try to force the ball into the middle. The defense of the San Francisco 49ers is very opportunistic and I can see a quick pick in this spot.

Defensive Props - Consensus Picks

Defensive Props - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Total Interceptions 1.5 Under Under Over Under Under Over Under
Total Turnovers 2.5 Under Under Over Under Under Over Under
Total Sacks 4.5 Over Over Over Over Under Over Over
Team to Commit First Turnover SF SF KC SF KC SF SF
Team to Commit Most Turnovers SF SF SF SF KC SF SF
Team to Record First Sack KC SF KC SF KC SF Push
First Turnover
Interception (-155)
Fumble (+150)
No Turnovers (+700)		 INT Fumble INT Fumble INT INT INT

Special Teams Props - Best Bets

Hank Goldberg - Over 3.5 Field Goals

This is one of my top props for Super Bowl 54 and I touched on it earlier. Both teams have had success moving the football but you often see points left off the board. Even though the Chiefs have a 11:1 touchdown-field goal ratio in two playoff games, I believe the 49ers defense will be able to hold them to threes instead of sixes in this spot. The 49ers have come up empty in the playoffs on offense, settling for five field goals. That was a carry-over effect from the regular season, with San Francisco ranked 21st in red-zone touchdown percentage.

Hank Goldberg - Missed Extra Point - Yes +300

While the Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has had great leg this season, connecting on 34-of-38 attempts. Only having four misses is very impressive and that’s why it’s a tad surprising that the Georgia Tech product missed almost as many extra points. When lining up for the PAT, he was 45-of-48 and I could see the 24-year-old kid to come up short on Sunday. I’m buying the generous odds and if you want a long shot wager, then expect one of these kicks to hit the uprights as well.

Special Teams Props - Consensus Picks

Special Teams Props - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Either team to miss a FG
Yes +100 No -125		 No No No No No No No
Either team to miss a PAT
Yes +300 No -455		 No Yes No No No No No
Total Successful Field Goals 3.5 Under Over Over Under Over Over Over
Total Punts 6.5 Under Under Over Under Under Over Under
Any FG or PAT to hit Uprights
Yes +400 No -670		 No Yes No No No No No

Meet the VI Experts

Joe Nelson – Senior NFL writer and handicapper for VegasInsider.com. “Nelly” puts in the work and makes it looks easy.

Hank Goldberg – Staple of the industry and legendary Vegas expert. The “Hammer” has covered every Super Bowl since it began.

Matt Blunt – The VegasInsider.com genius behind our weekly “Best Bets” and also the master of data mining. His must-read SB54 pieces include analysis: Kevin Rogers – Along with being host of the Bet and Collect Podcast, K-Rog provides his informative articles and experts picks to VI for multiple sports.

Tony Mejia – The best volume handicapper on VegasInsider.com, creator of the Antony Dinero brand. You can listen to him as a regular guest and co-host on the Bet and Collect podcast weekly.

Joe Williams – Built his chops by playing Daily Fantasy Sports and has turned that experience into sports betting profits. Provides weekly articles and picks for VI.

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