Diontae Johnson has been one of the most underrated receivers in football over these last couple season. Despite playing with the likes of Big Ben and Mitch Trubisky, he has still excelled in both role and production. The biggest thing people thought would decline this season would be his target share, the thinking that Trubisky would spread the ball around more. This hasn’t been the case, with Diontae Johnson joining Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown as the only WR’s with 30+% target shares through both weeks of the season.
He went over 5.5 receptions in both games to start the season despite an unexciting offense that hasn’t cleared 200 passing yards yet. The 26 year old wideout has seen double dig in targets in both games this season, and 13 + 15 targets last season vs the Steelers. Additionally, Mitch is sitting at 5.2 YPA, meaning he’s really not moving the ball down the field much. This helps with Diontae (9.4 ADOT) who’s running mostly quicker/intermediate routes right now. Yards was definitely interesting, with the Browns secondary allowing some big plays recently, but I’m going to trust the No. 1 to keep commanding that volume.
The biggest problem with this bet is the general lack of offense in this game. With Trubisky and Brissett and quarterback, it’s very possible teams are going to be returning punts much more than scoring touchdowns. The good news is that we saw Diontae cash last season despite equally low totals, and Najee Harris can only work so much, especially with that foot injury. If Mitch doesn’t win this game for the Steelers, he might not have another chance, I expect the No. 1 target to stay involved in this one.
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