Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions, Odds and Pick

The MetLife Stadium is set to host a rematch of the 2024 Champions League final as 15-time European champions Real Madrid take on one of Europe's most in-form teams.

Borussia Dortmund enter this clash unbeaten in their last 11 games across all competitions and boasting one of the tournament's most prolific strikers, Serhou Guirassy. 

This makes Dortmund's chances of defeating Real Madrid for the first time in 11 years as strong as they've been.

Under Xabi Alonso, Real Madrid's project is still taking shape. Although Las Merengues remain unbeaten, they have yet to reach their full potential. 

Despite this, bookmakers deem the Spanish giants favorites, mainly due to their pedigree, assigning them a 62% chance of victory in the Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund 1X2 market.

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(Featured Image Credit:  Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo)

Updated on 7/5/25

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Analysis of the Match

Real Madrid deserves its favorite tag heading into the clash with Dortmund. They were excellent against Juventus and have gotten the better of BVB in recent times. Therefore, we should expect Real to be in the ascendancy for the majority of this game. 

Los Blancos have employed the back three system that Xabi Alonso deployed at Bayer Leverkusen in their last two matches, and this has seemingly brought the best out of the group. 

Federico Valverde has been one of the standout performers. The midfielder has been involved in all facets of the game. He also poses a significant goal threat, netting twice and taking a total of 14 attempts at this tournament. The Uruguayan will be a busy man against Dortmund.

Kylian Mbappe could also be in line to start this game. The maverick Frenchman had been sidelined with illness but played over 20 minutes off the bench against Juventus. His pace could cause problems for Dortmund’s high defensive line. 

Dortmund are accustomed to controlling possession in the Bundesliga, but that hasn’t always been the case since they landed in the USA for this tournament. Despite being the underdogs, Monterrey kept 58% of the ball. Mamelodi Sundowns also managed 59% possession against BVB.

Although Dortmund haven’t been at their brilliant best, Niko Kovac will have confidence in his system. He made the switch to a 3-4-21 shape following the international break in March. Since then, Barcelona has been the only team to beat them in 15 competitive matches. During that impressive run, BVB has scored an average of 2.62 goals per game. 

Kovac’s men know this is a very tough test, but they can rely on their attackers to conjure up opportunities. We should see an open second half, with both teams capable of scoring.

Real Madrid Analysis and Form

Real Madrid was one of the pre-tournament favorites to lift the Club World Cup, so reaching the quarter-finals was a minimum expectation. However, Xabi Alonso will be delighted with how his team has improved as the tournament has progressed.

Alonso has one of the most talented squads in world football at his disposal, but patience is required as he attempts to instill his style of play. Real has settled on a back three in their last two matches, and it has seen them deliver their best performances.

Los Blancos beat Juventus 1-0 in the last round but created a plethora of chances that should have yielded more goals.  Real had 21 attempts, 15 more than their opponents, and were credited with creating five big chances.

Real were also impressive in their final group game as they beat RB Salzburg 3-0. They are unbeaten heading into the clash with Dortmund, and Kylian Mbappe’s return will give them a further boost. 

There are still question marks about exactly how Alonso’s Real will set up throughout the season. However, Los Blancos certainly have the players to thrive in a system that emphasizes quick transitions and midfield dominance. 

Dortmund’s defense will need to be tighter. They have conceded an average of one goal per game in the competition thus far, the joint-most goals conceded in 90 minutes (along with Chelsea) of the teams competing in the quarter-finals.

Borussia Dortmund Analysis and Form

Like Real, Borussia Dortmund is unbeaten. Niko Kovac’s side hasn’t tasted defeat in any of their last 10 competitive matches, but their performances at the Club World Cup have been slightly below par.

In the last round, Dortmund stormed to a two-goal lead against Monterrey thanks to the goalscoring exploits of Serhou Guirassy. However, BVB was under pressure after that. Kovac's team had just 42% possession in the match and managed six attempts. 

The 1-0 win over Ulsan in the final group game was by far Dortmund’s most impressive display of the tournament so far. They had 25 more shots than their opponents and 20 more than they managed in the group game vs Mamelodi Sundowns.

Dortmund will need to improve all over the pitch when they face Real Madrid. The likes of Sule and Bensebaini will have to be alert in defense as they aim to prevent Los Blancos from finding space in the channels.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Rudiger, Huijsen, Fran Garcia;  Alexander-Arnold, Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Güler; Mbappé, Vinicius Junior.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:

Kobel; Süle, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Nmecha, Gross, Svensson; Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy.

Odds Discussion & Best Bet

The bookmakers place Xabi Alonso's side as the dominant market favorite. Dortmund's Asian Handicap head start of +1.0 could prove tempting for those who fancy a closer contest as the final eight teams line up for a shot at the semis. 

The -1.0 Asian handicap line effectively requires Los Blancos to secure at least a two-goal win for the bet to win. Real failed to meet that margin with the 1-0 win over Juventus in the previous round. The market still expects a more open match here. Dortmund’s presence is the reason why. 

The Asian goal line is 3.0. Backing over the line requires at least four goals in the 90 minutes to win, while exactly three will see stakes refunded. Our in-house predictive model forecasts a goal output of 3.54. Real Madrid account for 2.42xG of that tally, underlining their position as the most likely to be on the front foot and assume the role of aggressors. 

The bookies are expecting goals at both ends. The implied probability of the odds is over 60%. Borussia Dortmund have only failed to score once in their last 11 matches (0-0 in the CWC opener against Fluminense), a potential indicator that this contest is likely to be rather lively in terms of goals.

BEST BET: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-111)

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