Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Oct. 3, 2021

Joe Williams
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) and Green Bay Packers (2-1) battle in an AFC-NFC matchup in a nationally-televised game in the later-afternoon window. These are two teams going in opposite directions, and the Steelers are in desperate need of a victory to turn things around and key pace in an ultra-competitive AFC North Division. Playing in Lambeau Field against the perennial contender Packers is a tough place to get a turnaround.

Score Prediction: Packers 31, Steelers 20

Best Bet: Packers -6.5

Best Bet: Over 45.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions

The Steelers opened the season with a win against the Super Bowl contender Buffalo Bills in their place, and Pittsburgh looked like a team which might need to be taken very seriously. Losses at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals, in which the offense looked very, very listless, has people putting down their Terrible Towels to wring their hands, something we don’t see from Yinzers very often.

The Packers fans know all about worry. After Green Bay was dusted in Jacksonville in a neutral-site game against the New Orleans Saints, 38-3, people were worried about Aaron Rodgers, and his commitment to the team, and a ton of other concerns about the run game, the defense, the coaching staff, etc. A Monday Night Football win against the Detroit Lions quelled some concerns, and confidence is back after a road win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in a game Rodgers and the offense looked terrific.

This game two weeks ago looked like it might be a blowout in favor of the road team. Now, the Packers are expected to win this game on their home turf, and they’re likely going to win it by double digits.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC North vs. NFC North
• Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
• Venue: Lambeau Field
• Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
• TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-2
• ATS: 1-2
• O/U: 0-3
• ATS - Home: 0-2
• ATS - Away: 1-0

The Steelers have seen QB Ben Roethlisberger age dramatically in the past couple of injury-plagued seasons, and he has the look of a quarterback who is overstaying his welcome. The offense has managed just 308.3 total yards of offense per game, good for just 25th in the NFL, but that’s not all Big Ben’s fault.

The pass game has tossed up 255.3 yards per game, good for 13 th . Rookie Najee Harris has started slow, and the run game is good for just 53.0 yards per game, which is dead-last in the NFL. So all the blame shouldn’t fall at the feet of Roethlisberger.

The defense has been so-so, allowing 354.7 total yards per game to rank 13 th . Against the pass, Pittsburgh is just average, giving up 266.3 yards per game through the air to rank 20th . Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow did a good job last week in his first win in Pittsburgh, and if Burrow in Week 3, and Derek Carr in Week 2, can pick apart this Pittsburgh pass defense, imagine what an elite quarterback like Rodgers and an elite wide receiver like Davante Adams will do.

The Steelers have lost and failed to cover in two straight, both at home, and they have hit the UNDER in all three games to date.

Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 2-1
• ATS: 2-1
• O/U: 2-1
• ATS - Home: 1-0
• ATS - Away: 1-1

As mentioned, that first game against the Saints had everyone in Wisconsin tremendously worried that the championship window had slammed shut after a tumultuous offseason with the will-he or won’t-he situation of Rodgers. However, a win and cover against the Lions in a Monday nighter, and a thrilling Sunday night road win in San Francisco has the confidence of the Packers fans sky-high. All is well in Cheeseheadland again, and they have won and covered two in a row while hitting the OVER in each of those outings.

The Packers have averaged just 79.7 yards per game on the ground, good for 30th , and that’s not likely to change much against a decent Steelers rush defense. Green Bay is averaging just 301.7 total yards per game to rank 26th , but those numbers are held down a bit still due to that debacle in Week 1. The Pack moved the ball up and down the field against a good 49ers defense, and you can expect more of the same in front of the home fans in this one.

Defensively, Green Bay has actually had it on lock down. They rank ninth with just 321.3 total yards per game allowed, and just 206.0 passing yards per game allowed. They’ll dare the Steelers to rush the football, something they haven’t done very well to date. Against the pass, Green Bay is brimming with confidence, and they won’t allow the big plays downfield.

The Green Bay Packers have won 16 of their last 18 home games when playing in October. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers

• Record: 1-2
• Division Standing: 4th - AFC North
• Points Scored: 50
• Points Allowed: 66
• PS/G: 16.7 (28th)
• PA/G: 22 (12th)

Inside the Stats - Green Bay Packers

• Record: 2-1
• Division Standing: 1st - NFC North
• Points Scored: 68
• Points Allowed: 83
• PS/G: 22.7 (17th)
• PA/G: 27.7 (24th)

Key Players to Watch

• PIT: Ben Roethlisberger - QB (83/130, 801 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT)
• PIT: Najee Harris - RB (40 carries, 272 combined yards, TD)
• GNB: Aaron Rodgers - QB (60/88, 649 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT)
• GNB: Davante Adams - WR (25 catches, 309 yards, TD)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Conclusion

The Steelers surprised in Week 1, while the Packers tumbled in the opener. But both of these teams are headed in the opposite direction. Big Ben looked geriatric, and unsure of himself, while Rodgers and the Packers are no longer in ‘Jeopardy’ of stumbling. I like Green Bay to play a close game with Pittsburgh in the first half before they pull away in the second half.

In fact, I’d take the Steelers with the points in the first-half, taking advantage of a favorable live betting line heading into the second half. The Packers are averaging 22.7 PPG this season, but they are averaging 17.0 PPG across the past two games in the second half. I like a high-scoring win for the home side, and that will really get the questions going in the Steel City.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Trends

• Green Bay has won 16 of its last 18 home games when playing in October.
• Green Bay has gone OVER the point total in four straight home games.
• Pittsburgh has seen the underdog cover the spread in seven straight games.

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• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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