PSG vs. Bayern Munich Predictions, Odds and Pick

This is the standout game of the quarter-finals. PSG is the reigning European champion and the current favorite to win the Club World Cup heading into the next round of fixtures. 

Luis Enrique’s side emphatically beat Inter Miami 4-0 in the last round, but the odds suggest they will have a tougher time against the German champions.

Bayern Munich has around a 47% chance of making it to the semi-finals, according to the bookmakers. Having suffered just one defeat in their last 11 competitive matches, Vincent Kompany’s men will want to upset the apple cart by eliminating the leading contender to lift the trophy.

Nevertheless, PSG will be hard to beat. Their relentless pressing, fluid movement in attack and a wealth of creativity make them a formidable foe. Will we see Les Parisiens at their very best when they square off against Bayern?

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Updated on 7/5/25

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Analysis of the Match

After finally achieving their goal and winning the Champions League for the first time, PSG rightfully earns the title of favorites to go all the way. But that doesn’t mean it will be an easy road to lifting another trophy.

The German champions secured yet another, and record 34th Bundesliga trophy. However, it seems like they are still trying to figure things out under Vincent Kompany. Despite being lethal in offence, they are still struggling against top-tier teams.

Considering both teams are built to play offensively, this feels like it could be a goal-riddled game. Bayern sits at the top with City based on goals per match (4.0), but with Les Parisiens (2.5) in 6th place based on this metric.

Midfield control and spacing in transition will be the key to winning this clash. And this is where the European champions get the edge.

PSG’s double pivot will invite Bayern forward, bait them, and then snap into space down the flanks with Dembele and Kvara. With the Paris-based team averaging 72.0% possession, best in this competition, it's understandable why they are slight favorites.

The Bavarians will be far from timid and hopeless in this clash. They have shown their quality so far, and are among the top three in relevant metrics such as goals per match (4.0), expected goals (10.0 xG), shots on target per match, as well as big chances.

The question is whether they can breach, defensively, the best team so far in this tournament. Les Rouge-et-Bleu have only conceded 0.3 xGA so far, keeping three clean sheets. They only conceded against Botafogo, when they also failed to score in the second round of the Group Stage.

PSG Analysis and Form

There is no denying it anymore, PSG is no longer the soft-bellied, star-choked giant of old. This version under Luis Enrique plays with clarity and gives football fans what they want to see. 

Fluid and offensive style with young stars at the helm earns its European crown. Their positional structure has suffocated opponents, and they don’t need five clear-cut chances to bury you. That kind of efficiency wins tournaments.

Excluding their surprising loss against Botafogo, Les Parisiens had no issues in their games. A 4-0 opener against Atletico Madrid was a clear indicator of their intentions to go all the way.

It was the Inter Miami match that best displayed their quality. Despite being heavy underdogs,many thought the Herons would at least get on the scoresheet. Unfortunately for them, their key players, Messi and Suarez, didn’t have the opportunity to play as PSG starved them of possession in the attacking third.

Messi only had three touches in the opposition box, while Suarez was locked to only two. Despite their best efforts, Miami generated only 0.43 xG compared to 2.91 xG from PSG. This best shows the Paris-based team’s ability to control the game and leave nothing to chance.

Bayern Munich Analysis and Form

While this may not be the iron-fisted Bayern of the Flick era, they are still one of the most dangerous attacking machines in the world. Under Vincent Kompany, they have taken a step toward unpredictability. Sometimes exhilarating, sometimes fractured, but always capable of blowing a game open.

The numbers don’t lie. The Bavarians are level with City and share the top spot based on goals per match (4.0). They are also second in relevant metrics such as xG, shots on target, big chances, touches in the opposition box, etc. 

But, most importantly, Harry Kane looks like a man playing with purpose. In addition to scoring 41 goals this season, he netted three times in this competition, along with one more assist. 

However, Michael Olise is slowly starting to take more control. He has netted three goals at the Club World Cup, and several other of his statistics are highly impressive. While he is in the 96th percentile based on expected goals in target (2.42 xGOT), it's his playmaking abilities that make him stand out.

Namely, he is currently at the top of the list based on assists, but sharing the top spot with 13 more players. He sits at the top because of the highest expected assists (1.3 xA).

Olise and Kane will be the key to taking down the European champions. But, it definitely won’t be an easy task, despite their success so far.

Head-to-Head

The rise of PSG to the summit of European football has transformed their meetings with Bayern Munich into memorable games in modern football history. 

The two clubs have faced each other eight times since 2017, all in the Champions League. That includes the 2020 Final, which Bayern won 1-0 courtesy of a Kingsley Coman goal. 

PSG initially won their first two encounters in 1994 with 2-0 and 1-0 victories. However, they have since lost their last four meetings without scoring. The most recent was in November 2024. Bayern secured a 1-0 win in the league phase of the Champions League, courtesy of a first-half goal from Min-jae Kim.

PSG's last victory over Bayern came in April 2021 during the Champions League quarter-finals, a 3-2 win in Munich. This was also Bayern's last home European defeat before Inter Milan beat them 2-1 in the same stage this season.

Interestingly, both teams have scored in just two of the last eight encounters between these sides. These matches averaged just 2.25 goals per game.

Predicted Lineups

PSG's possible starting lineup:

Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Fabián; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia

Bayern Munich's possible starting lineup:

Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanišić; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Musiala, Gnabry; Kane. 

Odds Discussion & Pick

Two European heavyweights face off in the quarter-final. The European champions, PSG start as 2.20/+120 favorites against the six-time European Cup winners Bayern Munich. Given the squad and experience packed neatly into those in the red corner, Bayern's  +0.25 Asian handicap head start might interest a few punters.

This is the first time Bayern Munich has entered a game as the lesser-fancied team since May in the 2023/2024 season versus Real Madrid. The match ended 2-1 to the eventual winners from Spain. That was 57 competitive games ago. It’s a run that includes them kicking off as heavy favorites in a 1-0 victory over PSG in the Champions League in Munich in November. 

The goal markets are interesting given the attacking quality in these squads. Unsurprisingly, both teams to score is available at odds against, with the implied probability exceeding 60%. 

PSG and Bayern have lost one game apiece in the Club World Cup. The two 1-0 defeats to Botafogo and Benfica, respectively. They are the only two fixtures these sides have played at the tournament in which they failed to score. In the 2024/25 Bundesliga campaign, Bayern Munich failed to score only once in 34 fixtures. 

The Asian goal line for this mouthwatering quarter-final clash sits at 3.0. Four goals will be needed for anyone backing over on goals. A three-goal haul in 90 minutes returns stakes. 

Only one Bayern game at this tournament fell below the 2.5 goal line. That was a much-changed Bayern team playing in the 1-0 loss to Benfica. Our in-house data model projects an expected goal output of 3.74xG.

PICK: PSG to Win and Both Teams to Score (-260)

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