Red Wings vs. Lightning Predictions, Odds, Preview

3 minute read

Feb. 3, 2021

By Joe Williams

VegasInsider.com

The Detroit Red Wings (2-6-2) hit the road for the start of a six-game road trip, starting with the first of two games against the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning (5-1-1) on Wednesday afternoon.

These teams will meet eight times this season, which is great news for the Lightning. They have won 22 of the past 26 meetings in this series, and 21 of the previous 27 at Amalie Arena in Tampa. The favorite is a whopping 21-5 in the past 26 battles, too. The home team has won 18 of the previous 25, or a winning percentage of 72.

The Red Wings likely will have Thomas Greiss in between the pipes again. He is 0-5-2 overall, but he has a respectable 3.03 goals-against average and .897 save percentage. Greiss hasn't been great, but he hasn't been god awful, and gives Detroit stability in net. In fact, he has allowed three or fewer goals in all six of his starts to date. Unfortunately for him, the Detroit offense has provided eight total goals in his six starts, or an average of just 1.33 per game. That's not going to get you to pile up the wins.

Red Wings vs. Lightning Betting Resources

Matchup: Central Division
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: Amalie Arena
Location: Tampa, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021
Time: 5:35 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All
Bet in Michigan: Available Sportsbooks

Betting Odds – Red Wings vs. Lightning

Line Movements

Subject to Change

Money-Line: Tampa Bay -330 Detroit +270
Puck-Line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-130), Detroit +1.5 (+110)
Total: 5.5 Over (-120) Under (+100)

The Lightning are fresh off a sweep of the Predators as Tampa Bay welcomes in Detroit. (AP)

Red Wings vs. Lightning Current Form-Last Game

The Red Wings were swept at home in a pair of 3-2 decisions against Tampa's Sunshine State rivals, the Florida Panthers. Greiss started both of those games, and he has started four in a row, as primary backup Jonathan Bernier has been on the shelf due to an upper-body injury.

Tyler Bertuzzi is a big part of the Detroit offense, but he is a question mark due to an upper-body injury which shelved him for Sunday's game. Robby Fabbri (COVID-19) was able to practice Tuesday, as he emerges from COVID protocol. If he can rejoin the lineup, that would be a nice add for the Wings if Bertuzzi cannot go.

The Red Wings slink in on a six-game skid (0-4-2), last tasting victory on Jan. 19 against Columbus behind Bernier. In fact, Bernier has been in between the pipes for each of their two wins on the young season.

The Lightning bounced back from a 1-0 road loss in OT to the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 28, sweeping the visiting Nashville Predators Jan. 30-Feb. 1. They outscored the Preds 9-5, including a dominant 5-2 win behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is in top form as usual.

Red Wings vs. Lightning Head-to-Head

Mar. 8, 2020 - Red Wings 5 vs. Lightning 4 (OT), Detroit +235, Over 5.5
Dec. 29, 2019 - Lightning 2 vs. Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay -400, Under 6.5

(SU-Straight Up, OU - Over-Under)

Detroit Red Wings Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 2-8 SU, 3-7 O/U
Road: 0-4 SU, 2-2 O/U

The Red Wings are not a terrible hockey team, as they have been in games against some very good teams this season. It all just seems to go south at the end, as they're young, and don't know how to finish yet. They should show improvement as the season goes on.But for now, they haven't won consecutive games since March 6-8 right before the NHL paused the season. In those two games, they beat the Chicago Blackhawks and, yes, the Lightning. Detroit cashed at +235 at Little Caesars Arena that evening in a 5-4 shootout victory. To be fair, backup Curtis McElhinney was in the blue ice, not Vasilevskiy, which is a giant difference.

The Lightning actually started McElhinney in both meetings last season, as they escaped with a 2-1 win in the meeting in Central Florida on Dec. 29, 2019.

The Red Wings are just 10-43 across their past 53 as road underdogs, and 27-72 in the past 99 tries against teams with a winning overall record, but for some reason they play Tampa tough.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 5-2 SU, 4-3 O/U
Home: 4-0 SU, 3-1 O/U

The Lightning offense seems to get all of the headlines, and they are a respectable 10th in the NHL with 3.4 goals per game. However, the defense, led by Victor Hedman, have helped Vasilevskiy and the Lightning keep the opponent down. They have allowed just 2.3 goals per game, good for fifth in the league.

The champs have actually been just so-so on special teams. They rank 14th in both the power play (24.0 percent), and the penalty kill (80.0 percent). Hedman isn't just about the defense, though, as he actually leads the team with 23 shots on goal, while his partner in crime Mikhail Sergachev leads in plus/minus at plus-5. Steven Stamkos is back and healthy, and he leads the team with nine points. That helps cushion the blow of Nikita Kucherov (hip) being out for the season.

The Lightning have won 15 of their past 20, or a 75-percent clip, against teams with a losing overall record. And they're a rather impressive 37-14 in the past 51 when they are playing on a day of rest.