Fulham vs Manchester City Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Manchester City are on the brink of securing Champions League qualification, needing just a single point after their 3-1 victory over Bournemouth on Tuesday. 

The Citizens delivered a strong performance in Kevin De Bruyne’s final home match, yet their season, marked by the absence of a major trophy for the first time since 2016/17, has been marked by defensive frailties and inconsistency.

Pep Guardiola's side is currently riding a nine-match unbeaten streak, and there's further cause for optimism with the return of Rodri, who has been sidelined for most of the season with an ACL injury. 

Fulham, meanwhile, are out of the running for a Conference League spot, but having already set a new record for Premier League points, they will be keen to finish the season on a high. Despite defeats in their last two home fixtures, the Cottagers have shown they can rise to the occasion against top teams at home, with notable victories over Liverpool, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forest.

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Analysis of the Match

Fulham will need to be at their very best to get something out of this one. A win for the hosts would secure a spot in the top 10 in what is already their best-ever Premier League season in terms of points tally.

A lot of that is down to their excellent form at Craven Cottage. The Cottagers have won five and drawn one of their eight home matches against the sides above them. In fact, they’ve taken more points from their matches against sides in the top half (29 from 17) than against the bottom half (25 from 20).

So, it will be a tough test for a Manchester City side chasing Champions League qualification. Victory over Bournemouth in midweek put them on 68 points and in a commanding position. There is still plenty of work to do with three sides behind them on 66. 

Fulham really showed their threat in the reverse fixture. Despite losing 3-2, the Cottagers won the xG battle 2.76-1.37 in their favour. The visitors missed a host of chances and highlighted the vulnerabilities of a Rodri-less Man City. Many teams since then have exploited these issues.

Pep Guardiola has kept things much tighter in recent weeks. City conceded just once in their three games in May against Wolves, Southampton, and Bournemouth, restricting their opponents to a combined total of 1.72 xG or 0.57 per game. That’s pretty good considering they conceded an average of 1.44 xGA in their 34 matches this season before then.  

Fulham Analysis and Form

Once again, the 'comeback kings' have pulled off another dramatic turnaround. Second only to their upcoming opponents, Manchester City, in terms of rescued points this season (18 to City's 19), Fulham secured their fifth victory from a losing position against Brentford last Sunday. 

This success helped the Cottagers set a new Premier League points record for the club. Yet qualification for next season’s European competitions remains unattainable, following Crystal Palace’s FA Cup win and Brighton’s victory over Liverpool.

Nevertheless, Marco Silva’s men displayed remarkable resilience and determination during the West London derby, especially after managing just three points from a possible 15 in prior matches.

Now, Fulham are focused on wrapping up the season in style, potentially causing an upset that could influence the race for Champions League spots next term.

This season, Fulham have performed better on their travels, collecting 28 points on the road compared to 26 at Craven Cottage, where they recently suffered consecutive defeats to Chelsea and Everton. However, they have often elevated their performances against top sides at home, registering wins over Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, and Newcastle, and earning a draw against Arsenal.

Fulham’s defensive frailties, particularly at home, have arguably been their Achilles’ heel this season. They have only managed two clean sheets in front of their supporters, against Southampton and Spurs, with only Ipswich and Brentford faring worse defensively.

Manchester City Analysis and Form

Manchester City's nine-match unbeaten run in the league, earning 21 out of a possible 27 points, does not alleviate the disappointment of a season where the Premier League and Champions League favourites fell short of securing a major trophy.

The unraveling began in late September when Rodri suffered an ACL injury. The 2024 Ballon d’Or winner has always been a pivotal figure in Pep Guardiola’s setup, but few anticipated the extent of the negative impact his absence would have on last season’s champions.

City's early EFL Cup exit, at the hands of Tottenham, was compounded by a poor  Champions League group phase and play-off elimination, which highlighted City’s defensive vulnerabilities. 

Despite Erling Haaland's impressive tally of 30 goals and the January signings of Omar Marmoush and Nico González, City never looked able to mount a successful defense of their Premier League title.

Last Saturday, the Citizens were unfortunate not to find the net against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final, generating 2.60 xG, yet they rebounded with a convincing win over Bournemouth on Tuesday. 

A draw at Craven Cottage will be enough to clinch Champions League qualification, setting the stage for City’s participation in the inaugural Club World Cup and what is expected to be a summer of many changes at the Etihad.

Head to Head 

Manchester City have won the previous 17 meetings against Fulham. Home, away, and in any cup competitions - the Citizens have won every head-to-head since February 2012.

The last time Fulham got something from a match-up with Manchester City was in 2011 (2-2). Edin Dzeko led the line away at Craven Cottage, with Sergio Aguero, Samir Nasri, and David Silva just in behind. The likes of John Arne Riise at left-back, Damien Duff on the right flank and Clint Dempsey on the left made up the most recent Fulham eleven capable of halting this Manchester City juggernaut.

Twenty-three matches have passed since Fulham beat Manchester City. April 2009 saw a Fulham outfit, boasting Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora up front, put three past Shay Given and leave Manchester with all three points. The Cottagers clawed their way to seventh in the Premier League in 2009/10, qualifying for the Europa League, while City could only muster a 10th-placed finish.

Little did Fulham know that ending the season in 7th would set up a Europa League final the following campaign against Atletico Madrid in the biggest game of the club's history. Diego Forlan's extra-time winner sent the English home empty-handed.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Fulham predicted starting lineup:
Leno; Tete, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson; Luckic, Berge; Traore, Wilson, Iwobi; Jiminez

Manchester City predicted starting lineup:
Ederson; Rico Lewis, Ruben Dias, Gvardiol, Akanji; De Bruyne, B. Silva; Savinho, Doku, Marmoush; Haaland

Rodri’s return from the bench against Bournemouth raises the question of whether Pep Guardiola moves him into the starting lineup at Craven Cottage on the final day. With the Club World Cup on the horizon after such a nasty injury, the Spaniard will likely fulfill a similar role to the Cherries' win on Tuesday evening.

Mateo Kovacic received a red card versus Bournemouth for a last-ditch tug on Evanilson whilst operating as Manchester City’s last line of defence. That’ll rule him out here, with Kevin De Bruyne potentially partnering Bernardo Silva in the middle of midfield in a deeper role. 

Marmoush, Savinho, and Doku could start against Fulham, handing City a very attack-focused quartet with Erling Haaland as the focal point.

Fulham set a new record for most goals scored by substitutes (17) in a single Premier League campaign during their win over Brentford last weekend. 

On the pitch, in the starting eleven, Raul Jimenez should lead the line against City on the final day with Muniz’s fitness in question. In support, Wilson, Traore, and Iwobi are tipped to start. Yet, Cairney, Smith-Rowe, and Sessegnon won’t be far away from the manager’s plans.

BEST BET: Manchester City to Win (-167)

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson