Latvia vs. USA Hockey Odds: Market Sentiment for the Olympic Opener

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The international hockey spotlight shifts to Milan as the 2026 Winter Olympics begin, and few matchups have captured the attention of prediction market users quite like the Group C opener between Latvia and the United States. For traders monitoring Latvia vs. USA Hockey Odds, the current market sentiment is a study in contrasting styles: the overwhelming star power of an NHL-laden American roster versus the cohesive, "giant-killer" reputation of a Latvian squad that has historically thrived as an underdog.

As the puck drops at the Santagiulia Arena, Kalshi traders are actively managing Yes/No positions on the game's outcome. While the United States enters as a significant favorite, the memory of Latvia's historic bronze-medal victory over the Americans in 2023 remains a primary data point for those looking to find value in the price fluctuations of these prediction markets.

If you are looking to capitalize on your international hockey knowledge, trading on Kalshi offers a direct way to engage with the tournament. New traders can often utilize a kalshi promo code to access specialized incentives when opening their first positions on the Olympic games. Click on the module below to get started.

Updated on 2/12/26

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Market Breakdown: Navigating Olympic Contracts

On Kalshi, participants trade on the outcome of the match using binary contracts. Each contract settles at $1.00 if the chosen outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not. The trading price, for example, $0.85 for a USA victory, represents an implied probability of 85% for that result.

For traders accustomed to traditional sports formats, utilizing a prediction market odds converter is highly recommended to bridge the gap between contract pricing and probability. This tool allows you to quickly assess whether the market has overvalued a favorite or if the "underdog moxie" of a team like Latvia is being underestimated in the current contract spread.

Context & Latest News

The 2026 edition of Team USA is arguably its most talented in decades, featuring a "best-on-best" roster following the return of NHL participation. However, Latvia’s consistency in international play makes this a volatile market for traders.

• Team USA’s Firepower: Led by captain Auston Matthews and alternate captains Matthew Tkachuk and Charlie McAvoy, the U.S. roster is built for speed and skill. Jack Eichel and the Hughes brothers (Quinn and Jack) provide a level of offensive depth that few nations can match.
• The Latvian Wall: Latvia’s hopes rest largely on goaltending. Elvis Merzļikins (Columbus Blue Jackets) and Artūrs Šilovs (Pittsburgh Penguins) give Latvia a legitimate chance to keep games close. Merzļikins recently stated his goal is to prove Latvia’s "underdog moxie" can match any superpower on the big stage.
• Recent Form: While the U.S. dominated recent exhibitions, Latvia secured their Olympic spot with a flawless qualifying run in Riga. However, they faced struggles at the 2025 World Championships, emphasizing the gap they must close against elite NHL talent.

Historical Context: The Last Word

Historically, this matchup has provided some of the most dramatic shifts in prediction markets. While the U.S. won their most recent meeting 6-3 at the 2024 World Championships, it was Latvia’s 4-3 overtime victory in the 2023 Bronze Medal game that redefined their status on the world stage.

In the best prediction markets, the "USA vs. the Field" narrative often drives early volume, but savvy traders frequently look at historical puck-line movements. Since the 1980 "Miracle on Ice," the U.S. has chased another gold medal, and their ability to handle high-pressure openers like this one will dictate market confidence for the remainder of the Group C round-robin.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson