Bournemouth vs Leicester Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Despite defeat to Manchester City extinguishing Bournemouth's hopes of European football next season, there is much for the Cherries to celebrate this campaign. Under Andoni Iraola, the team has already achieved their highest-ever Premier League points tally, and a victory on Sunday could secure their first-ever top ten finish.
The hosts have been the biggest underperformers in terms of expected points this season and are seeking their second home win since February.
They face Leicester City, who beat them 1-0 in the reverse fixture back in October. That win marked the Foxes' first of the Premier League season, but with only five more successes recorded, a swift return to England’s second tier was inevitable. However, the visitors are currently unbeaten in three games and, with nothing at stake in this fixture, may fancy their chances for a positive result.
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Updated on 5/27/25
Analysis of the Match
While European qualification is out of reach, this match is an opportunity for Bournemouth to celebrate what has been a successful season. A win here and the Cherries can finish in the top half. They’ll also be looking for revenge after the reverse fixture between these teams.
Just one of Leicester’s six Premier League wins this season came against a side in the top 14. That, of course, was the reverse fixture against Bournemouth. Facundo Buonanotte grabbed the only goal of the game back in October.
Leicester have spent less than 14% of their Premier League matches this season in the lead. Coincidentally, 16.1% of the entire time they’ve spent in the lead in matches came in that reverse fixture against Bournemouth.
There is very little to play for other than league placement. Leicester are three points ahead of Ipswich Town in 19th place. The Tractor Boys host West Ham and a win would take them above Leicester into 18th.
But the Foxes will be quietly confident here. They’re in their best form since manager Ruud Van Nistelrooy took the helm in November. They’ve taken seven points from their last three matches, scoring more goals than they managed in the 16 matches before then.
Consistency will be the main area for improvement when Andoni Iraola reviews Bournemouth’s season. The Cherries went through long unbeaten spells other side of moments when they just couldn’t land a result.
It looks as if the South Coast side is heading towards the latter right now. Consecutive defeats to Aston Villa and Manchester City ended any hope of European qualification.
Still, they haven’t lost three straight matches all season long. They’ve only lost three of their 17 matches against the sides below them in the table. Expect Iraola’s side to go all out for the win here to end the season on a high note.
Bournemouth Analysis and Form
Bournemouth have been one of the standout surprises of the season, ranking fourth in expected points (62.16, nine more than their actual tally) and achieving their best-ever league performance. However, there is a lingering sense that they could have reached even greater heights had they maintained their momentum from mid-February onwards.
The Cherries have secured just two victories in their last 12 matches, collecting only ten points —the fifth-lowest in the league over the period. If their form hadn't dipped so dramatically, this final match on Sunday might have sealed their first historic qualification for European competition.
Despite this, Bournemouth's second campaign under Andoni Iraola has been notably positive, with 14 wins evenly split between the Vitality Stadium and away fixtures. Justin Kluivert and Evanilson have both hit double-digit goal tallies, while young talents Milos Kerkez and Dan Huijsen have shone as stand-out players in their respective roles.
Having secured just one home victory since early February—a 1-0 success over Fulham—alongside scoring only four goals, Bournemouth will be keen to end the season on a high note, potentially overtaking teams like Brentford and the Cottagers in the standings.
Leicester Analysis and Form
Leicester City celebrated Jamie Vardy's landmark 500th—and final—appearance for the club in style, securing a 2-0 victory over Ipswich Town at the King Power Stadium. The club's all-time leading goalscorer bowed out by netting his 200th goal, capping a stellar career with the Foxes that included winning both the Premier League and FA Cup. Last Sunday’s victory extended Leicester's current unbeaten run to three matches.
Since their relegation was confirmed on 20 April, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side has shown resilience, claiming home victories against fellow relegated sides Southampton and Ipswich, earning a hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Nottingham Forest, and suffering a single 3-0 defeat to Wolves.
Despite collecting only 11 points throughout 2025, avoiding defeat at the Vitality Stadium would see them conclude a tough season on a positive note, finishing third from bottom in the league table.
As the club looks ahead to life in the Championship without their talismanic figure Vardy—who will not feature against Bournemouth and is set to explore opportunities elsewhere—they aim to secure their seventh positive result on the road this season.
The visitors have struggled defensively away, with a league-worst 44 goals conceded, and their attack has been lacklustre, having scored only 18 times just three more than Southampton’s 15. However, they have shown improvement, finding the net in two of their last three away matches.
Head to Head
The previous three meetings between Bournemouth and Leicester have ended 1-0. Before said three outings, these two teams played out five fixtures with a 4.00 goals per90 average, including a Bournemouth 4-2 home win in 2018 and another seeing four goals to the hosts at the Vitality (4-1) in 2020.
Despite a recent downturn in goals in this head-to-head, Bournemouth did stump up 2.16xG to Leicester's 0.79xG earlier in the season at the King Power Stadium. The home side proved on that day that only one statistic matters - the scoreline. The 2.16xG accumulated by the Cherries in October was their highest Expected Goals total without scoring since a 1-0 defeat to Wycombe in the Championship in 2020/21.
In the 0-1 duel in the FA Cup last season, the pair registered 49 shots and nine big chances over 90 minutes and extra time. Somehow, the Foxes only just edged it, despite the data from the game suggesting those in attendance were short-changed in terms of goals.
The third and final 0-1 in the most recent trio of head-to-heads arrived in the Premier League's 2022/23 campaign. Again, it was a similar story. The chances were plentiful: 0.58xG vs 2.01xG, but the goals didn’t come in their droves. A 40th-minute Phillip Billing goal was the solitary strike to split the teams in a game which saw 33 shots, split 14:19 in favour of a visiting Cherries outfit.
Let's hope the two teams have packed their shooting boots for a final-day blowout.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Bournemouth predicted starting lineup:
Arrizabalaga; Smith, Sensei, Zabarnyi, Kerkez, Adams; Winterburn, Semenyo; Kluivert, Tavernier; Evanilson
Leicester predicted starting lineup:
Stolarczyk; Justin, Faes, Coady, Thomas; Ndidi, Soumare; Khannouss, Ayew, McAteer; Daka
Lewis Cook’s straight red card versus Manchester City has ruled him out of contention to feature on the final day. Andoni Iraola could opt for Ben Winterburn in the centre of midfield, handing the 20-year-old his first Premier League start.
Despite intense speculation linking Milos Kerkez to a move away from Bournemouth like teammate Dean Huijsen, the Hungarian should cap a fine season by being tasked to get up and down the left flank from the start. Semenyo, Kluivert, and Tavernier will likely provide creative support to Evanilson in forward areas in an attempt to break down a visiting Foxes backline.
For Leicester, Jamie Vardy has ruled himself out of the 38th fixture of the season. The former England international wanted to end his Leicester career on the 500-game milestone marker. In true Jamie Vardy fashion, he signed off with his 200th goal for the club. Patson Daka is tipped to come in and replace Vardy.
Jakub Stolarczyk remains between the sticks for the Foxes. The Polish shot-stopper has navigated three starts in the last three weeks, with Leicester unbeaten in that stretch.
BEST BET: Bournemouth to win and Under 4.5 (+140)
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