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Last Updated Dec 26, 2021, 21:00 PM

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions, Odds, Picks

Dec. 27, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The 16th week of regular-season NFL action will conclude on Monday night with a compelling non-conference matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints. Coverage begins from Caesars Superdome at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Dolphins 24, Saints 17

Best Bets

Dolphins -2.5 (-110) at WynnBet

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions

After finishing second in the AFC East with a record of 10-6 SU last year, Miami stumbled out to an incredibly disappointing start this season, as the Dolphins went 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS across their first eight games – with four of those losses coming by 10+ PTS.

The Dolphins have been red hot since their 1-7 SU skid though, considering Miami now enters Week 16 riding a six-game winning streak – with three of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

On the other hand, New Orleans jumped out to a surprisingly strong start to the new season, as the Saints opened with a solid 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS run – which included impressive upset victories over the Packers, Patriots, and Buccaneers.

The tables turned on New Orleans quickly following Jameis Winston’s season-ending leg injury though, considering the Saints enter Monday’s contest 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS across the last seven games – despite scoring 21 PTS or less in four of those games (19.6 PPG).

I’ll lay the points with Miami here, as the Dolphins have played excellent football as of late, scoring 24 PPG on offense and surrendering 13.2 PPG across the last six games – which is bad news for a Saints’ squad that has scored 17 PTS or less in three of the last four games (15.5 PPG).

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds

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The Saints enter Monday night’s contest as roughly three-point underdogs against the visiting Dolphins, which marks the third straight home game New Orleans has been an underdog in.

The total for Monday’s event is currently stationed south of OU 40 at most shops – marking the lowest over-under set for a Saints’ game this year.

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. NFC South
  • Date: Monday, December 27, 2021
  • Venue: Caesars Superdome
  • Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 8:15 p.m. ET

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-7
  • ATS: 7-6-1
  • O/U: 6-8
  • ATS - Away: 2-4

After a strong 10-6 regular-season showing last year, the Dolphins posted an extremely underwhelming start to this season, as Miami opened with a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS skid – while averaging just 14.8 PPG offensively across that window.

Miami’s offense still isn’t great, but it’s playing well enough to support an elite defense, considering the Dolphins are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS across their latest six-game stretch, while averaging a modest 24 PPG on offense across that timeframe – and surrendering 13.2 PPG on defense.

New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-7
  • ATS: 7-7
  • O/U: 6-8
  • ATS - Home: 3-2

After kicking things off with a surprisingly solid 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS start to the season, New Orleans appeared to finally settle in with Winston at the helm towards the end of October, as the Saints closed out the month with the division lead – while averaging a sturdy 25.1 PPG on the offensive side of the sticks.

New Orleans’ offense has been all over the place since Winston’s injury though, considering the Saints have now lost five of their last seven games – while scoring 21 PTS or less in four of those affairs (19.6 PPG).

Inside the Stats - Miami Dolphins

  • Record: 7-7
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC West
  • Points Scored: 285
  • Points Allowed: 312
  • PS/G: 20.4 (21st)
  • PA/G: 22.3 (18th)

Inside the Stats - New Orleans Saints

  • Record: 7-7
  • Division Standing: 2nd - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 313
  • Points Allowed: 285
  • PS/G: 22.4 (17th)
  • PA/G: 20.4 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Tua Tagovailoa - QB (69.% CMP, 2,141 YDS, 14 TD, 8 INT)
  • MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (86 REC, 849 YDS, 4 TD)
  • NOR: Alvin Kamara - RB (184 CAR, 38 REC, 1,016 TOT YDS, 8 TD)
  • NOR: Deonte Harris - WR (31 REC, 523 YDS, 3 TD)

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Conclusion

After knocking off Tampa Bay in an ugly low-scoring battle last week, the Saints will enter this Monday’s contest as roughly three-point underdogs against the visiting Dolphins – marking the third straight home game New Orleans has been an underdog in.

I’ll lay the points with Miami here, as Saints QB’s Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both entered the league’s health and safety protocols a few days ago, likely deeming them unavailable for Monday’s contest – which is abysmal timing, as the Dolphins come to town riding a triumphant six-game winning streak.

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS across their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Saints' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Dolphins' games.
  • The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.


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