Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Inter Miami will face Palmeiras on Monday at 9:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match action from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

From a tense draw against Al Ahly to defeating the Portuguese giants, Messi and his team continue to alter the narrative dramatically. However, the real test now lies ahead. Palmeiras, the two-time Copa Libertadores champions in recent years, currently leads the group and aims to maintain their position. Historically, the role of favorites hasn't favored Inter Miami, who are given only a 19% chance of winning this match, while Palmeiras stands at a comfortable 46.5% (+115 on the moneyline).

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Analysis of the Match

Both Inter Miami and Palmeiras will only need a point to guarantee qualification to the next round, having both won last time out. Inter Miami came from behind to beat Porto 2-1, while Palmeiras breezed past Al Ahly 2-0. Palmeiras and Manchester City are the only teams yet to concede at the Club World Cup.

We have witnessed mixed performances so far from Inter Miami. They may be fortunate to be in the position they find themselves in.

Al Ahly missed a first-half penalty as well as several big chances in their curtain-raiser. Porto should have been out of sight in the first 45 minutes before some Lionel Messi magic turned that game on its head.

If the MLS side starts slow once more, Palmeiras will be there to swoop in, collect all three points, and top Group A. With the Brazilians continuing to impress, there's no reason why they can't sign off their group with back-to-back wins.

It's not always glamorous under Abel Ferreira, but the Portuguese head coach knows how to win. His team has been defensively disciplined, yet has the quality to break quickly and punish poor defenses. 

On the other side, Inter Miami's defense hasn't looked convincing yet. Goalkeeper Oscar Ustari has arguably been their best player. 

Inter Miami Analysis and Form

After a disappointing 0-0 draw with Al Ahly and a poor first-half display against Porto, Inter Miami turned up in the second 45 minutes against their European opponents to put one foot in the round of 16.

Telasco Segovia equalized just two minutes into the second half before a wonderful Lionel Messi free-kick claimed all three points. But now they will have their biggest test against Palmeiras. It's a side that has yet to concede and sits on top of Group A.

And so Inter Miami will need to be much tighter and switched on at the back if they are to pick up any points against Abel Ferreira's side. Defender Maximiliano Falcon Picart has been a liability so far and will undoubtedly be targeted by Palmeiras in the final group match. They will need more than just Messi's magic to win this match.

Palmeiras Analysis and Form

So far, so good for Palmerias. After a disappointing 0-0 draw against Porto, having dominated the match, Verdao got off the mark with a comfortable victory against Al Ahly last week.

An own goal from a Raphael Veiga corner, as well as Flaco Lopez early on in the second half, showed how Palmeiras can be a threat in multiple ways. Palmeiras countered so quickly, allowing Lopez to cut through Al Ahly's defense. They'll be looking to play the same tactics against Inter Miami.

The Argentine forward may well replace Vitor Roque, having impressed in both of his appearances from the bench. The former Barcelona striker hasn't settled well in the first two matches, and Ferreira may need to freshen things up.

Their head coach may also look to bring in Paulinho, who has returned to full fitness of late and has shown glimpses of how capable he can be in the final third.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

Inter Miami is stepping into uncharted waters as it prepares for its first encounter with Brazilian opposition and only its third match against a non-CONCACAF team, having been established in 2018. 

However, Leo Messi brings invaluable experience, having played seven Club World Cup matches without tasting defeat and netting six goals in the process.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, have yet to play against a team from the United States, but their experience in intercontinental contests exceeds that of the MLS side. 

They have taken part in seven matches between the Intercontinental Cup and the Club World Cup, securing victories in only two, both against Al Ahly. 

Before last Thursday, their sole victory over non-CONMEBOL sides was a 2-0 win in February 2022's semi-final, also against the Egyptians. 

The Brazilians have also featured in two finals, losing to Chelsea 2-1 in extra time in 2022 and enduring a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United in 1999, courtesy of Roy Keane's goal.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Inter Miami's possible starting lineup:

Ustari; Allen, Picart, Fray, Weigandt, Segovia, Busquets, Creamschi, Allende, Suarez, Messi.

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:

Weverton; Piquerez, Murilo, Gomez, Giay, Mayke, Veiga, Rios, Estevao, Paulinho, Lopez.

All eyes will once again be on Lionel Messi, especially after his stunning free-kick against Porto. Inter Miami heavily relies on their Argentine to come up with match-winning moments. However, Segovia showed his ability in the final third, and Palmeiras' full-backs will need to keep an eye on him.

Raphael Veiga has returned to the starting eleven, and it's clear to see why. 

The Brazilian controls Palmeiras' midfield, and alongside Richard Rios, Verdao is a real threat when on the front foot. 

Estevao, Paulinho, and Lopez can freshen up Ferreira's attack and cause Inter Miami plenty of issues.

Odds Discussion

The Brazilians enter Matchday Three as the favorites, with a price tag around even with most bookmakers. Lionel Messi and Inter Miami take their place as the underdogs in the fixture.

The draw is a much shorter price than you'll usually see in a standard fixture. However, this isn't a typical set of circumstances that surrounds the game between Inter Miami and Palmeiras. 

Both teams will progress to the knockout stages if this game ends in a draw. 

That doesn't mean a draw is what we'll get. Yet, if the game is nearing the 70th-minute mark and the fixture is 0-0, 1-1, or any other variation of a draw, will either team try their utmost to find the winner? 

Of course, whoever wins here will finish top of the group. That's currently Palmeiras, and it'll remain as the Brazilians if both teams lock in just one point. 

With the Asian Handicap line set at +0.25, Inter Miami are winners if the game ends tied, and full returns if the MLS outfit wins the contest. Considering the circumstances, might this be the best way to approach the game?

Palmerias, though, are favorites for a good reason. If we pick apart and analyze their performances at the Club World Cup, they boast enough within their ranks to beat the Herons. 

However, they could, quite feasibly, find an early goal and kill any hopes of the draw transpiring, sending half of the stadium home unhappy.

Lionel, The Talk of the Town

We've all run out of superlatives to describe Lionel Messi by now. Still, Javier Mascherano, former Liverpool and Barcelona midfielder, now Inter Miami manager, gave it his best shot following the 2-1 win over Porto; 

"His hunger, his resilience, his desire to continue competing at whatever level shows us the path we all have to take. From a soccer standpoint, what more can you say? He is the best player in history to play this sport, but his desire to still win is what is surprising."

Messi didn't feature in the post-match press conference required of him for being Man of the Match, but did quickly speak to reporters after the game, "I am very happy because we had been left with a bitter taste after the first game because we thought we could have won it."

Palmeiras wonderkid, Estevao doesn't have too many appearances left in green. The young Brazilian has earned a big-money switch to the Premier League with Chelsea following the Club World Cup.

Speaking ahead of the clash against Inter Miami, Estevao spoke about his plans once 90 minutes is up, "As soon as the final whistle blows, I'm going to run to him [Lionel Messi] so we can swap shirts. But before that, I'll be giving my everything so Palmeiras can walk off the field with three points."

BEST BET: Halftime Result - Draw (+120)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain