Seattle Sounders vs PSG Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

PSG will face the Seattle Sounders on Monday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match action from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

Paris Saint-Germain's unexpected defeat to Botafogo has significantly altered the dynamics in Group B. The upcoming match is crucial for the reigning European champions, as they must secure a win. PSG has a superior goal difference compared to Atlético Madrid, with +3 compared to -2. However, anything less than a victory could seriously jeopardize their chances of advancing to the knockout stage. While the Seattle Sounders will have the advantage of home support, they are on the brink of elimination despite showcasing promising attacking plays in their previous match. In terms of predictions, bookmakers have placed considerable confidence in the French champions, giving them an 88% chance of winning (-750 on the moneyline) in the Seattle Sounders vs. PSG matchup. The odds imply only a 6.6% chance of a Seattle Sounders victory, highlighting the significant challenge facing the MLS side.

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Analysis of the Match

Perhaps unexpectedly, the stakes are high for the reigning Champions League holders on Matchday Three. 

On Friday, PSG became the first European champions since Chelsea in 2012 to be toppled by South American opposition. Despite dominating possession in Pasadena against Botafogo, PSG were unable to break through in the absence of their injured star, Ousmane Dembélé. 

Botafogo's steadfast defense and a fortuitous goal from Igor Jesus left PSG with no margin for error as they headed to Seattle.

For the French side, the path is clear. A victory would guarantee progression to the knockout stages, making other results irrelevant. A draw, however, would leave them reliant on the outcome between Atlético Madrid and Botafogo, while a defeat would result in elimination.

Despite two tournament defeats, the Seattle Sounders have shown their competitiveness. Buoyed by home fans, they've demonstrated the ability to challenge elite teams and will be eager to upset PSG's ambitions. 

Albert Rusnak's recent goal highlights their attacking potential. The midfield battle will dictate the match's balance.

For PSG, composure and clinical finishing are essential. Seattle is known for exploiting turnovers and quick transitions, which could pose a significant threat. A win for the Sounders would be historic, securing their progression and adding drama to this final matchday.

Seattle Sounders Analysis and Form

Seattle Sounders lost 3-1 to Atlético Madrid on Thursday afternoon at Lumen Field, a result that leaves the MLS side all but eliminated from the FIFA Club World Cup. 

Sounders must pull off a major upset against Paris Saint-Germain to keep their hopes alive. It's a feat achieved by only eight teams this year, five of which were in the Champions League. It is more than a miracle, considering bookmakers assign a mere 6.7% probability to the MLS side's victory. 

Despite their spirited efforts and attacking intent, the Sounders have 64 touches in the opposition box over two matches. That's just five fewer than PSG. 

A lack of clinical finishing and avoidable defensive errors proved decisive in their encounters against Botafogo and Atlético Madrid.

Currently, the Sounders are experiencing a dip in form. They have failed to secure a win in their last four outings across all competitions while conceding 11 goals. 

Between March and April this season, they endured a five-match winless streak in MLS play (two draws, three losses), allowing nine goals in that spell.

Given the circumstances, merely scoring against the European champions, PSG, might be the most realistic objective for the Sounders in this daunting matchup.

PSG Analysis and Form

Not since 2012 has a Champions League holder been toppled by a South American side. 

Corinthians shocked Chelsea that year. PSG's loss to Botafogo marked their first goalless outing since their March defeat to Liverpool in the Champions League. It was their eighth loss this season. 

Up next, they face the Seattle Sounders, ranked second from the bottom among CONCACAF participants. While bookmakers are confident in a comfortable PSG victory, Luis Enrique's squad must rediscover their clinical touch in front of goal. 

Against Atlético Madrid, Paris impressed with a 4-0 triumph, but they faltered against Botafogo. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's early effort was among the few bright spots in a scrappy first half. PSG dominated possession but struggled to convert chances. 

As Matchday Three looms, only Boca Juniors are stronger favorites by the bookmakers, which should reassure any concerned PSG supporters.

Head to Head 

Seattle Sounders will face French opposition for the very first time. The American club was established in 2007 and began competing in the MLS in 2009. Therefore, in the way of competitive fixtures against overseas opponents, there's not much to shout about.

In the Sounders' relatively short history, six players of French origin have represented the club. None of which, though, ever registered an appearance in Ligue 1, France's top flight. 

It's a similar story for the Champions League holders. Not once have the Parisians faced an American side. A fixture of firsts lies ahead as Ligue 1's best side prepares for battle at Lumen field, home of Seattle Sounders.

Only Timothy Weah, who recently commanded a $12.5m fee from Juventus and featured in their opening MD1 victory versus Al-Ain, is the only American to ever play for PSG.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:

Frei, Tolo, Roldán, Ragen, Kim Ki-hee, Roldan, Vargas, Rusnák, Kent, Ferreira; Musovski.

PSG's possible starting lineup:

Donnarumma; Mendes, Pacho, Marquinhos, Hakimi, Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves, Doue, Barcola, Kvaratskhelia.

Resting Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes might have had some part to play in the defeat to Botafogo. However, rotation will be key for anyone with a desire to go far in the tournament this summer. With the need for three points, we can expect to see both back in the starting lineup in place of Hernandez and Beraldo.

It's a similar story for João Neves and Fabian Ruiz, who missed out on the starting lineup versus the Brazilians. In forward areas, Bradley Barcola is yet to start either of PSG's two fixtures and might feature here from the start.

Albert Rusnak pulled the trigger three times versus Atlético Madrid, scoring once. 

He'll be hopeful of registering another Club World Cup goal for his club and should feature once again from the start. Ryan Kent was dropped to the bench versus Atleti, coming on for the final half an hour. 

The former Liverpool and Rangers winger is in line to start the game in an attempt to put a point on the board and give the home support something to cheer about.

Odds/Betting Discussion

The Seattle Sounders vs PSG odds didn't change much from opening day and remain heavily in favor of the Parisians. The French giants were priced from the start at a symbolic 1.13 / -769. The odds imply an 88.5% chance of winning, aligning with what our model BETSiE predicts (81.9%). Accompanying the heavy favorites tag, the bookmakers have handed a -2.25 Asian Handicap on the recently crowned Champions League victors.

Even after losing both games in the competition, the odds on Seattle have shortened. Their performance in both games was excellent considering the competition, but the bookies still give them just a 6.7% chance of winning.

The Sounders scored in both games, giving us a pattern to follow. Upon facing Botafogo, the MLS club generated a higher Expected Goals total than PSG and, most importantly, scored.

This trend makes the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) - Yes market worth considering, especially as the odds offer reasonable value compared to other markets. 

The goal line is set at 3.25, which appears slightly inflated. Of course, PSG could easily go over the line alone, but the odds are not worth it, given so many goals need to fall in your favor. BETSiE predicts a total of 3.53 goals in this game. The Parisians are supposed to chip in with 2.81 goals.

Opponents Now Extra Motivated Against European Champions PSG

"Obviously, we are frustrated with the result. It was a very tight game; Botafogo defended very well, like almost no team in Ligue 1 or the Champions League," said Luis Enrique after the 1-0 defeat to Botafogo on MD2. 

"Botafogo is the team that has defended best against us this season, whether in the league or the Champions League." High praise indeed.

The manager, when speaking to the club website, explained, "It was a tough game from start to finish, and that's normal. Playing against us is an extra source of motivation for our opponents. We need to be better. That's been our message since the start of the week. Normally, these matches are difficult." 

The Seattle Sounders will now face a PSG side following their defeat, and with a point to prove.

BEST BET: PSG Win and Both Teams To Score (+200)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain