Last Updated Nov 04, 2022, 9:05 PM
Week 8 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds
Prop Betting Expert
Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 8 of the NFL for Sunday, October 30th. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!
NFL Week 8 Best Prop Bets
- Chris Olave (NO) Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-114)
- Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-114)
Chris Olave (NO) Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-114)
This prop reminds me alot of last season, where deep-threats like Marquise Brown were constantly underpriced because their total receiving yards are lower. Guys like Deandre Hopkins and Cooper Kupp will always have high longest reception props, because they will generally have more opportunities, but realistically guys like Olave who run the deepest routes should probably be on that level. When looking through a lot of the major stats, you definitely wouldn't assume that Olave is a rookie, but he's quickly become a center part of this offense.
He’s gone over this number in 4 of 6 games this season, which is honestly pretty impressive given the quarterback uncertainty and lack of cohesion in this offense. Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas will both miss this week, meaning there will be plenty of opportunity of the Saints #1 receiver. Olave has one of the most insane ADOT to Target Share combos I've seen of any player, with a 16.7 ADOT and a 26.6% target share. He is essentially getting the same % of targets as Stefon Diggs, but is constantly running these downfield routes.
Olave leads the league in air yards and deep targets, and with the way this defense is performing he should continue to get that kind of volume. The Saints might be scary in name, but this defense has been absolutely awful this season, and should struggle against the Raiders offense which has been trending upwards. Additionally the Raiders are a pass funnel defense, currently performing well against the Run but ranking bottom 5 against the pass in most metrics. Andy Dalton has been decently reliable and I expect them to keep taking shots down the field with Olave.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-114)
Picking between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is always an extremely tough thing to do, but I think the discrepancy between their prices is a bit too high here today. Waddle and Tyreek Hill combine for the most explosive players out of any receiver duo in the league, and I expect them both two have good performances against the Lions defense. The hardest part for me was honestly decking between receiving yards and longest reception. Let's talk a look at how Waddle has done with a healthy Tua so far this season -
- Week 1 - 69 Yards
- Week 2 - 171 Yards
- Week 3 - 104 Yards
- Week 7 - 88 Yards
He ended up cashing his longest reception in each of those two games. Additionally, In two of those four games, he led the team in receiving, seeing a similar target share to Tyreek Hill. When Tua is under center, I really think its a 1A/1B situation rather than a clear #1 and #2 receiver. While his ADOT is only 11.1 this season, he is seeing a ton of deep passes with a couple short routes/screens mixed in, mostly working on the outside. Both of these receivers should eat against a very porous Lions defense.
The other positive here is that the Lions are actually at home, meaning they will finally be able to stay competitive. The Lions offense has absolutely sucked on the road this season, but they get reinforcements with D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St Brown both back and healthy. They should be able to keep this game close enough where the Dolphins offense will have plenty of time to put in work.