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Last Updated Jun 25, 2022, 09:08 AM

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena Wednesday night for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, a best-of-seven series. The Avalanche lead the series 2-1. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ABC/ESPN+.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 4, Avalanche 3

Best Bet

Lightning -105
Over 6 (-103)

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COLORADO AVALANCHE vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PREDICTIONS

The Avalanche opened Game 3 with a power-play goal from Gabriel Landeskog, and it appeared Colorado was going to carry over its momentum from a 7-0 Game 2 whitewashing to really put Tampa Bay against the ropes. However, Anthony Cirelli had a game-leveling goal at 13:03 of the first period, and Ondrej Palat registered a goal at 14:54 to get the home crowd off of its hands and onto its feet.

The second period started quickly for the Lightning, as Nick Paul struck for a goal with the help of Ross Colton, making it 3-1, and that's the goal which stood up as the game winner. Landeskog picked up yet another power-play goal to make it 3-2, but that's as close as Colorado would get.

Steven Stamkos, Pat Maroon and Corey Perry notched goals to close out the second period to make it 6-2, and that's how the game ended. Game, set and match for the Lightning thanks to Stammer, Big Rig and Scorey Perry.

Andrei Vasilevskiy obviously was the beneficiary of all of the offensive support, and he stopped 37 of the 39 shots he faced for what was easily his best performance of the series. Colorado didn't get to him for an even-strength or shorthanded goal, and it was only Landeskog able to solve him on the man advantage (x2).

Looking ahead to Game 4, as mentioned previously, I have written off the Lightning after going down 5-0 in Game 1 to Toronto in the first round. I didn't think much of them down 3-2 against the Leafs in that same series. I changed my tune after the Lightning blanked the high-octane Florida Panthers, yet bearish on the Lightning once they went down 0-2 to the New York Rangers. I tried to remember that, and picked them in Game 3, and it paid off. I'll take the Lightning again in Game 4, forcing this back to Colorado all leveled 2-2, playing for Lord Stanley's chalice in what will essentially be a best-of-three series the rest of the way.

COLORADO AVALANCHE vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ODDS

Avalanche -110
Lightning -105
Avalanche -1.5 (+225)
Lightning +1.5 (-263)
Over 6 (-103)
Under 6.5 (-143)

More Odds | Futures Odds

COLORADO AVALANCHE vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Wednesday, June 22, 2022
  • Matchup: Central vs. Atlantic
  • Venue: Amalie Arena
  • Location: Tampa, Fla.
  • TV-Time: ABC/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET

COLORADO AVALANCHE BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 70-21-8
  • ATS: 48-51
  • O/U: 53-41-5

The good news is that the Avalanche are 7-1 in eight games during the playoffs. The bad news is that lone loss came in Game 3, and it was a 6-2 whitewashing in favor of the Lightning.

Colorado is still 41-19 in the past 60 games when playing on a day of rest, and 64-19 in the past 83 as a favorite. And, following a loss of three or more goals, the Avalanche have managed a 21-5 record in the past 26 such instances, with a 10-2 mark in the past 12 after allowing five or more in the previous outing.

The OVER has cashed in every game in this series, and four straight for the Avs. The OVER is also 6-2 in the team's eight games on the roads in these playoffs so far, including Game 3.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 64-29-9
  • ATS: 50-52
  • O/U: 53-47-2

The Lightning showed their championship mettle with a huge 6-2 win to make this a series, although all of those good feelings could be washed away like a Gulf of Mexico wave at Pass-a-Grille Beach if the Lightning were to lose Game 4. But Tampa Bay knows the 7-0 loss in Game 2 counts the same as a one-goal loss, and the team was prepared and ready for Game 3, putting that bad loss in the rear-view mirror.

Tampa Bay has won 11 of the past 15 games overall, while going 41-15 in the past 56 home games. The Lightning also has an impressive 9-4 mark in the past 13 games in the Stanley Cup Final.

As far as the totals are concerned, the UNDER is still 5-1 in the past six games at home for Tampa Bay, although that lone OVER was in Game 3 of this series. The UNDER has cashed in 10 of the past 14 for the Lightning, but the OVER is 3-for-3 in this series. The OVER is 4-1-1 in the past six Stanley Cup Final games for Tampa, too.

The Avalanche try to hold the Lightning back in Game 4. (Getty Images)

COLORADO AVALANCHE vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING CONCLUSION

The Avalanche still hold the advantage in this series. Colorado is up 2-1 in the series, while still maintaining home-ice advantage with two of the next four games in this series scheduled for Ball Arena in Denver. But the Lightning are experienced, and know that it has erased a 2-0 deficit in these playoffs, rattling off four straight to win. This team has won two elimination games to force a Game 7 to win on the road. And, of course, this team can also tap into previous seasons where it won the Stanley Cup twice.

Colorado is a great team, and super fast. But Tampa Bay has plenty of experience, pride and a boisterous home crowd spurring them on in Game 4. I like the Lightning to tie it up in a much closer affair than Game 3, essentially making this a best-of-three going forward.

COLORADO AVALANCHE vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING TRENDS

  • Avalanche are 57-20 in the past 77 games overall.
  • Avalanche are 23-10 in the past 33 road games.
  • Avalanche are 7-1 in the past eight road playoff games.
  • Avalanche are 41-19 in the past 60 on a day of rest.
  • Lightning are 9-3 in the past 12 Stanley Cup Final games.
  • Lightning are 41-15 in the past 56 home games.
  • OVER is 6-2 in the past eight road games for the Avalanche.
  • OVER is 10-4-1 in the past 15 vs. Eastern Conference teams for the Avs.
  • UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight on a day of rest for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 5-1 in the past six home games for the Lightning.
  • Avalanche are 4-2 in the past six meetings.
  • Favorite is 17-5 in the past 22 meetings.
  • OVER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.
  • OVER is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Tampa.
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