Atlético Madrid vs Botafogo Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

Atlético Madrid will face Botafogo on Monday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match action from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

The situation in Group B is straightforward. Atlético Madrid, the -164 favorites (62% implied win probability), must defeat Botafogo by at least three goals if Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) is expected to win against the Seattle Sounders in their final match.

If both PSG and Atlético win, there will be a three-way tie with each team on six points, and Goal Difference will determine the ranking. Given that PSG head coach Luis Enrique has described Botafogo as the best defensive team they have encountered this season, whether domestically or in the Champions League, can we expect Diego Simeone’s Atlético to secure a decisive victory?

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Analysis of the Match

Not many would have anticipated Botafogo qualifying for the knockouts before PSG and Atlético Madrid, and one of Europe’s giant clubs will fail to qualify for the latter stages. 

And so Atlético Madrid will be throwing everything they have at Botafogo - and will hope that the Brazilians will make a few changes ahead of this tie - a sentence not many would have expected to read before the tournament began.

But clearly, the gap between Europe and Brazil isn’t as big as people presumed, and Diego Simeone has to either beat Botafogo by three clear goals or hope Seattle Sounders get a result against PSG. It’s not gone to plan so far.

With a goal difference to chase, Atlético Madrid will need to approach the match the same as they did against the Sounders. A 3-1 win relieved some of the pressure, although PSG’s defeat firmly put that back on the Spaniards.

And although we’ve now witnessed two different performances from Atlético, one theme has remained: goals. Simeone’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding five goals across two matches, although they got their act together in round two.

Botafogo will prove to be a more difficult side to break down, but it will be interesting to see what they have left in the tank after their win against PSG. They are, however, accustomed to playing every 3-4 days domestically and proved a threat on the counter.

Atlético Madrid Analysis and Form

While Atlético Madrid’s forwards have struggled to perform at the Club World Cup, it was their midfielders who bailed them out against Seattle Sounders.

A brace from Pablo Barrios - who only scored one La Liga goal last campaign - as well as Axel Witsel - who didn’t score in 2024/25 - were crucial goals as Atlético got their first three points on the board.

Diego Simeone would have been gutted to see PSG fail to do them any favors, and now they have either to beat Botafogo by three goals or rely on the team they just beat to hold the Champions League winners. 

Does lightning strike twice? It doesn’t look likely.

What has been more concerning is that they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Atlético are a side known for stability, but they haven’t shown that in their opening two matches, and Botafogo will be hoping to be the third team in Group B to find the back of the net against the Spaniards.

Botafogo Analysis and Form

Botafogo has been excellent. They rode their luck a little against Seattle Sounders in their opening match, having raced into a 2-0 lead, but they were nothing but calm and composed vs PSG.

Luis Enrique came out and admitted that the Brazilians were the best defensive team his side has come up against all season, which is a high level of praise, and he’s not wrong.

And up top: Igor Jesus. The Brazilian is playing out of his skin in his final matches for his club before departing for Nottingham Forest, who has now scored two goals in two games at the Club World Cup.

Although Jesus has been excellent, those in behind, including Jefferson Savarino, are why they are in the top spot. There’s quality all over the pitch, and European teams have underestimated them - but now it’s time to take Botafogo - and other Brazilian clubs - very seriously going forward.

Head to Head 

This will be just the third time that Atlético Madrid has faced a non-European side in a competitive match. The second such match was their 3-1 win over Seattle Sounders on the second match day.

Not since 1974 have Los Colchoneros met a team from South America. That was against Independiente. It’s also relatively new territory for manager Diego Simeone. Despite spending six years managing in Argentina, this will be just the second match he has worked against a side from Brazil. The first was a 2006 Copa Libertadores tie with São Paulo. 

Botafogo’s first competitive match against a European club was a 1-0 win over Paris Saint-Germain. It was also the first time a South American side beat a Champions League holder (PSG) since 2012 when Corinthians stunned Chelsea in the Club World Cup final. 

They’ll be hoping to keep that good form going here. 

Team News and Predicted Lineups. 

Atlético Madrid's possible starting lineup:

Oblak; Galan, Le Normand, Gimenez, Llorente, de Paul, Koke, Barrios, Simeone, Alvarez, Sorloth.

Botafogo possible starting lineup:

Victor; Telles, Barboza, Jair, Vitinho, Rodriguez, Freitas, Gregore, Artur, Savarino, Jesus.

It’s at this stage of the tournament where Atlético Madrid needs to go for it - and if they are to achieve qualification, Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth need to get on the scoresheet. 

They proved against Seattle Sounders that they have goals across the pitch, but their forwards need to showcase why they are the favorites. Defender Clement Lenglet returns from suspension after being sent off against PSG, but he’s likely to start on the bench. 

The pressure is off Botafogo, but they will still want to continue their good form and head into the knockout stage unbeaten. 

Their front line of Savarino, Artur, and Jesus will worry Atlético, especially after their success against PSG, while breaking through Jair and Barboza won’t be easy. 

This looks to be another mouthwatering tie with so much on the line - and with so much quality spread across both sides.

Odds/Betting Discussion

The makeup of the group puts us in a unique position as punters ahead of the final game of the group. 

We know precisely what Atlético Madrid needs to do on MD3 if they’re to progress to the knockout stages. Suppose PSG beats Seattle elsewhere, Atleti will then need to overcome Botafogo by a three-goal margin to clinch qualification on Goal Difference.

Therefore, it’s no surprise to see Atlético Madrid as -164 favorites in a game they have to win. For Botafogo, all they require is a result better than a three-goal margin defeat. That makes betting on Fogo somewhat off-putting. With a low-scoring loss suiting the Brazilians, the Asian Handicap line has been set at -0.75 for Atlético Madrid.

Of course, just because a team needs to win, it doesn’t mean they will. The Copa Libertadores champions haven’t shown any reason to suggest they’ll lose by three goals here. Instead of backing Atleti in the 1X2 market or on a handicap, perhaps leaning towards Atleti to force corners, shots, and goal kicks might be the way to play this one. 

The bookmakers have gone with over/under 2.5 in the goals markets. Botafogo has proved stubborn defensively, and the same can be said for Atleti. Yet, when at least three goals are required, and at least one team will be going full pelt for 90 minutes, should it be higher?

Can Atlético Madrid Overcome Botafogo’s Low Block? Luis Enrique Couldn’t

Diego Simeone, when discussing what playing Botafogo will be like after beating Seattle 3-2 on MD2, said, “Very tough, like all Brazilian teams. They have the personality to create their plays, strong defenders, and fast players in attack. I saw them play very well against Seattle.”

“We’ll have to play in a final against Botafogo,” explained, painting a picture of what MD3 might be like between the two teams. 

PSG manager Luis Enrique was full of praise for the Brazilians in defeat, “I think Botafogo is the team that has defended us best all season, both in the League and the Champions League,” proclaimed Enrique.

“They were efficient and united. They played very well. They didn’t wait for us in a low block from the start; they had opportunities to make transitions and scored a goal with a great piece of play from Igor Jesus that gave them a lot of morale. I congratulate them.”

When discussing Botafogo’s approach to the game, the PSG head coach honed in on their use of a compact setup out of possession: “We’re used to playing against low blocks, but this time we struggled to create scoring chances. We weren’t inspired.”

BEST BET: Over 2.5 Goals (-111)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain