Last Updated Oct 04, 2022, 6:01 PM

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks, Predictions, Odds

The fourth Sunday of regular season NFL action will conclude with a heavyweight non-conference clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coverage begins from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PREDICTION

The Buccaneers’ offense has been very quiet to open the season, as Tom Brady and co. averaged just 17 PPG on 297 YPG across their first three matchups against the Cowboys, Saints, and Packers. However, their defense has absolutely dominated thus far, as the Bucs’ surrendered 14 PTS or less in all three of those contests (9 PPG), leading to their modest 2-1 record.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, looked like the same ole’ Chiefs in their first three matchups, as Kansas City’s offense lit up the scoreboard for 35.5 PPG on 404 YPG in victories over the Cardinals and Chargers to open the season, and then promptly imploded with a head-scratching loss to the 0-2 Colts this past Sunday (L, 20-17).

I’ll back Kansas City here, as the Bucs’ offense has scored 20 PTS or less in three straight contests to open the year, and while it’s not fair to expect that trend to continue forever, it certainly doesn’t bode well heading into a matchup against a Chiefs squad that’s scored 27+ PTS in two-of three games to start this season (29.3 PPG), and scored 28+ PTS in 12-of-17 games last season (28.2 PPG).

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20
Best Bet: Chiefs ML (-110)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING ODDS

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022
Matchup: AFC West vs. NFC South
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Chiefs earned the second seed in the AFC with a record of 12-5 last season and came very close to making their third straight Super Bowl appearance, as Kansas City went to halftime of last year’s conference championship game with a 21-10 lead over the Bengals, but Cincy outscored them 14-3 in the second half and they eventually lost the contest in overtime (L, 27-24).

Kansas City’s offense was supposed to take a considerable step back following the offseason departure of All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill. However, the Chiefs looked like they never missed a beat in their first two contests of the season (29.3 PPG, 374 YPG), and this Kansas City squad under Andy Reid has become notorious for falling asleep at the wheel in regular season affairs, so last week’s 17-point performance doesn’t come as a total surprise. I think they’ll bounce back here.

The Buccaneers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 home games. (Getty Images)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers won the NFC South with a record of 13-4 last season, which finished right behind Green Bay for the top spot in the conference, marking Tampa Bay’s first division title since 2007 under head coach Jon Gruden and QB Jeff Garcia. However, the Bucs’ postseason journey came to a screeching halt with a 30-27 loss to the Rams in the Divisional Round.

The Bucs ultimately came up short last postseason, but make no mistake, this is still one of the most dangerous squads in the league at full strength, and they deservedly boast the fourth-best title odds after finishing top seven in scoring on both sides of the ball last year. Tampa just needs to get healthy first, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING TRENDS

  • The total has gone OVER in eight of Kansas City's last 11 games.
  • The Bucs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Chiefs are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Tampa Bay's last five games.
  • The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven matchups against Tampa Bay.
  • The Bucs are 11-3 SU in their last 14 home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Kansas City's last six road games.
  • The Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against Kansas City.
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