Last Updated Sep 27, 2022, 1:08 PM

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 3 of the NFL season will kick things off with an AFC North rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. Coverage begins from FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.


Pittsburgh was the talk of the town heading into Week 2, as the Steelers hit the road for their season-opener against Cincy as seven-point underdogs and knocked off the reigning AFC Champs in thrilling fashion, as the Bengals’ offense turned the ball over five times and shanked a game-winning 26-yard field goal en route to Pittsburgh’s narrow Week 1 victory (W, 23-20). However, the Steelers weren’t quite as fortunate against Bill Belichick’s squad in Week 2, as Mitch Trubisky and co. scored just 14 PTS on 243 total yards and turned the ball over twice against the Patriots this past Sunday, resulting in a relatively uneventful 17-14 win for New England.

The Browns, on the other hand, posted an inspired start to the season, as Cleveland racked up 26 PTS on 355 yards of total offense in a narrow road win over Baker Mayfield and the Panthers in Week 1 (W, 26-24), marking the Browns’ first 1-0 start since 2004. However, that success was very short-lived, as the Browns played host to the Jets in Week 2, and they let an ugly one slip away, as Cleveland took a commanding 30-17 lead with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter, but a busted defensive coverage and onside kick recovery led to a stunning come-from-behind victory for the Jets (L, 31-30).

OU 40.5 is tied for the lowest opening total set for a matchup this season, with last week’s Patriots-Steelers (u42.5) and Browns-Jets’ matchups (o40.5) being the only ones to rival that number thus far. I’ll take the under here, as the Browns’ offense has averaged 28 PPG on 380 YPG through the first two weeks of the season, however, I don’t expect them to gain much traction against a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed 20 PTS or less in back-to-back matchups to open the year (18.5 PPG).

Score Prediction: Browns 20, Steelers 16
Best Bet: Under 38.5 (-110)


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Date: Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022
Matchup: AFC North
Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Time-TV: Amazon Prime TV, 8:15 p.m. ET


Pittsburgh was the heaviest moneyline-underdog to pull off an upset in Week 1, as the Steelers cashed +240 ML tickets with a stunning 23-20 OT road victory over Cincinnati in their season opener, however, things will be much tougher without the presence of their top defensive player moving forward, as TJ Watt suffered a pectoral injury and officially got moved to IR prior to last week's contest.

The Steelers finished second in the AFC North with a record of 9-7-1 last season, which narrowly edged a handful of squads for the final playoff spot in the conference. However, the Big Ben era in Pittsburgh inevitably came to a screeching halt with a blowout loss to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs (L, 42-21).

It shouldn’t be terribly difficult to match the Steelers’ offensive production from their recent campaigns though, highlighted by Pittsburgh ranking 21st in scoring and 28th in yards per play last season (20.2 PPG, 4.8 YPP); with four of their nine wins coming in matchups they scored 20 PTS or less in.

The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Browns and Steelers. (Getty Images)


The Browns were swarmed by drama all offseason, as Cleveland parted ways with Baker Mayfield to make room for three-time Pro Bowler Deshaun Watson under center, who’ serving an 11-game suspension to open the season, in turn, delegating the Browns’ QB duties to Jacoby Brissett.

Brissett hasn’t exactly set the world on fire thus far, however, he’s not a terrible downgrade from Mayfield’s final campaign in Cleveland (61% CMP, 17-13 TD-INT), considering Brissett has completed 66% of his passes for 188 YPG with a 2-1 TD-INT ratio across the first two weeks of the season.  However, the Browns also rushed for 180 YPG across those contests, and we’ll probably see them lean on Brissett more against a tough Steelers’ defensive front.


  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Pittsburgh's last five games.
  • The Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Cleveland.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Cleveland's last nine games.
  • The Steelers are 15-4-1 SU in their last 20 games against Cleveland.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Pittsburgh's last seven road games.
  • The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Browns and Steelers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine matchups between the Browns and Steelers in Cleveland.
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