PSG vs. Real Madrid Predictions, Odds and Pick

Doug Ziefel Sports Betting Expert

15 minute read

It’s easy to see why some might consider this the true Club World Cup final. The reigning champions of Europe are set to face off against the team with the most Champions League titles in history.

It doesn’t get much larger than this matchup. In the United States, Paris Saint-Germain has continued their dominance from Europe, seemingly dispatching opponents with ease, with Bayern Munich being the latest team to fall victim to PSG's remarkable run in 2025.

Real Madrid has adapted well to Xabi Alonso’s new tactics, and some of their recent goals reflect the distinctive style he was known for during his two seasons at Bayer Leverkusen. There are also surprising standout players such as Gonzalo Garcia, alongside world-class goalkeepers Thibaut Courtois and Gianluigi Donnarumma, who have risen to the occasion when their teams needed them most. Predicting the outcome of this highly competitive match is challenging, with bookmakers giving a slight edge to the French side.

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Updated on 7/9/25

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Analysis of the Match

The winner of this semi-final will emerge as the favorite for the final. Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning European champions, will take on a Real Madrid team that has built a strong reputation for dominating continental football.

Luis Enrique's style of play has garnered significant praise in recent months, characterized by an interchangeable front three and a relentless work ethic off the ball. This will create an intriguing clash with a Real Madrid side that has looked impressive under Xabi Alonso. Real Madrid has scored in all five of their matches at the Club World Cup, averaging 2.2 goals per game.

They generated five significant chances in their victories over both Borussia Dortmund and Juventus, creating four more than their opponents in each match. Alonso will need his players to be more clinical against PSG, though their performances thus far indicate that they are more than capable of defying the bookmakers' expectations. Los Blancos have employed various formations throughout the tournament, making it intriguing to see how they will line up in this encounter.

Containing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Desire Doue will present a tough challenge. Trent Alexander-Arnold, as Real's right-back, will certainly have his work cut out for him but could also be pivotal in contributing to both defense and attack.

On the flip side, PSG also boasts dynamic full-backs. Achraf Hakimi ranks in the top 3% among full-backs in Europe's top five leagues for non-penalty goals, assists, progressive passes, and shot-creating actions. Meanwhile, Nuno Mendes has emerged as one of the standout players in his position. This creative play from deep has allowed PSG to score an average of 2.4 goals per game in this tournament.

PSG Analysis and Form

PSG has built its Club World Cup campaign on a solid defensive foundation, conceding just 0.2 goals per match and recording more clean sheets than any other team, with four shutouts to their name. While Gianluigi Donnarumma boasts an impressive 92.3% save rate, the true strength lies in how well Luis Enrique’s backline has performed under pressure.

Even with these impressive defensive statistics, the French side hasn't been passive. They rank third in expected goals (10.0), trailing only Manchester City and Bayern Munich, both of whom have already been eliminated. Following a challenging 2-0 victory over the Germans in the quarter-finals, PSG now holds an impeccable record in their last five matches against non-French European teams, with an aggregate score of 14-1. What sets them apart and makes them a pleasure to watch is their approach to ball progression. Les Rouge-et-Bleu lead the tournament in accurate long balls, averaging 38.2 per game.

Vitinha has emerged as a key player in the midfield, averaging 10.8 accurate long balls and over 100 passes per 90 minutes, serving as the engine for the team in the middle third. Their most significant challenge thus far came against Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. Despite finishing the match with two red cards, a late extra-time goal from Dembele secured a momentous victory over the German giants. Bayern was limited to only 0.66 xG, a stark contrast to their earlier clinical performances.

In conclusion, PSG appears more than capable of overcoming any team in world football. While the odds slightly favor the French side, with Real Madrid on the opposing end, anything can happen.

Real Madrid Analysis and Form

Real Madrid has been fairly average in attack by their own high standards, netting 11 goals from an expected goals (xG) total of 9.6, which translates to a conversion rate of 14.7%. They currently sit fourth in the tournament for big chances created and sixth in touches within the opponent's box.

While these statistics may seem commendable, they fall short of the expectations for a club like Los Blancos. Their 3-2 victory over Borussia Dortmund showcased both their capabilities and vulnerabilities. Real Madrid quickly established a 2-0 lead within the first 20 minutes and appeared to be in control until the latter stages of the match.

However, a late rally from Dortmund exposed some defensive weaknesses, leading to a goal in the 90+3 minute and a penalty in the 90+8 minute that made for a tense finish. Although they managed to hold on for the win, such lapses could prove costly against PSG.

Defensively, the Spaniards conceded four goals from an expected goals against (xGA) figure of 6.9 this summer—an acceptable level, yet not characteristic of elite play. Despite their efforts to tighten up after taking a two-goal lead, they still allowed 1.39 xG to Dortmund. Gonzalo Garcia has emerged as a vital player under Xabi Alonso's management.

