Last Updated Oct 23, 2022, 7:58 PM

SNF Steelers vs. Dolphins Player Prop Best Bet

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top play in Sunday night's primetime matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

Steelers vs. Dolphins Player Prop Pick

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA) Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Tua Tagovailoa is back! After a couple concussion scares, the Dolphins finally get their former first round pick back in action. While the backups have done a serviceable job, the constant injuries between Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater have made it hard for this team's offence to constantly move the ball down the field. The Steelers will also be getting their starting quarterback back, with Kenny Pickett coming in after clearing concussion protocol. While the Mitch Trubisky experience was fun, it's good to see the rookie get a shot to prove himself. The Steelers really have no upside with Mitch at quarterback. Let's see what Pickett can do.

Honestly the toughest part about this one was deciding which Dolphins receiver to target. Both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are very good pass catchers, and Tagovailoa should give them both the consistency they need to succeed. So far this season, Waddle has been dealing with a bit of a lingering shoulder injury, but should continue to play through it and see high volume. Waddle currently has an 11.0 ADOT and 23% target share, while Hill has a 10.8 ADOT with a 30% target share. With Tua, and before the shoulder injury, those numbers were practically even but Hill has pulled away in recent weeks.

While Pittsburgh's defense came to play last week against a sad looking Tom Brady, they have allowed the most receptions to WR’s in football. The Steelers also currently rank 29th in pressure rate, and while the Dolphins O-line is banged up, they should be able to give Tua enough time to throw. DVOA has the Steelers secondary bottom tier in most categories, and that definitely checks out with all the injuries they’ve faced. Hill just feels like the safer bet, especially with Waddle still questionable with the shoulder. Hill has one of the most dynamic route tree’s in the NFL, seeing an insane amount of targets all over the field.

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