Burnley vs. Manchester City: Premier League Picks

The Premier League, the top flight soccer league in England, rolls on after an exciting weekend of action.

Two of the hottest teams in the EPL meet on the pitch at Etihad Stadium on Monday in Manchester when Burnley (11-6-12) comes calling. Pep Guardiola's Manchester City (19-3-7) squad remains relatively unscathed as far as injuries are concerned, with only Eric Garcia (head) listed on the injury report and unlikely to play after suffering what is believed to be a head injury last time out against Arsenal.

For Burnley, they have managed to go unbeaten across their past seven outings during EPL play. If they hope to push that streak to eight games, they will need to do so without the services of Johann Gudmundsson, as well as Chris Wood, as each are doubtful to play. Ashley Barnes has already been ruled out with a back ailment, so manager Sean Dyche's side faces an uphill battle on the road.

Arsenal vs. Manchester City Picks
Raheem Sterling and Manchester City have gone 10-2-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents 36-12. (AP)

Manchester City vs. Burnley
Betting Resources

Odds: Manchester City -715, Burnley +1800, Draw +750
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Location: Manchester, United Kingdom
TV-Time: NBCSN, 3:00 p.m. ET

Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only

Inside the Numbers

  • 2nd place: Manchester City – 60 Points (19-3-7)
  • Goal Differential: +40 (71-31)
  • Home Record: 10-2-2, GD +24 (36-12)
  • 11th place: Burnley – 39 points (11-6-12)
  • Goal Differential: -6 (34-40)
  • Road Record: 4-4-6, GD -7 (14-21)

Unfortunately for Man City, they are behind the buzzsaw Liverpool in the EPL standings. The Reds will claim the EPL title through 29 matchdays. However, Man City would be a championship contender in a normal year, and their remarkable plus-40 goal differential would be impressive in any season.

They have also found the back of the net 71 times, five more times than Liverpool entering play on Sunday. Defensively they haven't been as tight as the first-place side, but they are tied for fourth in fewest goals allowed.


The last time we saw Burnley before the COVID-19 pause, they tied Tottenham Hotspur 1-1, and that came on the heels of a scoreless draw with Newcastle United. In fact, Burnley had managed to go on a five-match unbeaten streak across all competitions before the virus struck, and a seven-game unbeaten run in EPL, going 4-0-3.

Burnley doesn't have the studs like some of the other premier league sides possess, and losing Wood and Barnes, their top two scorers will hurt. Wood led the team with 11 goals through 26 matches, while Barnes found the back of the net six times across 19 outings.

Manchester City vs. Burnley
Head-to-Head Action

Last 5 Meetings

  • Dec. 3, 2019 – Manchester City 4 at Burnley 1
  • April 28, 2019 – Manchester City 1 at Burnley 0
  • Jan. 26, 2019 – Burnley 0 at Manchester City 5
  • Oct. 20, 2018 – Burnley 0 at Manchester City 5
  • Feb. 3, 2018 – Manchester City 1 at Burnley 1

Manchester City has dominated this series, and they've won eight of the previous nine matches on their home pitch against Burnley across all competitions. In addition, Man City has bagged at least four markers in each of their past three outings at Etihad against Burnley across all competitions. That doesn't bode well for the visitors, as they look for a big turnaround in the series. It likely isn't happening with their top two snipers nursing ailments.

Game Prediction
Best Bets

Manchester City 4, Burnley 0

Man City has the quick turnaround after dispatching Arsenal 3-0 in a mid-week match in the Merseyside Derby. However, the fact that Burnley is banged up and missing a lot of their firepower likely means that the beat goes on for Man City and Pep Guardiola's side.

Obviously you can't eat all of that chalk, taking Man City (-715) straight up. That's just suicide if things go sideways and Burnley manages to get a fluke goal or two and pull the upset. A safer play would be betting the Asian Handicap and taking Manchester City -1.75 (-200), or -2 (-157).

Over-Under Picks

Over 3.5 Goals

Both of these teams are strong offensively, although as mentioned, Burnley is missing its top two scorers. Still, Guardiola's side should be fit enough and possess enough firepower to take care of the over all on their own.

Taking Over 3.5 (-117) is a sound investment, especially considering Man City has watched the Over 2.5 goals hit in eight straight home matches against Burnley across all competitions. They have also scored at least two goals in six consecutive EPL outings at Etihad.

Goal-Scorer Props
Players to Score

Burnley - None
Manchester City - Sergio Aguero, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling

Aguero (-228) is the chalk for the goal scorers (anytime) prop, as he looks to add to his team-leading 16 goals in 23 matches for Man City. De Bruyne (+180) found the back of the net in the mid-week win over Arsenal, his ninth of the season in 27 matches. Sterling (-106) is second on the team in goals with 12, while Gabriel Jesus (-150) is also in double figures on the season for the hosts.