With four goals and an xG of 2.88, he ranks among the most efficient performers in the competition. He is also willing to take risks, having attempted 11 shots (seven on target). Gonzalo will be crucial in finding the net against PSG.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain is closely contested, with the Spanish team claiming five victories compared to PSG's four, along with three matches that ended in draws.

Their most recent matchup occurred in the Round of 16 of the 2021/22 Champions League, where PSG secured a 1-0 win in the first leg. However, after initially taking the lead at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, they were ultimately eliminated, losing 3-2 on aggregate. Kylian Mbappé was responsible for both of PSG's goals in that tie. In their last four encounters, PSG has emerged victorious in two matches and managed a 2-2 draw in Spain during the group stage of the 2019/20 Champions League.

The first meeting between the two clubs took place in March 1993 during the quarter-finals of the UEFA Cup. Real Madrid won the first leg 3-1 in the Spanish capital, with current PSG manager Luis Enrique starting for Los Blancos. However, PSG overturned the deficit in the return leg, winning 4-1 to advance to the semi-finals.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

PSG's possible starting lineup:

Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz; Dembele, Doue, Kvaratskhelia.

Real Madrid's possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Fran Garcia; Valverde, Tchouameni, Arda Guler; Bellingham, Gonzalo Garcia, Vinicius Junior.

PSG's quarter-final victory over Bayern Munich came at a price, as red cards shown to Willian Pacho and Theo Hernandez will see them suspended for the semi-final.

However, PSG remains at full strength otherwise, with Ousmane Dembele's return to form enhancing their attacking options. Real Madrid will have to cope without summer signing Dean Huijsen, who is suspended after receiving a late red card in the quarter-final. Xabi Alonso must now decide between Raul Asencio, Eder Militao, or Jacobo Ramon to fill the defensive gap.

Additionally, Real Madrid will be missing David Alaba, Endrick, and Ferland Mendy due to long-term injuries. On a positive note, Eduardo Camavinga has returned to training and may make his tournament debut.

Alonso faces a selection dilemma at center forward. Kylian Mbappe netted his first goal against Borussia Dortmund, but playing time has been limited primarily because of Gonzalo Garcia's exceptional form.

Odds Discussion & Pick

Few encounters in modern football generate as much excitement as the 2025 clash between PSG and Real Madrid. This headliner in the Club World Cup semi-finals sees PSG slightly favored to win in 90 minutes, with odds set at+130.

The Asian Handicap leans toward the Parisians with a line of -0.25. For those considering a bet on Real Madrid at +0.25, any draw after 90 minutes would result in a partial payout. This matchup gains additional narrative weight as Kylian Mbappé prepares to face his former club. He was pivotal in the last encounter between these teams during the 2021/22 Champions League Round of 16, scoring both of PSG's goals before Real Madrid advanced with a 3-2 aggregate win.

Now donning Real's colors, Mbappé leads the market for anytime goalscorer, even though he hasn't started a match in this tournament due to fitness issues. Given the circumstances, could he be pushing for a return in this game?

Bookmakers expect goals to be scored, setting the Asian Goal Line at 3.0. This means bettors need a minimum of four goals for an "Overs" bet to succeed, while a total of three goals would result in a full stake refund. It's no surprise that "Both Teams to Score – Yes" is favored among bettors.

PSG vs. Real Madrid Pick

Bettors backing both teams to score haven't had much luck with PSG's recent performances. This wager hasn't been successful in any of their last seven matches across all competitions, but we believe that streak could be broken when they face Real Madrid.

Xabi Alonso has enjoyed an unbeaten start since taking charge of Real Madrid. Although the team drew their first game against Al Hilal, they have since won four matches convincingly. Real Madrid has found the net in all five of their matches in this competition, and the statistics indicate that this success is no fluke. Their average xG of 1.79 ranks among the best in the tournament, demonstrating their ability to create numerous scoring opportunities in the knockout stage, making them a threat to PSG.

This bet was successful when Real secured a 3-2 victory over Dortmund in the previous round. While Los Blancos have been impressive offensively, there has been room for opposing attackers to exploit as they adapt to Alonso's tactics. PSG boasts one of the most formidable attacking lineups in world football today.

The addition of Kvaratskhelia in January has further enhanced their dynamic front three. Dembele, Doue, and Barcola regularly contribute to Luis Enrique’s well-oiled attack, and they are expected to make an impact in the semi-final against Real.

Les Parisiens have managed to score in all but one of their last 20 competitive matches, averaging 2.55 goals per game while conceding just 0.9. However, Real has the potential to create more chances than PSG's average opponent.

PICK: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

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