Aston Villa vs Tottenham Predictions, Pick

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Aston Villa, currently one of England's most in-form teams, are set to face Tottenham Hotspur, who are enduring their worst-ever Premier League campaign in the 20-team era. 

Updated on 5/16/25

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After securing their seventh win in the past eight matches, Unai Emery's side sit 6th in the table, level on points with Chelsea but trailing on goal difference (+9 to the Blues' +19).

With Tottenham focusing fully on next week's Europa League final and likely to give opportunities to their fringe players, this presents a prime opportunity for the Villans to secure victory, rack up the goals and edge closer to a historic, consecutive qualification for the Champions League.

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ANALYSIS OF THE MATCH

This match was moved to ensure that Tottenham aren’t at a disadvantage for the Europa League Final. This match means more for Aston Villa who are in the hunt for a top 5 spot. Unai Emery’s side have had a taste of Champions League football after an impressive quarter-final run this season. 

They will likely need six points from their final two Premier League games to ensure they’ll be playing in Europe's elite club competition next season. 

This game has little significance for Tottenham. The visitors are 17th in the league after a disastrous domestic campaign. European success is their only hope of salvation, so expect Ange Postecoglou to field a weakened team with the clash against Manchester United on the horizon. 

The Australian made eight changes in Tottenham’s 2-0 home defeat against Crystal Palace. Spurs’ starting eleven had an average age of 23.8 years for that one. Expect a similar team to start this one.

Villa will be relishing the prospect of taking on a rotated Tottenham team. Ollie Watkins got on the scoresheet in the 1-0 win over Bournemouth and should cause problems for Ange’s backline with Micky Van de Ven and Cristian Romero likely to be rested once again. 

Kevin Danso and Ben Davies were Spurs’ centre-back pairing against Palace, and struggled. The Eagles racked up 23 shots, accumulating an xG of 3.39. Watkins, who has 16 Premier League goals to his name this season, will fancy his chances of getting on the scoresheet.

The England forward has a point to prove. Villa’s January reinforcements in attack meant that he was benched for some big games, including both legs of the Champions League quarter-final against PSG. 

Marcus Rashford has since picked up an injury so Ollie will start this one. His intelligent movement, pace and desire to get on the scoresheet will cause huge problems for Tottenham’s defense.

ASTON VILLA ANALYSIS AND FORM

Back-to-back 1-0 victories for Aston Villa keep the Champions League dream a distinct possibility with results falling favourably elsewhere. Now level with Chelsea (5th) on 63 points, Villa must win their remaining two games. Luckily for them, both Tottenham and Manchester United have European away days scheduled, which might divert Premier League focus.

Unai Emery's side must focus on the task at hand. If the 2.40 points per game average over their last ten games is anything to go by, Villa are on the right track. 

No team has won more matches (8) or returned more points (24) in the previous ten games than Aston Villa. Only Manchester City (60%) boasts a superior clean sheet strike rate than Friday night's hosts (50%) from ten games.

The attacking reinforcements in January of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio but Villa deserve credit for their performances at the other end, too. 0-1 vs Bournemouth, 0-3 vs Brighton and 0-1 vs Brentford - all away from home, conceding less than 1.0 xGA in each.

Let's assume Villa continue with recent positive defensive trends and unlock the likes of Ollie Watkins in forward areas, who is buoyantly fresh from becoming Villa's leading all-time Premier League goalscorer (75). Do that, and the home side, backed by a packed Villa Park, should be able to harness the differing levels of motivation between themselves and Tottenham towards a positive result.

TOTTENHAM ANALYSIS AND FORM

With players returning from injury in the defensive third of the pitch, Spurs have shipped 1.0 xGA in just two of eight recent matches, including visits to Frankfurt (0.91), West Ham (0.84), Bodo Glimt (0.43) and Nottingham Forest at home (0.48). 

