Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 7, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An AFC battle between the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills is set for Sunday, in what could be a battle for the first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Kick off is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on FOX from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Score Prediction

Texans 23, Dolphins 20

Best Bets

Under

Texans +6

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Tyrod Taylor will make his long-awaited return to the starting lineup for the Houston Texans this week. Taylor has been out since Week 2 with a hamstring injury, and Houston has lost every game since that point to fall to 1-7. The Texans will certainly be more competitive than they were with rookie Davis Mills under center this week against the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the AFC. Miami has not won a game since beating New England in the season opener, and the Dolphins rank in the bottom five in total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense. They shouldn’t be this much of a favorite against Houston, and the Texans have a great chance to win this game outright.

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

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Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC East
• Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
• TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Houston Texans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-7
• ATS: 4-4
• O/U: 4-4
• ATS - Home: 3-1
• ATS - Away: 1-3

Taylor was great in his two starts. He torched Jacksonville and played very well in the first half against Cleveland in Week 2. Taylor is completing 70.5% of his passes for 9.5 YPA with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He is more of a mobile threat than Davis Mills too, giving this offense another new dynamic.

The best receiver on the Texans is Brandin Cooks. Cooks has three times as many receiving yards as the next best receiver on the team, and no one else has more than 180 receiving yards. He has continued to produce despite Houston’s dismal season, so he should have even better numbers with Taylor back.

Houston has the worst run game in the NFL. The Texans are averaging just 3.3 YPC, and they dealt leading rusher Mark Ingram II to the New Orleans Saints just before the trade deadline. David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay have been splitting the carries in his absence.

This has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Houston ranks 30th in scoring defense and 29th in total defense. The Texans have an excellent linebacker in Zach Cunningham, but their other two linebackers are designated as questionable to play on Sunday.

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-7
• ATS: 2-5-1
• O/U: 4-4
• ATS - Home: 0-3
• ATS - Away: 2-2-1

Tua Tagovailoa is currently listed as questionable to play this weekend. Tagovailoa suffered a finger injury last weekend, but Brian Flores likes his chances to take the field against the Texans.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Tagovailoa has not played well. He is averaging just 6.6 YPA with seven touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. Tagovailoa has really struggled in the second and third quarter, and his best production has come from opening drives and garbage time.

Tight end Mike Gesicki could be a 1,000-yard receiver in 2021, and rookie Jaylen Waddle has taken on more of a role in this offense. However, DeVante Parker is unlikely to play and was just downgraded to doubtful. Parker is the only deep threat on the roster, so Miami will miss his ability to take the top off the defense.

Miami’s defense has done a good job stopping the run. The Dolphins are a middle of the pack run defense, but they have not fared well against good quarterbacks. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard have both been underwhelming at cornerback despite being the two highest paid players on the team.

The Miami Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Houston Texans

• Record: 1-7
• Division Standing: 4th - AFC South
• Points Scored: 119
• Points Allowed: 241
• PS/G: 14.9 (32nd)
• PA/G: 30.1 (30th)

Inside the Stats - Miami Dolphins

• Record: 1-7
• Division Standing: 4th - AFC East
• Points Scored: 138
• Points Allowed: 233
• PS/G: 17.3 (29th)
• PA/G: 233 (29th)

Key Players to Watch

• HOU: Tyrod Taylor - QB (31/44, 416 yards, 3 TD)
• HOU: Brandin Cooks - WR (51 catches, 585 yards, 2 TD)
• MIA: Tua Tagovailoa - QB (103/157, 1,040 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT)
• MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (48 catches, 413 yards, 3 TD)

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Conclusion

Houston has a great chance of pulling off the upset here. The return of Taylor will be the rising tide that lifts all boats, boosting both the ground game and the passing attack and taking pressure off the defense. The Dolphins haven’t been good, and the Texans can outduel them.

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

• Miami has failed to cover the spread in five straight games.
• Houston has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six road games.
• Houston has lost 10 straight road games when playing as the underdog.
• Houston has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Miami.
• The favorite has covered the spread in four straight meetings.

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