Last Updated Sep 18, 2022, 8:17 PM

SNF Bears vs. Packers Player Prop Best Bet

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top play in the Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers game on Sunday, September 18. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

Bears vs. Packers Player Prop Pick

  • Justin Fields (CHI) Longest Completion Over 32.5 Yards (-110) 

Sunday Night Football brings us a legendary rivalry between the Bears and the Packers. Neither of these are coming off performances we expected, with the Bears beating the Niners, and the Packers being blown out by the Vikings. This is a very important game for the Packers, and getting back on track, but man how fun would it be if Justin Fields and the Bears started 2-0 in division this year. 

It was hard to get a lot of relevant data out of that monsoon game last week, but we’re going to try anyway. While we didn’t quite get the high flying Justin Fields offense I expected, we can definitely blame the weather for killing some of that creativity. The good news is, there was some obvious positives. They ran a play-action play on 30.4% of snaps, a 10% increase from last season. Let’s see how the rookie preformed last season in those scenarios - 

Justin Fields on Play Action

  • 35/57 Completions (61.4%)
  • 102.2 Passer Rating
  • 8.9 YPA, 13.3 ADOT
  • Big Time Throw % = 12.7%

As you can see, there was a clear reason this new staff wanted to run more play-action, and I only think we see that continue. While these plays obviously make the defense respect his legs, they also open up meaningful downfield opportunities to cash this bet. Fields had one or the highest ADOT’s of any QB last season, and I think we see him towards the top of the list again fairly soon. He cashed this o32.5 longest reception in game 1, despite only going 8-17 with 121 yards. 

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