Chelsea vs Manchester United Predictions, Picks

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Like Aston Villa's clash with Tottenham, this game has also been moved to Friday night to give Manchester United ample time to prepare for the Europa League final. With 63 points, matching their total from the end of last season, Chelsea's success this campaign has been underpinned by solid home form.

The Blues are unbeaten at Stamford Bridge in the league in 2025 and must secure three points ahead of another crucial match next weekend against Nottingham Forest. 

In contrast, Manchester United have been in relegation form since February, averaging only 0.76 points per game and have managed just one victory against a current top-10 side away from home, defeating Manchester City 2-1.

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MATCH ANALYSIS

/Chelsea are in the driving seat for securing a Champions League place. They sit fifth in the Premier League, ahead of Aston Villa on goal difference. Nottingham Forest are also breathing down their necks in the race to finish in the top five, but the Blues’ destiny is in their own hands. 

They face a Manchester United side that will have one eye on the Europa League after enduring a disastrous domestic campaign, so expect the home side to be in the ascendancy. 

Enzo Maresca will aim to start quickly and make amends for their lacklustre showing at St. James’s Park last weekend. Chelsea will likely have the lion’s share of possession. They have averaged 56% at home in the league, which has been a crucial factor in the excellent run of nine games unbeaten at Stamford Bridge. 

Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, and Noni Madueke all looked lively in the Blues’ 3-1 win over Liverpool. The dynamic trio will aim to take advantage of a Manchester United side that has struggled to adapt to Ruben Amorim’s system. Palmer will look to find pockets of space in front of United’s back three,  an area where Jarrod Bowen had success in the last round of Premier League fixtures. Palmer netted a hat-trick in this fixture last season. 

A win for Chelsea could effectively secure a Champions League place if results elsewhere go their way, thanks to their vastly superior goal difference to Aston Villa. However, a final day showdown against Nottingham Forest to finish in the top five is likely.

The result is immaterial for Manchester United. They are already guaranteed to have their worst-ever Premier League season. Ruben Amorim’s focus is on winning the Europa League and rebuilding the squad in the summer.

CHELSEA ANALYSIS AND CURRENT FORM

Nicolas Jackson's dismissal versus Newcastle was his 18th card in his first two seasons in England, ruling him out of Chelsea's final two crucial fixtures. 

The striker averages 0.27 cards per90 from 65 appearances in the Premier League, not far off his goals per90 figure: 0.36. That leaves the Blues without a recognised number nine for two matches that will go some way to deciding who qualifies for the Champions League in fourth and fifth. 

Jackson's questionable booking record highlights precisely what he offers the team away from goals - a focal point, and one that will occupy defenders. With Christopher Nkunku sidelined with an injury and Marc Guiu yet to return to full fitness, it raises interesting questions surrounding Chelsea's front line. 

Could Pedro Neto be deployed as a false nine? Should Enzo Maresca trust Tyrique George more centrally? The Chelsea youngster performed in a similar position versus Djurgarden recently. 

Similarly to Manchester United, Chelsea also has a European final to look forward to. Fortunately for Maresca, from a selection point of view, the tussle with Real Betis falls after the Premier League season finishes, unlike their Friday night visitors. 

Over the previous six games, only Bournemouth matches (11) have seen fewer goals than Chelsea's 14. The four strikes at home to Liverpool bump up that total somewhat, with Blues fixtures becoming relatively low-margin events in recent months. 

Since the start of March, six of Chelsea's nine games have overseen fewer than three goals in a division averaging 2.96 goals per90 after 36 fixtures. Will we see another low-scoring encounter without key personnel and an opponent focusing on other competitions?

MANCHESTER UNITED ANALYSIS AND FORM

Much has been said about Manchester United's Premier League form this season. Ruben Amorim was drafted in on 23 November to salvage the campaign and breathe new life into a group devoid of ideas and confidence. Unfortunately for Amorim, there have been few positive moments that stand out in his short United tenure.

Since the new manager's arrival, United have won just six of 25 Premier League fixtures, conceding 41 goals in the process. Only fellow Europa League finalists, Tottenham, and the three relegated clubs have shipped more.

United failed to score in ten of the 25 matches, scoring just 30 goals, which is the sixth-worst of all Premier League clubs in the post-Amorim timeframe. 

The 2021/22 campaign oversaw Manchester United's lowest ever points tally (58). Currently on 39 points with two games to play, Amorim's United will reduce that unwanted record points total by thirteen at a minimum.

With the Europa League final on the horizon next Wednesday, does Ruben Amorim attempt to salvage any credibility in the Premier League by fielding a strong eleven? United's league form is a lost cause. Champions League qualification is on the line just five days later - expect the away side to lack motivation against a Chelsea team needing to be at their 100% best.

HEAD TO HEAD ANALYSIS

Manchester United have won just one of their last six Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge, drawing four. A 2-0 win in 2020 under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was the last time the Red Devils tasted victory at Stamford Bridge. A goal apiece from Anthony Martial and Harry Maguire settled proceedings on that day, as Manchester United pieced together a third-placed finish.

The reverse (1-1) fixture between the two teams was a spicy affair, with no fewer than eight yellow cards. The most recent three fixtures between United and Chelsea have witnessed the referee dip into his pocket at least four times.

In November, Manchester United (1.98xG) outmuscled Chelsea (1.10xG) in the underlying data stakes, whilst also recording four big chances to Chelsea's one. The hosts required a Bruno Fernandes penalty to open the scoring before Moises Caicedo scored the Blues' opener just four minutes later. 

The Ecuadorian’s strike ensured a seven-game head-to-head streak of both teams scoring continued at Old Trafford, boasting a 3.28 goals per 90 average from a streak dating back four years.

TEAM NEWS AND PREDICTED LINEUPS

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Lavia; Madueke, Fernandez, Palmer; Neto

Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Onana; Dorgu, Maguire, Lindelof, Amass; Ugarte, Mount; Mainoo, Garnacho, Hojlund

The main question here is just how strong a team Ruben Amorim will name ahead of next Wednesday’s Europa League final. Bruno Fernandes is a mainstay in this Manchester United side, but should he start here? The same conundrum falls on Casemiro, Garnacho and Harry Maguire - three critical cogs in this United system.

Lenny Yoro will likely miss out through injury, but Amad Diallo could return following his spell on the sidelines. Joshua Zirkzee, Lisandro Martinez, Toby Collyer, Ayden Heaven, and Matthijs De Ligt will all miss the game. The defensive issues mean Amorim could have no choice but to start Maguire and Lindelof.

For the Blues, the big talking point is up front. Nicholas Jackson’s suspension opens up a void up front. Christopher Nkunku and Marc Guiu are unavailable so we could see Pedro Neto or Tyrique George operate in the middle from the start. The latter did well versus Djurgarden, whilst Neto can run the channel, occupy defenders and link the midfield and attack.

Mykhailo Mudryk, David Fofana and Omari Kellyman's unavailability adds to Enzo Maresca's selection headaches in the final third. Wesley Fofana is also set to miss the remainder of the season following surgery.

MANAGER QUOTES/OTHER NOTES

Manchester United boss Ruben Amorim has reiterated his feelings of "embarrassment" after United suffered yet another defeat at home to West Ham on Sunday.

"It's difficult to describe it any other way,” said the Portuguese manager. 

“I'm truly embarrassed that out of 25 games, we've won only six. There's something fundamentally wrong with how we are playing, and it's not always about tactics and technical execution.”

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson