Last Updated Oct 22, 2022, 9:39 AM
Week 6 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds
Prop Betting Expert
Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 6 of the NFL for Sunday, October 16th. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!
NFL Week 6 Best Prop Bets
- Josh Allen (BUF) Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-145)
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Josh Allen (BUF) Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-145)
Earlier today, we were discussing Josh Allen rushing touchdown on Pass the Prop, when his 11 rush attempts in back-to-back games vs Kansas City was brought up. I figured the line would be closer to 8.5, and I immediately searched it up and found it was 7.5 for -110. While the odds have gotten worse, for good reason, this line still feels small compared to what I’m expecting in this potential shootout. Allen has played two competitive games this season, against the Dolphins and Ravens, and recorded 8 and 11 rushing attempts.
I like this prop for a lot of the same reasons I like Devin Singletary receiving yards. Josh Allen has seen more cover 2 looks then any other quarterback in the NFL, and I expect that to continue against the Chiefs. Josh Allen is the best downfield passer in the NFL, and Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis complement that skill set perfectly. We’ve seen more and more teams beg Allen to just take the shorter throws, and he’s been improving on that this season. Additionally, the Chiefs are starting a group of rookie corners on the outside, with even more incentive to have those safeties back in order to limit big plays.
While rushing yards is tempting, attempts offer so much security. Without a true goal-line back, it's possible Josh Allen could get anywhere from 2-3 red zone carries, in a game with the highest total on the slate. We also get opportunities for the 6’5 quarterback to take advantage of his size on 3rd/4th and short with quarterback sneaks.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
While I haven't been able to get much on my #1 overall fantasy receiver this season, this seems like a good time to correct that. Jefferson has covered this number in 3 of 5 games this season, with his misses coming against Darious Slay and Jeffery Okudah shadow coverage. This week, he gets a matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who have been a major pass funnel this season. While the name Xavien Howard is scary on paper, he’s been playing through injury most of the season, only looking about 60% healthy when he’s out there.
Jefferson currently possesses an elite 30.2% target share, with Kirk Cousins coming off of one of his best games as a Viking. Jefferson covered this number in the first half last week, with 138 receiving yards, and should come out strong once again. While the Dolphins are throwing out there third string quarterback, it does seem like they should be able to keep this game relavilityl close, with the spread set at just 3 points right now.His 2.68 yards per route run currently has him at 4th in the NFL, and a matchup against a man heavy Dolphins team might make that number even better. Jefferson has seen increases in both targets and yards per route run in his career vs man coverage. He also has a 40% air yards share for the Vikings, despite having a career low 8.5 ADOT of target this season. This new Vikings system is deploying him all over the place, and I expect them to continue to hunt mismatches against the Dolphins.