Last Updated Oct 07, 2022, 10:14 AM

Week 4 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 4 of the NFL for Sunday, October 2nd. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bets

  • Mack Hollins (LVR) Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115)
  • Khalil Herbert (CHI) Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
  • Khalil Herbert (CHI) 59.5 Rushing Yards + Zach Ertz Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Mack Hollins (LVR) Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards

I’m seeing a lot of hate against Mack Hollins on my timeline, and I dont think it's deserved. Pointing out that his production spike came without Renfrow is important information, but I don't think it tells the full story. Hollins didn't magically appear last week, he’s run 115 routes this season, which is 15th in the NFL next to guys like Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton. I’m not saying it's likely a 29 year old breakout is likely, but this team was already a highly condensed offense, and it just got worse. Last week they were just down Hunter Renfrow, now they're also down Foster Moreau, who are 4th and 5th in targets for this team.

Additionally I also like his downfield usage. Hollins currently sits at a 13.1 ADOT (average depth of target) which has him tied with Gabriel Davis and Mike Evans. Hollins is huge standing at 6’6, it's probably easier to confuse him with Darren Waller then Davante Adams. He’s a team captain on this Raiders team for a reason, Carr showed his comfortability throwing to him in the 4th quarter against the Titans last week. He’s going against a tough Broncos defense, but Davante Adams should draw the tougher assignment going against Patrick Surtain. Yes, Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in football, and will surely be more involved this week. That being said, I also genuinely believe that Surtain is one of the best corners in the NFL, and I don't think that price is baked in yet. All we need is one down the field play in a highly condensed offense here.

Khalil Herbert (CHI) Over 75.5 Rushing Yards

Khalil Herbert was drafted as one of the first handcuffs off the board in all of fantasy football for a reason. After David Montgomery went down with injury last week, Herbert lit up the scoreboard going 20-157 with 2 touchdowns in their win against the Texans. Herbert's YPA jumps off the page at 7.3 (2nd in NFL), and you can see he was impressive despite limited volume going 9-45 and 4-38 previously. Herbert currently ranks 4th in the NFL in YAC/A (yards after contact per attempt) at 4.2, sitting behind Barkley, Jones, and Williams.

When we zoom in on just his performance last week, 105 of his 157 yards were after contact, and he finished the week tied for first in missed tackles and 3rd in broken tackles. Herbert now takes his talents to a Giants defense who has allowed back-to-back 100 yard rushers and 5.3 YPC this season. The Bears average 34.7 rush attempts per game (2nd) and this should be a neutral game script (although they did not stop running the ball down multiple scores vs Green Bay).

Zach Ertz Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

Zach Ertz has been profitable for me this season, and I’m going back to the well. I hate playing props against Carolina, but this insanely low number makes up for the slow pace. While Rondale Moore should be making his debut (most likely in limited fashion), AJ Green has now been ruled out, and Marquise Brown was a midweek addition to the injury report, which is never good. Zach Ertz is currently 2nd in TE routes with 129, putting him in 2nd among all TE’s. He’s seen 22 targets over his last two games, and should very easily be able to eclipse this number.

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