Last Updated Sep 30, 2022, 10:47 PM

Week 3 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 3 of the NFL for Sunday, September 25. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

NFL Week 3 Best Prop Bets

  • Derek Carr (LVR) Over 1.5 TDs
  • Logan Thomas (WAS) Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Derek Carr (LVR) Over 1.5 TDs

Last week I absolutely loved this number, but the price was -190. This week, it surprisingly opened at -125, and has since moved to -115. While I like to trust my own numbers and instructs, it is interesting to see this line move the opposite way I had expected. The Raiders have played on there lower range of expected outcomes in the first two games, I think we see an improved offensive performance. Both of these teams are in must win game situations, we could see the scoreboard light up a bit. 

So far Carr is 2/2 on this number, cashing easily against a tough Chargers defense, and in the first half vs the Cardinals. Additionally the Titans have allowed this in both games, giving up two to Daniel Jones (with Saquon going for 160) and four to Josh Allen in a blowout. You don’t trade for one of the best redzone receivers in the game if you don’t plan on using him. The good news is they actually have, seeing a 20% redzone passing increase since last year. The personal just makes so much sense, Adams, Renfrow, and Waller is one of the most dangerous opponents in football. I’m expecting the Raiders A-game, and at least two touchdowns vs the Titans on Sunday. 

Logan Thomas (WAS) Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Considering I was expecting a line in the higher thirties, I’ll definitely take advantage of some value on Fanduel. So far this season, Thomas is 2/2 on this number, recording 82 yards on 11 targets over his first two games. With Samuel, McLaurin, Dotson, Gibson, and McKissic all capable pass catchers, Thomas should get multiple favorable matchups in an offense that has been throwing the ball a lot. Thomas is currently fourth in TE air yards this season, despite playing a much lower snap count than Kelce and Andrew. 

Additionally, I think the game script really plays into this one. The eagles offense has been awesome so far this season, the the Washington defense has looked weak against Jacksonville and Detroit. I’m expecting the Eagles to score 28+ points in this game, forcing Washington to stick to there pass heavy gameplay. We saw Hockenson and Irv Smith Jr both already cash this number vs Philly. While this may be garage time cash, I still have confidence Thomas clears this very low 30 number. 

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