In a season devoid of many positives (17th) away from Spurs' Europa League, perhaps Ange Postecoglou can take solace in those underlying numbers. However, over the past five games, Tottenham sits 20th in the Premier League's form table and have conceded the most goals (14).

Tottenham’s focus could well be on next Wednesday’s Europa League final. Will Ange Postecoglou play his best available squad after recent comments suggesting he'll wrap his players in cotton wool during the ten days before kick-off in Bilbao? How do the players approach Friday night - is it as full-throttle as usual? Or will they cautiously navigate the 90 minutes vs Aston Villa and ensure they're available for the biggest game of some of their careers?

HEAD TO HEAD ANALYSIS

Aston Villa and Tottenham have met twice already this season including an FA Cup 4th Round back in February. Aston Villa ran out winners at Villa Park on that day, with an injury-time Mathys Tel consolation strike making the final scoreline much easier on the eye. 

That's not to say Tottenham didn't deserve a goal. Spurs recorded three big chances to Villa's three, with Martinez having to make four saves as Antonin Kinsky registered five.

The FA Cup meeting was a fixture played without Solanke, Richarlison, Maddison, Johnson, Romero, Udogie, Vicario, Dragusin, van de Ven Odobert and Werner for Spurs - almost a starting eleven's worth of players typically in and around the manager's plans.

For Aston Villa, it was a similar story in defence as Torres, Cash, Mings, and Disasi missed the game, prompting severe selection headaches at the back for Unai Emery.

Earlier in the season, Spurs had the convincing upper hand (4-1) in North London. Tottenham ran riot in the second half, registering 2.23xG and four goals in response to Morgan Rogers' first-half opener. 

Interestingly, each of the previous five meetings between the clubs has overseen three or more goals, as a couple of eye-watering scorelines blessed those Spurs fans in attendance for two un(four)gettable fixtures: 2-1, 4-1, 0-4, 1-2 and 2-1.

TEAM NEWS AND PREDICTED LINEUPS

Aston Villa predicted starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Torres, Konsa, Maatsen; Kamara, Onana; McGinn, Asensio, Rogers; Watkins

Tottenham predicted starting lineup:
Vicario; Porro, Spence, Danso, Davies; Gray, Sarr, Richarlison; Odobert, Moore, Tel

The Tottenham line-up is the big talking point on Friday night, with comments from Ange Postecoglou suggesting he will rest and rotate ahead of the Europa League final. Assuming the first and second legs of the Europa League semi-final against Spurs is Ange's go-to strongest starting eleven, it gives us an idea of who might get the call-up for Villa Park on Friday night.

Mathys Tel and Wilson Odobert might enter the manager's plans to replace Dominic Solanke and Brennan Johnson, whilst Dejan Kulusevski vacated Spurs' most recent fixture against Crystal Palace after just 19 minutes and will likely not be risked. 

Kevin Danso, Ben Davies and Djed Spence all started versus Crystal Palace last time out and should deputise for Cristian Romero, Micky van der Ven and Destiny Udogie in Spurs' backline.

For Aston Villa, it's business as usual. Jacob Ramsey's red card against Bournemouth sees him miss out through suspension. Marcus Rashford and Youri Tielemans failed to make the Cherries fixture on the weekend and again enter the week as doubts. 

Ollie Watkins will continue to lead the line in the absence of Rashford. Unai Emery's starting eleven could resemble what graced the pitch versus Bournemouth.

MANAGER QUOTES/OTHER ANALYSIS

Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou admitted he wants to offer his key players as much rest as possible ahead of the Europa League final in Bilbao.

“I’ll put them in cotton wool for the next 10 days”, said the manager at the press conference after their 2-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace last Sunday.

Dejan Kuluseveski was forced off with a knee injury after 18 in Spurs’ last game, and will not play. He will also miss the Europa League final.

“He was still sore this morning with his knee, it looks like a knock at this stage and we’re going to let it settle for 24 hours”, added Postecoglu.

Best Bet: Aston Villa -1.5 (+101)

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson