Last Updated Nov 12, 2022, 7:22 PM
Week 9 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds
Prop Betting Expert
Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 9 of the NFL for Sunday, November 6th. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!
NFL Week 9 Best Prop Bets
- Evan Engram (NYG) Over 3.5 Receptions + Bills ML (-114)
- DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) Over 6.5 Receptions (-132)
Evan Engram (NYG) Over 3.5 Receptions + Bills ML (-114)
As someone who joined in on the Evan Engram disrespect, it looks like he’s back and playing very well. He’s coming off one of his most involved weeks of the season, running a route on 94% of dropbacks, leading the team in target share (21%), putting up a solid 4-55-1 performance. Engram also has one of my favorite traits when betting on tight ends, he can't block. Ever since being drafted by the Giants, Engram has essentially played as a slot receiver, and that role continued this year with the Jaguars. Over the last 4 weeks Engram rates out 3rd in TE usage, behind just Kelce and Ertz, averaging 5 catches for 50+ yards.
One of the other reasons I like this prop is because I think Jacksonville will be trailing in this one, despite a very close spread. Despite finding ways to mess games up towards the end, the Raiders have been playing improved football over the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been playing in alot of low scoring games, but they have also been playing against tons of mediocre quarterbacks. While Derek Carr isn't elite, this run game is looking good and I’m expecting a good performance from the Raiders offense. This game script would force the Jaguars in a more pass heavy game script, with less run on Etienne and more opportunities for the outside receivers. The Jags have 6 losses this season, he has 4+ catches in 5 of those 6. Engram is a guy I’m playing a lot in DFS this week also, considering the Raiders have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to TE’s.
I rarely play heavy juice, and considering this is priced at -165 I decided to pair it up with the Bills moneyline. I was actually very close to just laying the price, but man I have a hard time seeing the Jets be competitive here. Zach Wilson has legitimately been awful this season, and while the Jets defense has been great, they now get there toughest task in the #1 ranked offense in the NFL.
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) Over 6.5 Receptions (-132)
I’ve talked about Hopkins at length over the past couple weeks, and enjoy targeting this spot here. Deciding between yards and receptions was tough, considering I have him projected to go over each, but I do think catches are a little bit safer. I rarely play “ladder plays” in the NFL, but I will definitely be sprinkling on some alt lines, probably up to 130 receiving yards. While the last Seahawks vs Cardinals matchup wasn't great, I think we get more offense this time around.
How has Deandre Hopkins been since returning back from suspension? That sounds like a question asked by someone living under a rock, because he’s been phenomenal. Hopkins has 22 catches, on 27 targets, for 262 receiving yards and a touchdown leading the Cardindinals by a lot. While it's only a two game sample size, Hopkins posses a 37.5% target share (which is first in the NFL) and a 3.64 yards per route run, which would be second behind just Tyreek Hill. Hopkins will likely continue to see elite usage in this offense, and he now finds himself in an exploitable matchup in Seattle.
While I normally don't pay much attention to those narrative trends about team performance with vs without one player, Hopkins effect on this Cardinals team is noticeable to anyone with working eyes. As someone who bet Rondale Moore the week Hopkins came back, it was clear that Hopkins was the first read on almost every single play, and that continued last week. While the Cardinals may be getting some reinforcements in the run game, they have struggled to established the run this season and I expect Kyler to need to do some heavy lifting.