Fluminense vs. Chelsea Predictions, Odds and Pick

Doug Ziefel Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

On the brink of international glory, Chelsea is just two victories away from achieving their dream as they gear up to take on the last remaining South American representative in the tournament.

Although the odds seem to favor the Blues, Fluminense is no stranger to the role of underdog. With a squad valued more than ten times that of their opponents, Chelsea is currently at -143, suggesting a 58.8% chance of winning.

However, it’s worth noting that Fluminense triumphed against unfavorable odds in their 2-0 victory over Inter. The Blues have netted 12 goals from an expected goals (xG) value of 8.7 but will face a formidable challenge ahead. Fluminense boasts the second-best defensive record in the tournament, conceding only 0.6 goals per match.

This matchup exemplifies a clash of contrasting strategies and philosophies as both teams vie for a place in the finals. In this high-stakes encounter, sheer market value and squad depth won't be the determining factors.

While Chelsea may have a more extensive roster and fresher players, Fluminense has an intangible quality that statistics can’t quantify. Can they uncover that elusive star power that has previously toppled European powerhouses and pull off another stunning upset?

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(Featured Image Credit:  Kyle Ross- Imagn Images)

Updated on 7/9/25

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Analysis of the Match

This could be the final intercontinental showdown of the tournament, and it's poised to be an exciting encounter. Fluminense has already demonstrated the skill and tenacity needed to challenge European teams, and they will aim to maintain that intensity in hopes of pulling off another upset against Chelsea.

Maresca's team has displayed a combative spirit throughout the season. Chelsea, known for being the most carded team in the Premier League last year, has continued this trend in the Club World Cup, accumulating 12 yellow cards and one red card—only Fluminense and Benfica have received more, with 13 cards.

Both teams are expected to play aggressively, but there is no shortage of talent on the field. In four of their five matches at the Club World Cup, Fluminense has had less possession than their opponents. However, that hasn't diminished their attacking threat. Their wing-backs, Samuel Xavier and Gabriel Fuentes, have excelled in both defense and attack, using their stamina to create numerical advantages in critical areas of play.

Chelsea will also need to devise a strategy to contain Jhon Arias. The Colombian forward has proven to be the most inventive player in the tournament, showcasing his unpredictability on the ball. Maresca has a wealth of attacking options at his disposal.

With Liam Delap suspended, Joao Pedro is expected to spearhead the attack, supported by the sharp performances of Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto. Both teams boast immense quality and creativity, promising a thrilling contest that could very well be decided by a moment of brilliance.

Fluminense Analysis and Form

Fluminense has made a remarkable showing in this tournament, standing out as the only non-European team to reach the semi-finals—an achievement they have certainly earned. Under the guidance of Renato Portaluppi, Fluminense finished second in their group, accumulating five points from three matches.

This set the stage for a challenging round of 16 encounter with Inter, a test they passed with tremendous success. The Champions League runners-up struggled to match the Brazilian team’s relentless intensity. Fluzão took an early lead and then showcased strong defensive capabilities throughout the match, all while remaining a significant threat on the counterattack.

This strategic approach will be crucial against Chelsea if they hope to advance to the final. In their quarter-final against Al Hilal, Portaluppi’s squad allowed their opponents to dominate possession. Matheus Martinelli opened the scoring for Fluminense, but Marcos Leonardo quickly equalized.

Hercules then came off the bench to net the decisive goal in the 70th minute. Having impactful substitutes will be essential when facing a Chelsea team that might be fatigued after a long season. Jhon Arias has been the standout performer for Fluminense, creating 17 chances at the Club World Cup—more than any other player in the tournament.

His combination of speed, strength, and dribbling ability makes him a challenging player to defend against.

Chelsea Analysis and Form

This will mark Chelsea’s 63rd match of the season across all competitions. The Blues have made a deep run in the Europa Conference League while securing a top-four finish in the Premier League. Player fitness is likely a significant concern for Enzo Maresca, but fortunately for him and the team, they have a robust squad that has performed admirably during the Club World Cup.

In their previous round, Chelsea triumphed over Palmeiras with a 2-1 victory, though they could have added more to their tally. The team controlled possession and fired off 19 shots, forcing Palmeiras' keeper, Weverton, into making five saves. Maresca has a wealth of attacking talent at his disposal, and the squad has been strengthened since the tournament began.

Joao Pedro made his debut from the bench during the quarter-finals, providing an additional offensive option. Chelsea has averaged 15.4 shots per game (excluding extra time) in this tournament, suggesting they will have plenty of chances in this matchup. Cole Palmer has been impressive in the knockout stages, notching an assist against Benfica in the round of 16 and then scoring Chelsea’s opener in their 2-1 victory over Palmeiras.

However, despite these positives, the Blues will remain vigilant regarding Fluminense’s attacking prowess. The Brazilian teams have made a strong impression at this Club World Cup, a truth Chelsea is all too aware of following their 3-1 defeat to Flamengo in the group stage.

Head-to-Head

Fluminense has only encountered English teams on one occasion, suffering a 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in the 2023 Club World Cup Final. Players like Xavier, Martinelli, Arias, and goalkeeper Fabio were all part of that match and are expected to start again in this upcoming game.

On the other hand, Chelsea has faced Brazilian clubs four times—two of those matchups occurred earlier in this tournament. The Blues lost 3-1 to Flamengo during the group stage but rebounded to defeat Palmeiras in the quarter-finals. This recent matchup with Palmeiras was their second encounter; the teams had previously met in the 2022 Club World Cup final.

The match was level after 90 minutes, but Kai Havertz netted an extra-time goal to clinch victory for Chelsea. Chelsea's first clash with a Brazilian side came back in 2012, shortly after they secured their inaugural Champions League title against Bayern Munich. In that Club World Cup final, they faced Corinthians from São Paulo, who triumphed with a 1-0 victory, thanks to a goal by Paulo Guerrero in the 69th minute.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Fluminense's possible starting lineup:

Fabio; Ignacio, T. Silva, Fuentes; Xavier, Hercules, Bernal, Nonato, Rene; Arias, Cano.

Chelsea possible starting lineup:

Sanchez; Gusto, Tosin, Chalobah, Cucurella; Fernandez, Caicedo; Neto, Palmer, Nkunku; Joao Pedro.

Fluminense will be missing Matheus Martinelli and Juan Freytes, both suspended due to yellow cards received in their quarter-final win. However, experienced defender Rene returns from suspension and is eligible to play. Thiago Silva is dealing with a nose injury but is expected to lead the defense against his former team.

In the attacking front, German Cano and Jhon Arias are set to be the key players. For Chelsea, Moises Caicedo will make his return to the starting lineup after serving his suspension. Unfortunately, they will be without the suspended duo of Levi Colwill and Liam Delap. Fitness issues persist for Benoit Badiashile, Reece James, and Romeo Lavia, with James and Lavia having missed the previous match against Palmeiras.

Additionally, Nicolas Jackson is expected to spearhead the attack, though new signing Joao Pedro may also get a start with Delap out of the lineup.

Odds Discussion and Pick

As the Club World Cup approaches the semi-finals, Chelsea prepares to face a well-disciplined Fluminense team. The Brazilians have defied expectations, overcoming pre-tournament odds of +6600 to reach this stage.

As the favorites, Chelsea enters the match with a -0.75 Asian Handicap. This means that bettors supporting Chelsea will need the team to win by at least one goal for a partial payout and by two or more goals for a full payout. This line reflects Chelsea's overall quality and depth rather than solely their recent performances, especially considering Fluminense's notably resilient defensive efforts during the tournament.

The Brazilian side has already faced European competition twice, achieving a victory over Borussia Dortmund and securing a draw with Inter, all while conceding just one goal and allowing a combined expected goals (xG) of only 1.53 across both matches. The Asian goal line is set at 2.25, a figure that recognizes Chelsea's attacking capabilities while also acknowledging Fluminense's talent for containing stronger opponents.

Bettors choosing the over on the Asian goal line will need a total of three or more goals to win, with exactly two goals in regulation resulting in a half-loss. With Fluminense ranking 16th for expected goals in the tournament at just 0.92 xG per match, a more conservative style of play seems likely. Market trends indicate a prediction of a low-scoring game.

The odds for the "No" on the both teams to score (BTTS) market are shorter than the opposite. In summary, bookmakers anticipate Chelsea to secure a victory in a low-scoring matchup.

PICK: Under 1.0 1st Half Goals (-120)

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